UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?
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bhramar
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UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index

Post by bhramar »

Sep, 2017 Report -
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-ma ... -2017.html

Few entries specific to Canada -
Over the long run Vancouver and Toronto’s house prices have moved in rough lockstep. Vancouver had the upper hand until 2008, but Toronto has been catching up rapidly in recent years. Neither city was dragged down by either the financial crisis or weakening commodity prices: the depreciation of the Canadian dollar effectively buffered them against economic headwinds. An overly loose monetary policy for too long, in addition to buoyant foreign demand, unmoored their housing markets from economic fundamentals, and both markets are now in bubble risk territory
Canada - UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Canada - UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Toronto -
House prices here are making up ground lost to Vancouver. Price growth accelerated last year and reached an excessive 20% year on year in the last quarter. Real prices have doubled in 13 years, while real rents have increased by only 5% and real income by less than 10%. A strengthening Canadian dollar and further interest rate hikes would end the party.
Vancouver -
Price growth peaked in the middle of last year when real prices soared 25% year on year. In 2Q17 the growth slowed to 7%, falling below the country average. Income and rental growth were solid at 3% and 5% year on year respectively. So valuations were slightly dampened in recent quarters, but the market remains in the bubble-risk zone, harboring substantial downside and elevated correction risk.
bhramar
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Re: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index

Post by bhramar »

UBS has now released its 2018 Global Real Estate Bubble Index Report -
Vancouver, whose house prices accelerated to a double-digit rate relative to last year, has a ballooning index score. Higher stamp duties for foreign investors proved futile in braking its boom. By contrast, Toronto’s price dynamics have slowed considerably and its index score declined somewhat from last year’s. In both cities, valuations have trended upward since the late 1990s. Neither the financial crisis nor weakening
commodity prices has dragged them down. But rising rates, stricter market regulations or an economic downturn could turn the lights out on the party given the high valuations and strained affordability
Source:
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-ma ... -2018.html
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