Technical analysis anyone?

Discuss your favourite picks, broker, and trading or investment style.

Interested in technical analysis?

Yes, use it all the time.
15
12%
Yes, but not seriously.
21
17%
Yes, I'm just learning about it.
18
14%
No, unfamiliar with it.
11
9%
No, tried it but don't use it.
5
4%
No, it's a load o' crap!
51
40%
"Get a life and stop asking stupid questions!" (as per Shakespeares' request)
6
5%
 
Total votes: 127

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MDunleavy
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

AUDUSD is in consolidation mode between 1.0245 and 1.0452 after taking out falling trend line resistance set from late February. We do not see an actionable trade setup here for now and will wait for the pair to offer greater directional conviction to look for entry opportunities.27 April 2012 09:33 GMT [By dailyfx]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

--The NZD/USD pair did very little at the end of the day on Friday. After first rising, and then falling – it never really went anywhere. The doji for the session shows how much trouble it is having as buyers try to prop the pair up at the 0.75 support zone.
--With the recent action, it looks as if the market is ready to fall again. The risks in Europe certainly have the markets in no mood to take on massive risk, so to think this pair would fall is hardly a stretch. On a daily close below the 0.75 level – we are sellers. Also, if we get a bounce, we are fading it on the first sign of weakness.[By fxempire]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

--USDCHF's upward movement from 0.9043 extends to as high as 0.9769. Further rise is still possible next week, and next target would be at 0.9900 area.
--Support is at 0.9500, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.
--For long term analysis, USDCHF has formed a cycle bottom at 0.8931 on weekly chart. Further rise towards 1.0000 would likely be seen over next several weeks.[Written by ForexCycle]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

--USD/CAD: Our core bullish outlook for this market has been more than reaffirmed over the past couple of weeks, with the market accelerating back above parity and towards 1.0500 thus far.
--While we continue to project significant upside over the medium-term, risks over the short-term appear to be tilted to the downside so that the market can correct from overbought readings on the daily chart.
--However, any setbacks should now be very well supported ahead of parity and in the 1.0100 area.[dailyfx]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

--The USD/JPY pair shot straight up during the week as the dollar found its footing against most currencies for the week.
--The 80 handle continues to be the epicenter of resistance for our money, and has still price down.
--The level won’t be considered broken out of it until we cross and close above the 80.50 level.
--This area is a clear top to the resistance area on the daily charts.
--Because of this, we are not ready to go along yet but believe that a break of the top of this week’s candle would be an excellent buy signal.
--As for selling, we are looking to do that now. [By FX Empire Analyst]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

The Dollar Index (DXY), which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trade partners including the euro and the yen, advanced 2 percent, the most since December, to 83.285. It touched 83.431, the highest level since June 1.
==================================
Dollar Index [DXY]: This forum had the conviction to be a $ bull for the last 1 year or so when all expert commentary was bearish on the currency. The buck hasn’t disappointed by its performance either, having rallied from 73.26 in May 2011 to a close of 82.9420 last week, just under its previous high at 83.6700. Can the $ rally higher?
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

--EUR/USD Weekly Outlook and Trading Idea Outlook:
--As expected EUR/USD continued lower and almost reached the 1.2145 Fibonacci level (the low recorded last week was 1.2163).
--Now, despite the Friday's bounce, the daily chart remains very negative and I expect further weakness.
--We may see some choppy sideways action first (most likely between 1.2145 and 1.2345) because the market has become quite oversold.
--Only a rise abv 1.2430/40 will negate the immediate bearish outlook and will risk larger recovery twd 1.2670 before the downtrend from the May 2011 top resumes....
--Strategy: Holding short from 1.2600 is favored. Stop=1.2450. [By ibtimes]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

–Please note that overall GBP/USD has been in a very volatile sideways mode since January 2009.
–A break below 1.5269 and then the low of January 13th i.e.
–1.5233 may indicate a break below the lower support line.
–Please check this weekly chart of GBP/USD.
–Strategies for Trading GBP/USD (British Pound-Dollar): s mentioned above, our overall outlook for GBP/USD stays bearish but initially we stay neutral to expect some volatile sideway moves and even the possibilities of some further upward consolidation can’t be ignored.
–We are avoiding longs for GBP/USD right now, considering the overall bearish outlook.
–As mentioned above, initially we will be watching for the breaks of mentioned resistance and supports for the next week's trade decisions.
– [By forexabode.]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

—The Australian dollar showed some movement in both directions but was almost unchanged over the week, as AUD/USD closed at 1.0399.
—Highlights of the upcoming week include Building Approvals and Private Capital Expenditure.
—The pair continues to trade in a narrow range following mixed economic releases in both the US and Australia, as the pair showed some fluctuation but was unable to sustain any breakout.
—I am neutral on AUD/USD.
—After impressive gains this summer, the aussie has been in a holding pattern for the past few weeks.
—Given the turmoil in Europe and mixed data out of the US and Australia, the choppiness could continue.
—However, if the US economy produces more weak data and there is further talk of QE intervention, look for the Australian dollar to make some gains.[Written by forexcrunch]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

–Euro/dollar had a positive week, riding on the determination of the ECB in using its firepower to counter the Spanish crisis.
–The upcoming week is even more important, with the German constitutional court’s ruling needed to enable the bailouts.
–There are quite a few additional regular indicators and special events.
–Will the rally continue?.
–I am neutral on EUR/USD.
–After the huge rally that sent the pair to the highest levels since May, there is room for some correction.
–The rise came on a better than expected ECB decision, and high hopes for QE3 in the US.
–These hopes could lead to a disappointment, countering the big steps that Europe is taking to counter the crisis.
–Written by Forexcrunch.
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

–The GBP/USD pair rose during the session on Friday and even managed to break through the 1.63 level at one point.
–However, by the end of the day we saw a pullback that formed a shooting star.
–This pair has been overbought for a while, and as such a pullback would be welcomed by many of the buyers at this point.
–We still see the 1.60 level was massively supportive at this point time, and hope that a pullback is a chance to start buying this market somewhere closer to that level.
–However, we managed to break the top of the shooting star from Friday, then of course is a massively bullish signal as well.
–Even if we do see a breakdown of price over the next day or two, we are not interested in selling as the central bank equation of this currency pair is pretty straightforward: the Federal Reserve is looking to expand its quantitative easing, and the Bank of England is looking to sit still with its rates.
–Because of this, there is a positive swapped going long this pair. [Written by fxempire]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

–USDCHF: With USDCHF reversing almost all of its corrective recovery gains the past week, the big risk is for it to return to the 0.9238 level.
–If this occurs in the new week, further declines will shape up towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low with breach targeting the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level.
–Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view.
–On the upside, it will have to return above the 0.
–9424 level to annul its current weakness and resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482.
–A breach will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level.
On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.
[Written by traderslaboratory]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

–The AUD/USD pair initially fell during the week, but found a bit of a bid later on and formed a hammer.
–This is right after to shooting stars, and is in the middle of a massive consolidation area.
–We figure that this pair will be very difficult to trade, although it does look bullish at the moment.
–As for a longer-term point of view, the Reserve Bank of Australia is slated to cut rates at least once if not twice.
–This should weigh upon the Australian dollar going forward, as well as all the global risks out there.
–However, it appears that as far as longer-term trader concerned, we need to break above the 1.06 level to have complete clarity higher.
–If we managed to break down below the 1.0150 level however, we figure that this pair will absolutely crumble.
[Written by fxempire]
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MDunleavy
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

EURUSD Analysis 10th November 2012 – P&F Update...

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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

•The dollar index continues to remain firmly bullish on the daily chart, moving higher and breaking above the 81 region, as the currency of first reserve continues to strengthen following the U.S. election.
•This firm move higher for the U.S. dollar has been accompanied by sustained buying volume on both the daily and the three day chart, which have both provided additional momentum to the move higher, following the key breakout from the sideways congestion created during September and October, which saw the index trade in a narrow range.
•This platform of support is now providing the necessary springboard, and with the Hawkeye Heatmap now firmly green, the U.S. dollar looks set to continue higher in the short to medium term.
•Should the three day trend also transition through to bullish in due course, then we can expect to see the index climb to test the 83.00 region and beyond with consequent weakness across the major currency pairs, along with commodities. [Written by forexpros]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

—The GBP/USD fell friday to trade at 1.6010 after the Bank of England yesterday held rates and policy.
—Today, industrial production and manufacturing production both disappointed markets reporting well below forecast, casting a greater doubt on the UK economy.
—Just a few days ago, the UK downgraded growth for 2013 and Chancellor Osborne, presented the Autumn statement with a negative forecast. [Written by forextv]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

—USDCHF Analysis - December 17, 2012
—USDCHF breaks below 0.9214 support, suggesting that the downtrend from 0.9971 has resumed.
—Further decline could be expected next week, and next target would be at 0.9000 area.
—Resistance levels are at 0.9300 and 0.9400, as long as these levels hold, the downtrend from 0.9511 will continue.
—For long term analysis, USDCHF had formed a cycle top at 0.9971 on weekly chart.
—Further decline to 0.8500 area would likely be seen over the next several months.[Written by ForexCycle]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by MDunleavy »

USDJPY Analysis - December 29, 2012
—USDJPY's upward movement from 77.14 extends to as high as 86.63.
—Further rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 88.00 area.
—Support is at 85.50 followed by 84.50, as long as these levels hold, the uptrend will continue.
—For long term analysis, USDJPY had formed a cycle bottom at 77.14 on weekly chart.
—Further rise to 90.00 area is possible over the next several weeks. [ Written by ForexCycle]
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Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Post by tidal »

Technical Stock Analysis (MACD) 1. Physics 0.

Over at frequently-linked-to-FWF "Grampa's Favourite Climate Blog", they are busy discussing the application of Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) technical stock analysis filters to physical reality.

Conclusion? Physics r teh loser. MACD for the win!!! Climate science R A SELL!!!

Glowing approval in the comments section over at Grampa's*. (* Multi-time winner of "Bloggie" award for "Best Science Blog", as voted by its readers.)

ycmtsu

Edit add: Bwahahaha. Just noticed the banner ad that popped up over at Grampa's.
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