a continuation of Waves? not exactly ...
Anyway, I started looking for Elliott Waves within the S&P 500 ... those which have a particular structure:
FIVE up cycles followed by TWO down cycles:
>And did you find any?
Since we've been talking Waves, I guess we should also talk about Elliott Waves, |invented
discovered by ...
>What do you know about Elliott Waves?
Well, actually, I ... uh ...
>Just as I thought! You write a tutorial and know nothing! I think you should ...
Pay attention; we're learning:
R. N. Elliott (the U.S. State Department appointed him Chief Accountant for Nicaragua),
was stricken with a debilitating case of pernicious anemia, became bedridden and was forced into retirement at age
>Isn't that when you retired?
Pay attention! He then studied yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, hourly and half-hourly charts of the
various market indices covering 75 years of historical data.
According to Elliott, event sequences occur in waves, from the very long (lasting hundreds of
years, called Grand Super Cycle) to the very short (called sub-minuette, lasting maybe a few minutes) and,
if you look carefully at the larger waves, you find smaller, or shorter, versions embedded within and ...
>Smaller waves inside the bigger waves?
Yes, apparently, and they're similar in structure. Sort of like fractals where a microscopic
examination of fractals reveals they are made up of similar, smaller designs. (Click on the picture to see a magnification
of that part of the Mandelbrot Set within the wee red circle.)
Ralph Nelson Elliott
Well, this is what I did:
>Yeah, yeah ... did you find any?
- I look at the S&P closing value in the month of January, 1930 and compare it to all monthly closing values from
two years before (Jan, 1928) to two years after (Jan, 1932).
- I then move to Feb, 1930 and compare the closing value to the other values in a 4-year period centered on Feb/30.
- I then move to Mar, 1930 and compare the closing value to the other values in a 4-year period centered on Mar/30.
- I then move to Apr, 1930 and ...
I figure that, if there are Elliott Waves of the 5up/3dn variety, I should look at those months where the S&P close is
the largest value in the 4-year time period.
>Okay! Okay! Did you find any?
I used a spreadsheet which looked something like
this (except that the one I used only had monthly gains, back
I found pretty pictures which look like ...
>Do you see 5up/3dn?
I'm still looking ...
>The spreadsheet ... can I play?
Okay, but remember that it's a draft and it looks for shorter-term waves (measured over about 70 days) and
it may or may not be useful and I can't guarantee that ...
>Yeah, okay. So?
... but there is a money-guarantee on its accuracy and ...
Okay, then RIGHT-click here
and Save Target.