Housing Bust 2011

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby ghariton » 19 Dec 2011 18:49

AltaRed wrote:Seems a bit perverse to hear BoA talk about this...but take heed none the less

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/r ... story.html

It irritates me to see almost the entire article focus on "the" Canadian market. Our various local markets do not usually move in tandem, and each deserves its own analysis. I guess I see the benefit of a "national" discussion as a starting point. But I think it is misleading to give it so much space.

(I do recognize this was in the Calgary Herald and mentioned a few Calgary-specific numbers. But the bulk of the article was about a mythical "Canadian" home price.)

George
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In God we trust, all others bring data (William Edwards Deming)
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby patriot1 » 19 Dec 2011 22:06

ghariton wrote: Our various local markets do not usually move in tandem

Not usually, but they have moved very much in tandem over the last decade. And with markets outside Canada to an unprecedented degree.

Apply Occam's razor to that.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby ghariton » 20 Dec 2011 20:57

patriot1 wrote:
ghariton wrote: Our various local markets do not usually move in tandem

Not usually, but they have moved very much in tandem over the last decade. And with markets outside Canada to an unprecedented degree.

Apply Occam's razor to that.

Want to bet that Vancouver is more at risk than Ottawa

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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby Insomniac » 21 Dec 2011 20:20

Real estate in Nanaimo is down this year and Victoria is up. 100 KM makes a difference.

Property assessments for BC will be published in January.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby patriot1 » 22 Dec 2011 08:11

Insomniac wrote:Real estate in Nanaimo is down this year and Victoria is up.

Teranet shows Victoria up 2.05% YTD down .22% YoY (both as of Oct 2011) and essentially flat since 2008::

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

What numbers do you have and where are they from?
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby Insomniac » 22 Dec 2011 17:56

Try this for a better picture of BC prices:
https://www.landcor.com/market/housing_price_index.aspx
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby patriot1 » 22 Dec 2011 18:40

There is no description of their methodology. Looking at the graph, it looks like they are using average selling prices, which is a very poor way of indexing the market.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby FinEcon » 22 Dec 2011 20:27

You can get paid generously for perceived risk, but you don’t necessarily get paid for taking real risk

-- Wilbur Ross
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Postby CROCKD » 29 Dec 2011 16:15

Asian investors continue to exert pressure on real estate in western economies.

Asian money pours into city apartments
" A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it is written on " Samuel Goldwyn
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