Housing Bust 2011

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?
User avatar
patriot1
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4883
Joined: 28 Feb 2005 03:53

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

Neither the PST, GST nor HST have ever applied to resale housing but I wouldn't be surprised if a great many people don't understand this - there appeared to be a surge of buying before the HST came into effect. BC does have a property transfer tax which applies to all sales.

I expect a "we pay HST" promotion will become pretty much standard for new sales until the PST comes back. As with all such promotions it's really an attempt to hide declines in the market price. Since the great majority of sales are resales they drive the broad market and sellers of new housing have to eat any tax such as the HST anyway.

The HST imbroglio has already been blamed for the dire state of the RE market in the BC Interior and I would expect it to be the scapegoat for any declines which may happen elsewhere.
User avatar
Beezy
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 109
Joined: 08 Jul 2008 16:28
Location: North Vancouver

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Beezy »

True.

I think in peoples minds when purchasing a new home over $525,000 (which will be subject to 5% rather than 12% after PST/GST comes back), they may think about this "savings" and hold off until the old system is back.

Is there any other additional savings on professional fees IE: RE Agents, Lawyers, ETC. ?
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Canadian Housing Prices Continue To Rise

Post by Rickson9 »

Prices were up in all six major metropolitan markets surveyed, with Toronto leading the pack at a 2.0% increase. Vancouver and Ottawa came in at +1.7%, while Calgary posted a 1.6% rise, Montreal +1.1% and Halifax +1.0%.

This is the ninth-straight monthly increase for Vancouver, and all-time index highs for five of the six cities.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... e-to-rise/
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
Beezy
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 109
Joined: 08 Jul 2008 16:28
Location: North Vancouver

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Beezy »

Anyone read anything interesting this month?

Seems like people in Vancouver and surrounding sub-urbs are still buying.

Does anyone have data on non-resident/immigrant ownership rates in Vancouver?
User avatar
patriot1
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4883
Joined: 28 Feb 2005 03:53

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

Beezy wrote: Seems like people in Vancouver and surrounding sub-urbs are still buying.
People are always buying in every RE market.
Does anyone have data on non-resident/immigrant ownership rates in Vancouver?
You can find some information on foreign purchases here:

https://www.landcor.com/market/market.aspx

There is no information on purchases of RE by immigrants versus resident Canadian citizens, because there is no legal distinction between them.
kbbt
Newcomer
Newcomer
Posts: 7
Joined: 23 Mar 2011 15:38
Location: Vancouver

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by kbbt »

[Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond SFH now have > 1year worth of Inventory]
Aug 23-Sept 24 2011 (vs July 23-Aug 24)

Burnaby: 6.1 -> 13.3 months

Coquitlam: 6.6 -> 12.7 months

Richmond: 11.5 -> 15.1 months

http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/09/bu ... ke-it-out/
http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/09/ri ... e-veggies/
http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/09/co ... -snapshot/
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

Definitely not a 'bust'. At least not yet.
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

TORONTO, Oct. 5, 2011 /CNW/ - The Royal LePage House Price Survey released today showed strong year-over-year gains for all housing types surveyed in Toronto citing a lack of inventory and continued demand supported by low interest rates.

Detached bungalows witnessed the largest year-over-year price increase at 9.4 per cent to $518,433. Prices for standard two-storey homes rose 7.6 per cent year-over-year to $620,862, while standard condominiums saw an increase of 6.0 per cent to $351,600.

"Although the number of unit sales is only slightly up in Toronto, inventory in the third quarter could not keep up with demand, which put upward pressure on home prices," said Gino Romanese, senior vice president, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. "A healthy supply of new construction in the condominium market meant more competition for resale units. This resulted in less price appreciation compared to traditional housing types such as the detached bungalow, which is becoming increasingly rare in Toronto as they are sought after by developers."
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/853403/ ... rd-quarter
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
patriot1
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4883
Joined: 28 Feb 2005 03:53

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

Last edited by patriot1 on 11 Oct 2011 14:42, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

Image

"Canadian housing starts jumped much more than expected in September, helped by a surge in the condominium sector, suggesting Canada’s property boom stayed intact last month and should help the economy avert recession. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Tuesday that starts rose to seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 205,900 units last month. August starts were revised up to 191,900 from 184,700. September starts far exceeded the consensus expectation of analysts, who had called for 188,000."
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... ams-ahead/
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

It’s going to crash, it’s going to crash. How many times have we heard this about the Canadian housing market? Sometimes commentators use more tempered language to describe a predicted “pullback” or a market that is going to “moderate.” The problem is that outside of the 2008 recession, when prices corrected 10% followed by a boomerang recovery, it has not been true. How do you are argue with almost 13 years of uninterrupted growth when the average sale price of a home in Canada has climbed from $152,365 in 1998 to $366,105 year to date in 2011. That’s a 140% increase, but who’s counting? Apparently, a few investors.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... -sure-bet/
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

Image
Canada’s banks, which emerged from the financial crisis mostly unscathed, stole the spotlight as they were recognized as the world’s strongest, but there’s a good argument to be made that our real estate market deserves some glory, too. Consider: for the better part of a decade house prices have been on the rise — apart from a brief decline in early 2009 — in most major cities across the country. If you zoom in on certain regions like Calgary or, say, Ontario cities like Windsor that have been hit by troubles in the auto industry, the curve gets a bit bumpy, but on a national basis Canadian real estate looks pretty good. Compared to the rest of the world, it’s a bastion of stability.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... h-for-now/
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
biker
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 2488
Joined: 19 Feb 2005 08:57

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by biker »

Live like you are dying but invest like you are immortal.

"Men do not quit playing because they grow old ; they grow old because they quit playing" Oliver Wendell Holmes
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

biker wrote:Good time to buy in the US?
Yes.

On another note, Toronto house prices continue to jump higher.

Image

"The fall weather has yet to cool house sales with sales of newly listed homes up 2.7 per cent in September over August and 11 per cent from a year earlier. A total of 361,749 houses were bought and sold via the MLS listings system between January and September, 1.2 per cent more than over the same period last year, according to statistics released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association."
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/107098 ... 3-480?bn=1
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
AltaRed
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 33398
Joined: 05 Mar 2005 20:04
Location: Ogopogo Land

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by AltaRed »

The further they rise, the harder they eventually fall. Good luck with that.
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki The go-to place to bolster your financial freedom
User avatar
CROCKD
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 3343
Joined: 15 Aug 2008 16:59
Location: GTA

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by CROCKD »

Saw this article in today's G&M on Appraisals.

Listings website pries open property data vault

I have been playing around with the appraisal tool using friends and family properties.

zoocasa

Would be interested to know what others think of it.
" A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it is written on " Samuel Goldwyn
"The light at the end of the tunnel may be a freight train coming your way" Metallica - No Leaf Clover
User avatar
newguy
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 8088
Joined: 10 May 2009 18:24
Location: Montreal

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by newguy »

CROCKD wrote:Would be interested to know what others think of it.
Interesting. You can register with a fake email, but you have to in order to use it.

I think it priced a few of my houses on the high end. I could find cheaper than the appraisal on mls.

newguy
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Looking to buy a condo? Get to the back of the line

Post by Rickson9 »

Targeting agents with strong ties to big buyers in the multicultural community — one developer calls them his “rainmaker list” — means developers can sell 70 per cent of the units in a project faster, which keeps costs down. That’s what most banks demand before they will free up loans to start construction. The practice has paid off: In 2005, it took an average of 13 months for condo builders to sell 70 per cent of their units, says George Carras, president of RealNet Canada, which monitors building activity across the GTA. This year, they’re hitting the threshold in just four months, largely because of their “growing sophistication” in wooing brokers who can deliver multiple investors.
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/107807 ... f-the-line
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
patriot1
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4883
Joined: 28 Feb 2005 03:53

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

Real house prices in the US are now back to where they were in 1990. That was the all time high before the bubble of the last decade.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/ ... ce-to.html
Attachments
RealHousePricesAug2011big.jpg
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Toronto Market Sizzling

Post by Rickson9 »

October existing home sales in the greater Toronto area market soared 17.5% from a year ago, the Toronto Real Estate Board says. The Toronto market numbers have been credited with boosting the national average price at a time when the Vancouver market has slowed. TREB said the average sale price in GTA reached $478,137 last month, an 8% increase from October 2010.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... ing-again/
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
AltaRed
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 33398
Joined: 05 Mar 2005 20:04
Location: Ogopogo Land

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by AltaRed »

Are Torontonians that slow to respond to the inevitable? That is going to be one mighty thud when the cards fall.
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki The go-to place to bolster your financial freedom
User avatar
Rickson9
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 669
Joined: 05 Apr 2011 00:00

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Rickson9 »

The 'inevitable' is that we're all going to die so it doesn't matter. :rofl:
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin
User avatar
brad911
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 1150
Joined: 29 Jan 2007 16:45
Location: London ON
Contact:

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by brad911 »

Some statistics out today that the average home price has increased 106% since the beginning of 2000.

I hate to be a downer, but does anyone really think that this type of an increase is logical, appropriate, etc?

I guess the real estate agents think it is...too bad about half of them will be unemployed in the next few years.

Interest rates have only one direction to go....
Triage Investing Blog - A Source for Value & Dividend Investing and Business Fundamentals
User avatar
DavidR
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 1937
Joined: 30 Oct 2005 08:33
Location: Toronto

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by DavidR »

brad911 wrote:Some statistics out today that the average home price has increased 106% since the beginning of 2000.
And ReMax also reported that an estimated $450 billion was spent on renovations during the last 10 years.

Very people seem to remember, when they're calculating the profits on their homes, the amount of money that has gone into improvements since their initial purchase...
dusty2
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 511
Joined: 11 Nov 2006 21:11
Location: burlington

Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by dusty2 »

Someone saying that a Toronto RE crash is inevitable is like a person saying that BMW's or computers or the price for a loaf of bread is getting so high that it's going to crash - good luck with that. Toronto's RE prices have gone up 77% in 10 years, compared to Vancouver's 128% or Regina's 168%. I've often thought that Toronto prices were quite reasonable, actually they seemed underpriced, which the latest price data seems to show is true.
Locked