Norbert Schlenker wrote: [You're presuming that you can identify and profit from a trend. I'm skeptical.
Isn't that what you are doing albeit longer term. Are you not assuming that the market will trend upwards over the long term.
Sure, but here's the thing. I could have paid $25k for it in July and now I can have it for $15k. Think carefully now. Given a choice of buying in July or November, which would make me better off in ten years? You seem to believe that the "trend" will let you buy it for $10k in February. I think it's just as likely it will be $20k then.
I think I'm better off in 10 years to have paid the lesser amount. All things being equal in 10 years the price of the car will be the same regardless of what price I paid this year. So seeing that the trend is down I wait until the 08s come on the scene and pay less.
I tell them it's not going to zero and, if it's not going to zero, buying it for half off means they're getting a bargain.
So every thing is 1/2 off now. And it will stay above zero. What makes you think that it will be worth more in 10 years.
If it all goes to zero, even you will be in trouble. You just don't realize it yet.
Ah but I do . I also have beans and bullets.
So is that the extent of your financial plan? Buy and hold a basket of diversified assets.
To me a plan consists of where I want to go. How am I going to get there? How do I know I’m getting there and what am I going to do if the plan doesn’t work.
Every one says don’t panic, well it’s a lot easier not to panic if you have run the disaster scenario and know what you are going to do when things don’t go the way you planned.
The sooner you realize the plan isn't going your way the better. Step to the sidelines and come up with a different plan. It's way easier to see whats going on when your not rationalizing a position thats going against you. It's a time out to regroup. If the market goes up without you , so be it. You can always get back in if it's part of your new plan.
Is there a point in your plan where you throw in the towel? Or do you reach a point where it’s too late.