Market Musings
For I dip't into the future
Far as human eye could see
Saw a vision of the markets
And all the wonders that would be ...

Let's compare the evolution of a $1K portfolio over the past month with that same portfolio over the month ending in June, 2002 and then let's ...

>And see what happened next
Yes. That makes it interesting.

>Interesting to whom?
Pay attention.
If we do that comparison we'd get this:

>Aha! Both down about 11%, right?
Yes, so now we ...

>You look to see what happened next, right?
Yes. If we extrapolate the current DOW (@ 10,963) for another few weeks, using the daily returns from June, 2002 we get this:

>Is that legal?
Sure! Everybuddy knows that the future is a perfect replica of the past.

Here are a few more:

>The future looks bleak. Aren't there any good extrapolations?
Here's one:

Of course, predicting a single number ain't good, so we might generate a possible distribution of DOW values, like so:

>That makes me feel warm all over ...

There's a spreadsheet where you can play the game. Just click on the picture: