Housing Bust 2012

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?
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blonde
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by blonde »

For the past several years the 'doomsters' have been huffin and puffin claiming that the sky is falling...KCUF da doomsters...in the meantime the Mega-Opportunities have been bringing in the Mega-Money.

Why is there such a thrust to 'inform' the sheep...when 'ems drink the Kool-Aid there is no need to provide the do's and dont's...'ems are too stupid to figure-IT-out. Taking 'ems for the slaughter house does provide the necessary upticks...

as an aside...ya'lls wouldn't believe HOW-Good the Opportunities have been these past several years in real estate. MONEY GALORE. The Opportunities are so darn good that it is impossible to slow-down as a Senior. Money is an excellent MOTIVATOR...the only MOTIVATOR in this day and age...

It is ALL about MONEY, Folks!!!
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by CROCKD »

The economics of housing
Which Canadian property markets are most at risk?


Vancouver
The latest data suggests that the resale market in Vancouver may be running out of steam. Active listings are near all-time highs for this month, sales are at decade lows, and prices are now falling on a year-over-year basis:

The bottom line is that there is no other city in Canada where the fundamentals are this ugly. The risk of significant price declines in this market is enormous.
Toronto
With this much inventory in the pipelines, strong demand for new units is essential to absorb this inventory without adversely affecting prices. However, the majority of new condo units are currently being purchased by investors and not end users. This is quite concerning considering that most new condo units in the GTA do not generate enough rents to cover ownership costs for investors, meaning they are cash-flow negative.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by sunkenradish »

patriot1 wrote:Or you could rent in the same area for about $2K/month:

http://ottawa.craigslist.ca/search/apa? ... bedrooms=3
Adding data to the rent/own cost disparity:

We rent a luxurious 2-bedroom apartment in Ottawa's ByWard Market for $920 a month with an annual 1.0% increase.
There are many other places available in that range in the heart of the city. We can walk to work or groceries.

We love the suburbs. We just can't justify paying extra to be there.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by dusty2 »

I was thinking that one of the main reasons for English-Canadian cities rising housing prices is that there are very few locations, in the world, that has everything right. Top of the list is that it's English speaking, free and democratic. There are only 4 other countries like it and the U.S. managed to screw-up their housing. So Canada, England and Australia are left. Everywhere else is sort of second-rate. These days there are a lot of people in other countries looking to protect their money and their lives. $500,000 still buys a nice 'insurance policy' in the form of real estate, even in Toronto. Since these countries are the best, they command top dollar, which people seem willing to pay.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by CROCKD »

dusty2 wrote:Top of the list is that it's English speaking, free and democratic.
Everywhere else is sort of second-rate.
I was born in one of those English speaking countries. However I find it strange that one should think that if you speak Swedish, Dutch, German etc. your place of residence is automatically second rate.
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adrian2
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by adrian2 »

dusty2 wrote:Top of the list is that it's English speaking, free and democratic. There are only 4 other countries like it and the U.S. managed to screw-up their housing.
And of course what has happened in the U.S. can't ever happen here because we're so much different (and better) than them. It's all the fault of Bush / Obama / evil Wall Street bankers.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by kcowan »

adrian2 wrote:It's all the fault of Bush / Obama / evil Wall Street bankers.
Sure. Well that is as good as any and better than many...

(Or should we give Flaherty credit? :rofl: )
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by HardWorker »

Apparently we can withstand a 40% hair cut in house prices, as long as nothing else goes wrong.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/mobileweb/ ... 42897.html
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by dusty2 »

I'm not saying that a housing collapse can't happen in Canada. When we elect someone as incompetent as Bush, let our economy be run by Wall St. bankers and do the same disastrous things that they did to their housing, then it probably will. I don't think it's happening now though, which is why I said it. We seem to be doing better than the U.S., since we haven't had a crash. Speaking English is better for overseas investors because a lot of them speak English, unlike German, Dutch or Swedish etc.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by randomwalker »

dusty2 wrote:"... When we elect someone as incompetent as Bush, let our economy be run by Wall St. bankers and do the same disastrous things that they did to their housing....
You don't need any of the above to take place. There is a long term relationship between income and house prices. Clearly that relationship is currently broken and in time will be fixed by a "reversion to the mean" so to speak. I think long term reversion to the mean is as close as we can get to a "law of gravity" when we talk about markets and finance. One of the following will happen, either house prices will come down, incomes will rise, or a combination of the two will take place. Myself I'd bet on the former rather than either of the latter.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by CROCKD »

Signs of sanity in Toronto’s condo craze
But this healthy cooling of the market may not be enough protection against an investor exodus should interest rates rise by about 150 basis points, Mr. Tal said. At that point, many investors would not be able to meet their costs through rental income from their tenants.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by $seeker »

I wondered if I could get some opinions on negotiations for a Home.

Someone has approached us wondering if we would be interested in selling our home to them.
If you were in this position would you set the price or would you have the interested purchaser look and make an offer as the starting price. He has asked about a price in mind but we have not responded yet just passed info on interior description etc.
He has looked at a similar home in the area but it was purchased before he got his offer in. That house was newer but there are + and - regarding features between the two homes so should be close in value. The main issue with our home is it will need a new roof within a few years so he will have that over us.

If we have a number in mind would we move it up a certain % to have room for negotiations and if so how much room above our bottom line?

Thanks for any feed back .
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by Nemo2 »

$seeker wrote: Someone has approached us wondering if we would be interested in selling our home to them.
Perhaps the first question I'd ask myself is "Do I want to sell my home, or just engage in a speculative exercise?"
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by AltaRed »

That is what my reaction to the post is as well. Why even entertain the idea if there had been no plans or thoughts about selling in the first place? I'd pass on unsolicited interests and go on with my everyday life. The costs of selling a home, buying another and moving are significant, never mind the mental and physical toll.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

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Well, we had been thinking of selling and moving to a smaller home so it is not so bad an idea. I realize the "trauma " of the whole ordeal but I think it is worth a peek so was interested in how one should approach it re negotiations technique.
Thanks for the feed back though, I appreciate this .
Given the desire to sell, how would you proceed?
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by AltaRed »

$seeker wrote:Given the desire to sell, how would you proceed?
You need to determine the selling prices of comparables to establish a data point as to what is reasonable. If you cannot access that data yourself, you will need to ask a friendly RE agent or appraiser for the selling prices of such houses. It will take some effort. Only then can you be in a position to ask the question "What price did you have in mind?" Or "What is it worth to you?" If it far exceeds your data point, then you have a sell decision to make. If it is not above your data point, then I think that is a 'thank you, but no thank you'.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by $seeker »

Good advice, I will need to have a market price in mind using data as the guide to justify position.
Thank you again. I will investigate this as a next step.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by Insomniac »

If you live in BC, you can go to your local BC Assessment office and ask if you can see recent comparable sales for properties in your neighbourhood.

The sales on the website are from 2011. The office should be able to give you more recent data.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by kcowan »

AltaRed wrote:It will take some effort. Only then can you be in a position to ask the question "What price did you have in mind?" Or "What is it worth to you?" If it far exceeds your data point, then you have a sell decision to make. If it is not above your data point, then I think that is a 'thank you, but no thank you'.
I would have a floor price in mind including legal fees et al, then let they buyer bid. I would not negotiate, just say no if his bid is inadequate. After all, he brought it up. That way he might exceed your minimum with a subsequent bid. You should get a premium.

On a related topic, Canucks are big buyers of US RE:
G&M wrote:Canadians are playing a larger role in the U.S. housing market than in any year since 2007 and they outpace buyers from
China and Mexico by far, according to a new survey of American real estate brokers. The survey by the Washington-based
National Association of Realtors (NAR) said foreigners snapped up US$82.5 billion worth of houses in the 12-month period
ending March 31. That compared with $66.4-billion a year earlier. Canadians made up the largest share of purchasers,
accounting for 24% of all international sales. That compared with 23% in 2011 and 11% in 2007.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by blonde »

Someone has approached us wondering if we would be interested in selling our home to them
WOW!!! Do not be surprised when a 'Real-Opportunity' pops-up periodically...ACT asap and move-forward.

I never ever allow emotion to interfere with MONEY. The aim is to get the MOST for the Least.

Business is BUSINESS.

MONEY-TALKS, BIG-TIME.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by blonde »

AltaRed wrote:.................. Why even entertain the idea if there had been no plans or thoughts about selling in the first place? I'd pass on unsolicited interests and go on with my everyday life. The costs of selling a home, buying another and moving are significant, never mind the mental and physical toll.
Yabutt, us contrarians have the potential to describe the 'elephant' with a bigger and better 'Opportunity'.

In this day and age...Money is the only Real-Motivator...if ya'lls don't use-it, ya'lls will lose-it.

Stick with the Winners.

It is ALL about MONEY, Folks!!!
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple...Dr Seuss

Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind...Dr Seuss
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by randomwalker »

$seeker wrote:I wondered if I could get some opinions on negotiations for a Home.

Someone has approached us wondering if we would be interested in selling our home to them.
If you were in this position would you set the price or would you have the interested purchaser look and make an offer as the starting price. He has asked about a price in mind but we have not responded yet just passed info on interior description etc.
He has looked at a similar home in the area but it was purchased before he got his offer in. That house was newer but there are + and - regarding features between the two homes so should be close in value. The main issue with our home is it will need a new roof within a few years so he will have that over us.

If we have a number in mind would we move it up a certain % to have room for negotiations and if so how much room above our bottom line?

Thanks for any feed back .
I should think if one wants to sell something, anything one should place it on the open market and sell it to the highest bidder.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by northbeach »

Why not get a formal appraisal.
Add the cost of the appraisal and anticipated legal costs to price determined.
You may even tell the prospective buyer of your actions.
If all goes well you will save the 6% charged by brokers.
And time and effort of putting your house up for sale.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by patriot1 »

If someone makes you an unsolicited offer for anything it's almost certainly below market. You have no idea what anyone else would be willing to pay for it. Why did he pick you - because he really wants the property or because he thinks you're an easy mark?

Tell the guy you will list the property and you will sell to the highest bidder. If he's not willing to outbid the public that's proof he was trying to buy for below market.

An appraisal is just a guess.
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Re: Housing Bust 2012

Post by gsp_ »

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2 ... tened.html
The government announced Wednesday it will reduce the maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage, lowering it from 30 to 25 years, and also drop the upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity from 85 per cent to 80 per cent.
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