Musings ... and assorted thoughts

I've written about financial stuff for a number of years and find it fascinating.
I've larned a lot about a lot of things and ...

>I thought you don't use any of that stuff.
I don't ... but they're still fascinating.
However, if I'd like to get a feel for whether my particular stocks is gonna go up or down.

  • I'd prefer to look at the Baltic Index to see if shipping stocks might go up or down.
    I prefer that to looking at the crossing of moving averages.

  • I prefer to see how much money I've made over the past year to decide whether I should withdraw more or less from my portfolio.
    I prefer that to considering some "safe" withdrawal rate, like 4%.

  • I prefer to look at foreign markets and DOW futures before local markets open, to get a feel for whether my stocks may go up or down.
    I prefer that to extrapolating from historical data, extracting some Mean and Standard Deviation.

  • I like to look at other stocks, similar to the ones I own, to see what's happening in that sector.
    I like that better than attacking the stock price with CAPM or some fair value methodology.

  • I like to take a peek at preMarket trades so test the mood of investors.
    I like that better than dragging out a variety if technical indicators.

  • I prefer ...
>So what are you trying to say?
Nothing in particular. I just wanted to get that off my chest.

>Are you happy now?

>So why has your portfolio lost a bundle this year?
Shhh ...