Housing Bust 2017

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?
Thegipper
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Thegipper » 15 May 2017 20:58

I think Calgary is a great market. My daughter bought a really nice 1350 square foot condo for 350k. It's in downtown Calgary.

twa2w
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by twa2w » 16 May 2017 17:04

yes the Calgary market is increasing in some areas without a lot of attention. It never really dipped significantly other than in a few areas and a few types of housing but there is a huge number of new condos nearing completion over the next while, mostly in the central part of the city.

Here are a few stats from two neighbourhoods close to me.

Hawkwood average sale Q1 2016 average sale Q1 2017

Bungalow 462,800 524,875 +13.4%

2 story split 518,333 590,500 + 13.9

Ranchlands

Bungalow 400,000 427,100 +9.3

2 story split 461,500 351,333 -23.9 (only one sale in q1 2017)

They also have stats for apartments and Semi's but numbers are too limited to mean anything except for Ranchlands where the prices are down 6.6%

So a bit of a mixed bag. Hawkwood and Ranchlands are pretty average with similar mix and not too much variation in housing stock from high end to low end.

CalgaryGuy
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by CalgaryGuy » 27 May 2017 23:24

We just bought in Calgary. We were looking in Brentwood, Charleswood, and Varsity. These are nice older areas (more central) with good schools near the University. Despite all the talk about a weak housing market in Calgary, every home we were really interested in had bidding wars and was gone on the first night. The home we bought had a bidding war on the first night.

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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by randomwalker » 28 May 2017 06:50

CalgaryGuy wrote:
27 May 2017 23:24
We just bought in Calgary. We were looking in Brentwood, Charleswood, and Varsity. These are nice older areas (more central) with good schools near the University. Despite all the talk about a weak housing market in Calgary, every home we were really interested in had bidding wars and was gone on the first night. The home we bought had a bidding war on the first night.
If there are bidding wars taking place then "weak market" talk is still just that, talk. Sounds like it's still a sellers market, at least where you were looking to buy.

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Flaccidsteele
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Flaccidsteele » 28 May 2017 21:55

randomwalker wrote:
28 May 2017 06:50
If there are bidding wars taking place then "weak market" talk is still just that, talk. Sounds like it's still a sellers market, at least where you were looking to buy.
I agree. We haven't seen a housing correction since the 90s.
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gobsmack
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by gobsmack » 29 May 2017 05:36

randomwalker wrote:
28 May 2017 06:50
CalgaryGuy wrote:
27 May 2017 23:24
We just bought in Calgary. We were looking in Brentwood, Charleswood, and Varsity. These are nice older areas (more central) with good schools near the University. Despite all the talk about a weak housing market in Calgary, every home we were really interested in had bidding wars and was gone on the first night. The home we bought had a bidding war on the first night.
If there are bidding wars taking place then "weak market" talk is still just that, talk. Sounds like it's still a sellers market, at least where you were looking to buy.
I have many friends in Calgary and they all seem to be pretty nervous about their jobs. Could it possibly be that some of the foreigners who were spooked by the tax in Vancouver are now buying in Calgary?

randomwalker
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by randomwalker » 29 May 2017 06:18

gobsmack wrote:
29 May 2017 05:36
randomwalker wrote:
28 May 2017 06:50
CalgaryGuy wrote:
27 May 2017 23:24
We just bought in Calgary. We were looking in Brentwood, Charleswood, and Varsity. These are nice older areas (more central) with good schools near the University. Despite all the talk about a weak housing market in Calgary, every home we were really interested in had bidding wars and was gone on the first night. The home we bought had a bidding war on the first night.
If there are bidding wars taking place then "weak market" talk is still just that, talk. Sounds like it's still a sellers market, at least where you were looking to buy.
I have many friends in Calgary and they all seem to be pretty nervous about their jobs. Could it possibly be that some of the foreigners who were spooked by the tax in Vancouver are now buying in Calgary?
Possibly, apparently, seems to be a thing...

https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#q=cal ... rs&tbm=nws

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Mordko
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Mordko » 02 Jun 2017 18:50

Buyers are pulling out from deals and forfeiting deposits in Toronto. The "bust" thing may no longer be a joke.

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optionable68
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by optionable68 » 03 Jun 2017 10:46

Mordko wrote:
02 Jun 2017 18:50
Buyers are pulling out from deals and forfeiting deposits in Toronto. The "bust" thing may no longer be a joke.
Sources please
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CROCKD
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by CROCKD » 03 Jun 2017 17:07

" A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it is written on " Samuel Goldwyn
"The light at the end of the tunnel may be a freight train coming your way" Metallica - No Leaf Clover

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Mordko
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Mordko » 03 Jun 2017 20:51

optionable68 wrote:
03 Jun 2017 10:46
Mordko wrote:
02 Jun 2017 18:50
Buyers are pulling out from deals and forfeiting deposits in Toronto. The "bust" thing may no longer be a joke.
Sources please
Toronto realtors have a "secret" Facebook group. You have to be invited and people there tend to be frank. My wife is a realtor. A couple of months ago everyone was going "WTF, people are bidding way, way, way over, it's impossible to buy". Now realtors are fighting for the deals to stay alive because buyers are pulling out.

ig17
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by ig17 » 03 Jun 2017 21:49

optionable68 wrote:
03 Jun 2017 10:46
Sources please
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/05/29 ... 66210.html
Observers say the market has been shaken by the near-collapse of subprime mortgage lender Home Capital, and impacted by new federal mortgage rules, introduced last fall, that require a “stress test” for borrowers of insured mortgages.

They also suggest buyers are on hold to see what effect the province’s new housing rules will have. Those rules, announced in April, include expanded rent controls and a 15-per-cent foreign homebuyers’ tax.

Buyers walking away from their deposits

The mood in the market appears to have turned very sharply, very quickly, and buyer’s remorse is setting in.

“We are seeing people who paid those crazy prices over the last few months walking away from their deposits,” Royal LePage realtor Carissa Turnbull told Bloomberg. “They don’t want to close anymore.”

New listings of homes have spiked as some homeowners in the area hurry to cash in on high house prices. Listings were up 47 per cent in the first half of May, compared to the same period a year earlier, even as sales fell.

randomwalker
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by randomwalker » 05 Jun 2017 19:13

Mordko wrote:
03 Jun 2017 20:51
optionable68 wrote:
03 Jun 2017 10:46
Mordko wrote:
02 Jun 2017 18:50
Buyers are pulling out from deals and forfeiting deposits in Toronto. The "bust" thing may no longer be a joke.
Sources please
Toronto realtors have a "secret" Facebook group. You have to be invited and people there tend to be frank. My wife is a realtor. A couple of months ago everyone was going "WTF, people are bidding way, way, way over, it's impossible to buy". Now realtors are fighting for the deals to stay alive because buyers are pulling out.
Ah yes a "secret Facebook page" I would expect nothing less from a group that shuns transparency and preys on ignorance. Can any of you imagine the buying and selling of stocks and bonds with such opaqueness? Between bankers, realtors, and financial advisers no wonder the average person has next to no net worth. A pox on all their houses. (pun intended)

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Mordko
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Mordko » 05 Jun 2017 19:27

Heh. Well, I am a physicst/engineer and we also have professional groups on the web which are "by invitation only".

Don't see anything wrong with professionals exchanging information within their narrow circles.

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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Mordko » 05 Jun 2017 19:29

Nor is it accurate that an average person has "next to nothing" net worth. In fact, Canadians have no excuse to be poor, unless they are sick or mentally incapacitated.

http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com/re ... -net-worth

randomwalker
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by randomwalker » 05 Jun 2017 20:11

Mordko wrote:
05 Jun 2017 19:27
Heh. Well, I am a physicst/engineer and we also have professional groups on the web which are "by invitation only".

Don't see anything wrong with professionals exchanging information within their narrow circles.
I would suggest to you that the word "professional" has been watered down over the years. Surely one cannot use the word professional when speaking of someone who sells houses for a living in the same way they would when speaking of doctors, lawyers, architects, engineers and the like. I'm afraid My definition of professional is rigid and limited.

randomwalker
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by randomwalker » 05 Jun 2017 20:19

Mordko wrote:
05 Jun 2017 19:29
Nor is it accurate that an average person has "next to nothing" net worth. In fact, Canadians have no excuse to be poor, unless they are sick or mentally incapacitated.

http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com/re ... -net-worth
Yes my mistake. I guess was using the word average in a colloquial a way as some people use the word professional. I should be more exacting and say the median Canadian or half the population

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Mordko
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Mordko » 06 Jun 2017 09:49

randomwalker wrote:
05 Jun 2017 20:11
Mordko wrote:
05 Jun 2017 19:27
Heh. Well, I am a physicst/engineer and we also have professional groups on the web which are "by invitation only".

Don't see anything wrong with professionals exchanging information within their narrow circles.
I would suggest to you that the word "professional" has been watered down over the years. Surely one cannot use the word professional when speaking of someone who sells houses for a living in the same way they would when speaking of doctors, lawyers, architects, engineers and the like. I'm afraid My definition of professional is rigid and limited.
Sorry I wasn't clear. Let me rephrase. Members of any profession - be it physicists, farmers, astronauts or realtors - should be able to communicate within their professional associations.

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kcowan
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by kcowan » 06 Jun 2017 10:21

randomwalker wrote:
05 Jun 2017 19:13
Ah yes a "secret Facebook page" I would expect nothing less from a group that shuns transparency and preys on ignorance. Can any of you imagine the buying and selling of stocks and bonds with such opaqueness? Between bankers, realtors, and financial advisers no wonder the average person has next to no net worth. A pox on all their houses. (pun intended)
With all due respect to Mordko, I think most RE people are unprofessional sales people who share selling strategies.

I know there are exceptions and I know some realtors. You might be classed as a Beback!
For the fun of it...Keith

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Mordko
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Mordko » 06 Jun 2017 10:51

I think there are good and bad realtors - like in any profession. There is a fundamental problem that the way the system is set up their interests are not aligned with the interests of their clients. It's a mathematical/incentive issue and the way they are renumerated. Different people handle it differently. And yes, successful realtors tend to focus on sales. Not necessarily a good thing but true for many professions.

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Flaccidsteele
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Flaccidsteele » 08 Jun 2017 10:34

Anecdotally, my realtor friends are still quite busy. At least some of their offers are actually being presented as opposed to being lost in an avalanche of competing bids.
Retired @ 40 after reading Munger/Buffett. I avoided a fragile retirement by avoiding conventional volatility management (diversification, re-balancing and asset-allocation). "Put 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund...the long-term results will be superior" - Warren Buffett

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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by AltaRed » 08 Jun 2017 13:45

Could the cascading effect of the Home Capital debacle prick the bubble? A link I picked up elsewhere.....

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/alterna ... -1.4150023

Sub-prime mortgage rates are up now that HCG is not approving new applications (for now) and that may:

1) dent the volume of new purchases by sub-prime buyers

2) force sub-prime borrowers to sell their property at the end of term of their current sub-prime mortgage IF they cannot then afford the higher renewal rates if they have not moved out of sub-prime credit status.
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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by SkaSka » 04 Aug 2017 19:07

I'm surprised that as real estate sales start to slow down in Toronto and, to a smaller extent, Vancouver, that there is little discussion in this thread?

Is the bust finally unfolding?

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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by fireseeker » 04 Aug 2017 21:46

Vancouver has not only stabilized but has resumed rising after a pause. So long as interest rates remain accommodative and land-use policies remain restrictive, my guess is that Toronto is following the same pattern and could once again turn higher. Right now could prove to be an excellent time to buy.
Or not. Predictions are a mug's game. If you need a house, you should buy one. If you don't need one, you shouldn't.

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Re: Housing Bust 2017

Post by Flaccidsteele » 04 Aug 2017 23:06

fireseeker wrote:
04 Aug 2017 21:46
Vancouver has not only stabilized but has resumed rising after a pause. So long as interest rates remain accommodative and land-use policies remain restrictive, my guess is that Toronto is following the same pattern and could once again turn higher. Right now could prove to be an excellent time to buy.
Or not. Predictions are a mug's game. If you need a house, you should buy one. If you don't need one, you shouldn't.
^ I agree.
Retired @ 40 after reading Munger/Buffett. I avoided a fragile retirement by avoiding conventional volatility management (diversification, re-balancing and asset-allocation). "Put 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund...the long-term results will be superior" - Warren Buffett

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