I was reading about irrational decision-making and wondered if ...
>If you were irrational, right?
And I get this, comparing the average return on the last day of October to the average of all end-of-month returns.
I look at the difference between these two averages and see that Hobgoblins actually like halloween.
With few exceptions, stocks have larger gains on Halloween than on other end-of-month days.
There's a spreadsheet to play with, here: halloween.xls
Well, we decided to test the idea and got this, comparing the total (cumulative) gain fo the period (Nov-to-Apr) and that for the period (May-to-Oct).
We looked at the 10-years from Jan 1, 1999 to Jan 1, 2009 ... and got this for various country indexes:
>Uh ... I see it's getting close to the end of October. Excuse me while I Buy some stocks ...
Oh, I forgot to mention the other spreadsheet: halloween2.xls