Housing Bust 2012

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?
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HardWorker
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Housing Bust 2012

Post by HardWorker »

C'mon, we all knew this thread was coming :twisted:

Will this be the year?
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patriot1
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by patriot1 »

The year was 2006.

Did you miss it?
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optionable68
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by optionable68 »

The year was 1990
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by Rickson9 »

optionable68 wrote:The year was 1990
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by HardWorker »

patriot1 wrote:The year was 2006.

Did you miss it?
Hey that was a great year. I became a homeowner and landlord at once. No really, it was great :thumbsup:

Since no one can really call booms and busts, I might as well toss in my thoughts. 2011 is almost over, 2012 will still be low interest rates, so maybe I should've started a 2013 thread?
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NormR
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by NormR »

HardWorker wrote:2012 will still be low interest rates
because real estate only goes up in low interest rate environments ...

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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by HardWorker »

I never said go up ;)

I meant there shouldn't be any shocks to the system, but as I said, no one can call them.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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Toronto goes the way of Vancouver?

Looking to buy a condo? Get to the back of the line
By Susan Pigg The Toronto Star, Fri Oct 28 2011

“On the door was taped an ad from a Chinese newspaper with a picture of what the project would look like. Deals were being done,” says Rone. “It looked like the sales centre was open for business, but only to people of a certain ethnicity.” Toronto’s condo market is on fire. And much of the frenzy is being fuelled by investors, many of them Asians, who are being given preferential treatment — early access to the best and cheapest units. “It may look like discrimination, but these people have actually earned the right to be first in line. Any business will go to their best customers first,” says realtor turned condo developer Brad Lamb.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/107807 ... f-the-line
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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How to prop up or revive a market with foreign buyers

October 20, 2011|By Jim Puzzanghera and Lauren Beale, Los Angeles Times

"Bill would encourage foreigners to buy U.S. homes. The bipartisan Senate bill would allow foreigners who spend at least $500,000 on a residential property to obtain visas allowing them to live in the United States. The plan could be a boon to California, which has become a popular real estate market for foreigners, particularly those from China. Nationwide, residential sales to foreigners and recent immigrants totaled $82 billion in the 12-month period ended March 31, up from $66 billion the previous year, according to the National Assn. of Realtors."

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/20 ... s-20111021
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by Beezy »

So when did the first housing bust thread start? Who thinks 2012 is the year?
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by HardWorker »

Beezy wrote:So when did the first housing bust thread start? Who thinks 2012 is the year?

I think 2006 was the first year. Which is the year I bought my place :P
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by peter »

My Calgary assessment for 2012 is down 3.5%. Now 10% below 2007 assessment. Median single family house is $400k, down 2.5% from last year.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by Norbert Schlenker »

Gulf Islands assessments are down about 2% year over year. Vancouver Island generally is drifting off. The only market still roaring appears to be close in Metro Vancouver.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by kcowan »

Norbert Schlenker wrote:Gulf Islands assessments are down about 2% year over year. Vancouver Island generally is drifting off. The only market still roaring appears to be close in Metro Vancouver.
Wasn't their bust in 2010? I think that was when the Okanagan went bust as well.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by Insomniac »

Norbert Schlenker wrote:Gulf Islands assessments are down about 2% year over year. Vancouver Island generally is drifting off. The only market still roaring appears to be close in Metro Vancouver.
I think Stewart was up 21% this year; beats Vancouver! :lol:
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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RBC, BMO warn on housing
The heads of Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T52.680.440.84%) and Bank of Montreal (BMO-T58.290.350.60%) told an investor conference in Toronto Tuesday morning that a softer housing market is a concern across the country, with particular focus on the condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver, where capacity is significantly overbuilt.
Mr. Downe said. “And I think that particularly with respect to two markets, Toronto and Vancouver, investor-owned condo properties have got to be a cause for concern, just because of supply and demand.”
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by kcowan »

It is amazing to me how the banks can state the obvious and get it reported as sage advice. God help the average man/woman!
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by CROCKD »

From a link in today's G&M Investor

Canadian housing bubble
" A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it is written on " Samuel Goldwyn
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by kcowan »

Here are the latest house price trends for the west:
HousePrices2011.png
Winnipeg and Vancouver look like the exceptions.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by optionable68 »

Given today's extension of a low interest rate environment "at least until late 2014", I'm not so sure we will see a "bust" in 2012.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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Housing bubble is really a balloon: BMO’s Sherry Cooper
by By Robert Hiltz Postmedia News Jan 30, 2012

OTTAWA — "It’s not a bubble, it’s a balloon. Unlike the catastrophic decline the U.S. housing market experienced in 2008, Canada’s housing market is expected to deflate slowly rather than pop, according to BMO Capital Markets chief economist Sherry Cooper."

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/ ... ry-cooper/

Dr Sherry Cooper video here
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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Toronto real estate so hot worn city-owned houses rake in $602,000 more than the asking prices
by By Susan Pigg Business Reporter, THr Toronto Star

"One battered, boarded-up brick semi went for $265,000 over the $495,000 asking price all on its own."

http://www.thestar.com/business/article ... ing-prices
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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Look out below
After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must confront a bubble of its own
When the United States saw a vast housing bubble inflate and burst during the 2000s, many Canadians felt smug about the purported prudence of their financial and property markets. During the crash, Canadian house prices fell by just 8%, compared with more than 30% in America. They hit new record highs by 2010. “Canada was not a part of the problem,” Stephen Harper, the prime minister, boasted in 2010.

Today the consensus is growing on Bay Street, Toronto’s answer to Wall Street, that Mr Harper may have to eat his words. In response to America’s slow economic recovery and uncertainty in Europe, the Bank of Canada has kept interest rates at record lows. Five-year fixed-rate mortgages now charge interest of just 2.99%. In response, Canadians have sought ever-bigger loans for ever-costlier homes. The country’s house prices have doubled since 2002.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by kcowan »

A couple of articles on Seeking Alpha about Canadian housing and the potential impact on the banks:
The case for a housing bubble
The impact on our banks
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by DavidR »

Nice graphic, but is it fair to compare 'personal disposable income' when Canadian healthcare is covered by income taxes?

The Economist story quotes a Sherry Cooper/BMO report “While bubbles always burst, a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a ‘pin’.” But ignores BMO's analysis about disposal incomes (and other factors).
From the Globe's coverage of the BMO report http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le2319474/
Canadian households are not as vulnerable as their American counterparts, the [BMO] economists say.

Canadian home ownership equity is 67 per cent in Canada, compared with 39 per cent in the U.S., and even debt-to-income ratios are far better in Canada when the cost of health care that U.S. households must pay is factored in.
my bold
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