Black Monday?

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WynnQuon
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Black Monday?

Post by WynnQuon »

Every once in a while, I get this bad feeling. Maybe I'm wrong about this. But still, I thought I'd write it out of my system at least.

The release of the employment figures today (500K jobs lost in Nov in the US) shows this is not a typical recession but the markets have rallied in recent days.

There's a disconnect between the market and today's news.

As well, in the first leg of a bear market, it's common for a climactic sell off to happen.

Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?

So why do I have a baaaad feeling? Perhaps it's because the unemployment statistic is more in keeping with a Dow of 7000 rather than a Dow of 8200.

I bought some put options today.
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Post by desk4811 »

The banks seem to be doing well, at least making some money, although Royal Bank's earnings were down for the 4th quarter in a row, which hasn't happened in 9 years. Things are looking bad all around. At least everyone can be fairly sure that OJ had a worse day.
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Post by Studebaker Hawk »

desk4811 wrote:The banks seem to be doing well, at least making some money, although Royal Bank's earnings were down for the 4th quarter in a row, which hasn't happened in 9 years. Things are looking bad all around. At least everyone can be fairly sure that OJ had a worse day.
Looks good to me as a consumer.

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Post by Mike Schimek »

Now I know why Five Alive is on special at 99c a can instead of the traditional 1.69.
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Re: Black Monday?

Post by milo »

WynnQuon wrote: Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?
Why on the 15th, why not the 8th this coming Monday?
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Re: Black Monday?

Post by WynnQuon »

milo wrote:
WynnQuon wrote: Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?
Why on the 15th, why not the 8th this coming Monday?
Because I can't read my calendar right and have no clue what date today is!
Too funny. I meant the 8th :D
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Post by worthy »

Heck, he was distracted!

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The rest of us are just destroyed. :(
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Post by Nemo2 »

worthy wrote:Heck, he was distracted!

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The rest of us are just destroyed. :(
All in all, I'd rather be distracted.
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Post by northbeach »

We might not be laughing once Monday comes.

:shock:
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Post by BRIAN5000 »

Where's Gummy he know's what date the crash will happen.
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Post by cycle »

It's funny but I've been feeling the opposite way: a vague good feeling, like last week may have been a turning point. Maybe it was US equities rising while oil continued to fall, which hadn't yet happened simultaneously during this downturn. I'm already in the market (always have been), and very curious to see if this situation will continue next week.
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Post by Peculiar_Investor »

BRIAN5000 wrote:Where's Gummy he know's what date the crash will happen.
So am I to assume that "what date the crash" is singular and we can only expect one crash :wink:
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Post by broke »

Peculiar_Investor wrote:So am I to assume that "what date the crash" is singular and we can only expect one crash :wink:
Yeh. It's a maximum one crash per day warranty. :shock:
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Post by gummy »

'course, there's that good ol' Santa Claus Rally and/or the January Effect ... mebbe

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Post by AltaRed »

Those predictions may not be far off as the recession deepens. I don't think the markets have yet reached their lows, particularly if the December unemployment reports show more of the same. These lows may happen before inauguration day though as I am guessing that will be some spectacle designed to buoy the spirits of USians.

I am sooooo tempted to put in some stink bids on a few stocks, but maybe there will be a better opportunity in mid-January.
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Post by blonde »

It shud not be a surprise to witness DJIA reach the 6500 mark with followers adjusting accordingly.

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Post by AltaRed »

blonde wrote:When does Prez-Elect become Prez?
Jan 20, 2009
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Post by worthy »

Indeed, the world looks forward to the Chosen One, as he hits the ground with quick plans for more trillions in stimulus--the US$8.17 trillion so far committed obviously being inadequate. Then there are the 20,000 new Centurions he plans sending to Afghanistan, Iran's ambitions to be smashed and the Imperial Homeland to be remade with jobs for all, homes for all and, soon, energy-efficient cars for all. Change is coming--despite all the old faces manning His Administration.

That will perk the markets up.
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Post by AltaRed »

worthy wrote:That will perk the markets up.
It will temporarily because Obama will raise hope and spirit amongst people 'wishing' on hope. How long the euphoria lasts before people figure out they will still have to do it 'the hard way' remains unknown. So... does one look for market lows in January, or somewhere mid-2009 when despair seeps back in?
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Post by northbeach »

My portfolio is now 65% Cash and Fixed and 35% equities.

Hopefully optimism via Obama will change that to a 60/40 split. At that time I may rebalance to 65/35, where this ratio would be part of my updated financial plan.

Right now however I feel like one of those ducks at the midway waiting to be picked off for a cheap prize. So I may get to 70/30 before heading back.
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Post by desk4811 »

When oil finds a bottom it might indicate that the worst is over. So far it's been heading lower. Perhaps it will go so low that the Tar Sands will have to stop, there's no reason to doubt it so far. If people can't afford a car, then it keeps the price low. There's a cold snap now, in the East, so Monday's oil price should be interesting.
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Post by beluga »

FTSE 100 +4.5%, HANG SENG +8.6%, DAX +6.0% all up right now before North American open.
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Post by uhoh »

phew !
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Re: Black Monday?

Post by deaddog »

WynnQuon wrote:
Because I can't read my calendar right and have no clue what date today is!
Too funny. I meant the 8th :D
Maybe the 15th was a better call :D :D
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Re: Black Monday?

Post by marty123 »

deaddog wrote:
WynnQuon wrote:
Because I can't read my calendar right and have no clue what date today is!
Too funny. I meant the 8th :D
Maybe the 15th was a better call :D :D
Or the 22nd? Some day, there will be a Black Monday. I just know it :wink:
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