the gummy-rate a continuation of Part III

If you just want to calculate an Annualized return (without all the bumpf which follows), go here

Suppose we invest $1,000 each year, for five years, and our portfolio is now worth $6,523.33 (the last $1K investment having been made one year ago).

We start our investment portfolio with $P0 and

  • make investments of A1, A2, A3, ... AN
  • for time periods, in MONTHS, of T1, T2, T3, ... TN and
  • our current portolio is $P and
  • we wish to calculate a PERSONAL Monthly Rate of Return at the end of T months.

>Personal?
A monthly return that reflects my own strategies, market timing, my investments and withdrawals, my ...

>Okay, I get the idea.

This MONTHLY return, R, must satisfy:

(1)       f(R) = P0(1+R)T + A1(1+R)T1 + A2(1+R)T2 + A3(1+R)T3 + ... + AN(1+R)TN - P = 0

where the original amount, P0, has been invested for T months and the first investment, A1, for T1 months and the next investment, A2, for T2 months and the next investment ...

>Okay, I get the idea ... and I assume that an "A" is negative if that amount is withdrawn.
Yes.

We have a linear approximation for R, namely:

(2)       RLinear = { P - P0 -Σ An} / {P0 + ΣAnTn }

obtained from (1) by replacing things like (1+R)T by the linear approximation 1+TR.

To keep things neat, we'll relabel (1+R), calling it x, so we must solve, in place of (1):

(3)       F(x) = P0xT + A1xT1 + A2xT2 + A3xT3 + ... + ANxTN - P = P0xT + ΣAnxTn - P = 0

where our linear approximation, a la Equation (2), now looks like:

(4)       x0 = 1 + RLinear = 1 + { P - P0 -Σ An} / {P0 + ΣAnTn }

Now we do a single Newton Iteration, starting with x0 and we get - voila!:

(5)      

>What! I prefer Modified Dietz!
Wait just a minute ... we'll make it better.

>What about pictures? I like ...
Patience.
First, we notice that the starting value, our first approximation, namely x0, can be Linear or Dietz formula or anything else.

>It looks real bad!
We need a little ritual. Here's an example; a picture of a spreadsheet which does the calculations:

This Exact and Newton annualized returns are independent of the values of the portfolio after each transaction. However, if we invent portfolio values - and that's what the spreadsheet does - we can compute a Return rate for each of the ten transactions and get an annualized Modified-Dietz-type Return. Would you like to play with the spreadsheet? The numbers are generated randomly and every F9 re-calculation gives a new set and it's great fun and ...

>zzz ZZZ

Of course, you could just use XIRR, right?

>zzz ZZZ