2017 Predictions Contest
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
My Entry:
I'm fairly bullish and I wanna say an 8% rise for the two indexes...
DOW: 21,500
TSX: 17,000
GOLD: 1400
OIL: 65
CAD: 80
I'm fairly bullish and I wanna say an 8% rise for the two indexes...
DOW: 21,500
TSX: 17,000
GOLD: 1400
OIL: 65
CAD: 80
Cheers
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Yes and gold/oil futures are from the CME Group (30 day).LadyGeek wrote:I assume it's the prices quoted here: Yahoo Finance
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Happy New Year to all !
I peered into the crystal ball and ...
DOW: 20980
TSX: 17541
GOLD: $1262
OIL: $68.23
CAD: $0.7865
I peered into the crystal ball and ...
DOW: 20980
TSX: 17541
GOLD: $1262
OIL: $68.23
CAD: $0.7865
Last edited by robertro on 05 Jan 2017 07:55, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
My guestimates:
DOW: 21150
TSX: 16150
GOLD: 1200
OIL: 58.25
CAD: 0.7150
DOW: 21150
TSX: 16150
GOLD: 1200
OIL: 58.25
CAD: 0.7150
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
DOW: 20002
TSX: 16002
GOLD: 1147
OIL: 58
CAD: 0.73
TSX: 16002
GOLD: 1147
OIL: 58
CAD: 0.73
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Going for a combination of LadyGeek's "recommend[ation of] using the same precision as kcowan uses in his spreadsheet. It's a close contest, the extra places are needed to avoid a tie..." and a quasi-loopy-binary? modification of adrian2's inspirational repetition of a single digit:
DOW 18181
TSX 15151
GLD 1212
OIL 47.47
CAD .7878
- Peculiar_Investor
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Rather than throwing darts, I'm primed with another approach
Dow: 21397
TSX: 17783
Gold: 1141.1
Oil: 53.23
CAD: .6983
Dow: 21397
TSX: 17783
Gold: 1141.1
Oil: 53.23
CAD: .6983
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
- SoninlawofGus
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
After a respectable 8th in 2015, I really sucked at this last year, finishing a dismal 34th (and far off on every prediction). Good thing I didn't base my investments on that (and won't this year either). I'll try again...
DOW: 18365
TSX: 13946
GOLD: 1290
OIL: 65
CAD: .765
One thing missing in the contest, probably mentioned by others over the years, is a bond metric. That's probably because the numbers do not vary much. But predicting up, down, or sideways might be interesting.
DOW: 18365
TSX: 13946
GOLD: 1290
OIL: 65
CAD: .765
One thing missing in the contest, probably mentioned by others over the years, is a bond metric. That's probably because the numbers do not vary much. But predicting up, down, or sideways might be interesting.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I have had a request for S&P in the past and I said that I would include anything that there was widespread support for by the group. So I am open to what and how the participants suggest we include. Remember that anything included gets into the winning average as well.
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
The S&P 500 is a far better benchmark than the Dow so better represents the US equity market. That said, it's probably too late to change for 2017 as everyone would have to do careful analysis and recalculation throw darts again to update their predictions. Defer to the 2018 contest?kcowan wrote:I have had a request for S&P in the past and I said that I would include anything that there was widespread support for by the group. So I am open to what and how the participants suggest we include. Remember that anything included gets into the winning average as well.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
DOW: 21800
TSX: 16540
GOLG: 1280
OIL: 58.40
CAD: 73.80
TSX: 16540
GOLG: 1280
OIL: 58.40
CAD: 73.80
Last edited by schmuck on 11 Jan 2017 17:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I don't think it's too late to change. Here's why the DOW should be replaced: Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average Is UselessPeculiar_Investor wrote:The S&P 500 is a far better benchmark than the Dow so better represents the US equity market. That said, it's probably too late to change for 2017 as everyone would have to do careful analysis and recalculation throw darts again to update their predictions. Defer to the 2018 contest?kcowan wrote:I have had a request for S&P in the past and I said that I would include anything that there was widespread support for by the group. So I am open to what and how the participants suggest we include. Remember that anything included gets into the winning average as well.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I'm for S&P500.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
S&P500 2020poedin wrote:
Going for a combination of LadyGeek's "recommend[ation of] using the same precision as kcowan uses in his spreadsheet. It's a close contest, the extra places are needed to avoid a tie..." and a quasi-loopy-binary? modification of adrian2's inspirational repetition of a single digit:
DOW 18181
TSX 15151
GLD 1212
OIL 47.47
CAD .7878
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
We have a week to make the change. All in favour?
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
S&P 500: 2393
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I'm against changing it for this year, because some people who have already entered may not revisit this thread in time to find out.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I'm against too, it's a free choice.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
S&P 500: 2345.67LadyGeek wrote:I assume it's the prices quoted here: Yahoo Finance
DOW: 21,201
TSX: 16,789
GOLD: 1,234
OIL: 56.78
CAD: 0.7890
I recommend using the same precision as kcowan uses in his spreadsheet. It's a close contest, the extra places are needed to avoid a tie.
OIL is to 2 decimal places (56.78), CAD to 4 (0.7890).
==============================
Good point. If we don't get everyone, I agree that deferring until next year is appropriate.Spudd wrote:I'm against changing it for this year, because some people who have already entered may not revisit this thread in time to find out.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
That'd be a helluva drop on the DOW. Maybe you lost a digit ?schmuck wrote:DOW: 2180
TSX: 16540
GOLG: 1280
OIL: 58.40
CAD: 73.80
In terms of the contest choices, I'd vote for sticking with the "DOW for NOW"
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
DOW: 16919
TSX: 11919
GOLD: 919
OIL: 69.19
CAD: .6919
I will call this "The Year Where Nothing Made Cents"
Congrats on winning the 2016 contest, Nisser.
rokman
TSX: 11919
GOLD: 919
OIL: 69.19
CAD: .6919
I will call this "The Year Where Nothing Made Cents"
Congrats on winning the 2016 contest, Nisser.
rokman
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
ThanksKoogie wrote: That'd be a helluva drop on the DOW. Maybe you lost a digit ?
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Last chance! You have until 9:30 EST Monday to make your wild guesses. I notice a few obvious omissions.
For the fun of it...Keith
- optionable68
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Thanks for the reminderkcowan wrote:Last chance! You have until 9:30 EST Monday to make your wild guesses. I notice a few obvious omissions.
I hereby pledge that I will do much better then I did in 2016 but not as good as 2015
DOW: 21010
TSX: 16450
GOLD: 1205
OIL: 61
CAD: .7575
And I vote "yes" for S&P to be used over the DOW in the 2018 contest
3-time winner of FWF Annual Stock Market Predictions contest