Black Monday?
Black Monday?
Every once in a while, I get this bad feeling. Maybe I'm wrong about this. But still, I thought I'd write it out of my system at least.
The release of the employment figures today (500K jobs lost in Nov in the US) shows this is not a typical recession but the markets have rallied in recent days.
There's a disconnect between the market and today's news.
As well, in the first leg of a bear market, it's common for a climactic sell off to happen.
Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?
So why do I have a baaaad feeling? Perhaps it's because the unemployment statistic is more in keeping with a Dow of 7000 rather than a Dow of 8200.
I bought some put options today.
The release of the employment figures today (500K jobs lost in Nov in the US) shows this is not a typical recession but the markets have rallied in recent days.
There's a disconnect between the market and today's news.
As well, in the first leg of a bear market, it's common for a climactic sell off to happen.
Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?
So why do I have a baaaad feeling? Perhaps it's because the unemployment statistic is more in keeping with a Dow of 7000 rather than a Dow of 8200.
I bought some put options today.
- Studebaker Hawk
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Looks good to me as a consumer.desk4811 wrote:The banks seem to be doing well, at least making some money, although Royal Bank's earnings were down for the 4th quarter in a row, which hasn't happened in 9 years. Things are looking bad all around. At least everyone can be fairly sure that OJ had a worse day.
Communication with old people is difficult as they feel superior to you and find difficulty in remembering anything.
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Re: Black Monday?
Why on the 15th, why not the 8th this coming Monday?WynnQuon wrote: Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?
Re: Black Monday?
Because I can't read my calendar right and have no clue what date today is!milo wrote:Why on the 15th, why not the 8th this coming Monday?WynnQuon wrote: Pretty flimsy rationale for a Black Monday crash on the 15th right?
Too funny. I meant the 8th
- northbeach
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It's funny but I've been feeling the opposite way: a vague good feeling, like last week may have been a turning point. Maybe it was US equities rising while oil continued to fall, which hadn't yet happened simultaneously during this downturn. I'm already in the market (always have been), and very curious to see if this situation will continue next week.
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So am I to assume that "what date the crash" is singular and we can only expect one crashBRIAN5000 wrote:Where's Gummy he know's what date the crash will happen.
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Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Those predictions may not be far off as the recession deepens. I don't think the markets have yet reached their lows, particularly if the December unemployment reports show more of the same. These lows may happen before inauguration day though as I am guessing that will be some spectacle designed to buoy the spirits of USians.
I am sooooo tempted to put in some stink bids on a few stocks, but maybe there will be a better opportunity in mid-January.
I am sooooo tempted to put in some stink bids on a few stocks, but maybe there will be a better opportunity in mid-January.
It shud not be a surprise to witness DJIA reach the 6500 mark with followers adjusting accordingly.
When does Prez-Elect become Prez?
When does Prez-Elect become Prez?
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple...Dr Seuss
Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind...Dr Seuss
Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind...Dr Seuss
Indeed, the world looks forward to the Chosen One, as he hits the ground with quick plans for more trillions in stimulus--the US$8.17 trillion so far committed obviously being inadequate. Then there are the 20,000 new Centurions he plans sending to Afghanistan, Iran's ambitions to be smashed and the Imperial Homeland to be remade with jobs for all, homes for all and, soon, energy-efficient cars for all. Change is coming--despite all the old faces manning His Administration.
That will perk the markets up.
That will perk the markets up.
"Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under." H.L.Mencken
It will temporarily because Obama will raise hope and spirit amongst people 'wishing' on hope. How long the euphoria lasts before people figure out they will still have to do it 'the hard way' remains unknown. So... does one look for market lows in January, or somewhere mid-2009 when despair seeps back in?worthy wrote:That will perk the markets up.
- northbeach
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My portfolio is now 65% Cash and Fixed and 35% equities.
Hopefully optimism via Obama will change that to a 60/40 split. At that time I may rebalance to 65/35, where this ratio would be part of my updated financial plan.
Right now however I feel like one of those ducks at the midway waiting to be picked off for a cheap prize. So I may get to 70/30 before heading back.
Hopefully optimism via Obama will change that to a 60/40 split. At that time I may rebalance to 65/35, where this ratio would be part of my updated financial plan.
Right now however I feel like one of those ducks at the midway waiting to be picked off for a cheap prize. So I may get to 70/30 before heading back.
When oil finds a bottom it might indicate that the worst is over. So far it's been heading lower. Perhaps it will go so low that the Tar Sands will have to stop, there's no reason to doubt it so far. If people can't afford a car, then it keeps the price low. There's a cold snap now, in the East, so Monday's oil price should be interesting.
Re: Black Monday?
Maybe the 15th was a better callWynnQuon wrote:
Because I can't read my calendar right and have no clue what date today is!
Too funny. I meant the 8th
Re: Black Monday?
Or the 22nd? Some day, there will be a Black Monday. I just know itdeaddog wrote:Maybe the 15th was a better callWynnQuon wrote:
Because I can't read my calendar right and have no clue what date today is!
Too funny. I meant the 8th