Housing Bust 2011

Leveraging, renting vs owning, making an investment or buying a home?
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Shifty
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Housing Bust 2011

Post by Shifty »

Beezy wrote:Who's going to start the " Housing Bust 2011 " thread ? hahaha

One year we will be right :D
The first Housing Bust thread here started in 2006!

A sample comment from 4.5 years ago from patriot;

'BC is very, very, vulnerable to a US recession, or even a US housing crash without a recession (very unlikely IMHO) and anyone claiming otherwise is kidding himself.

BC is a trailer on the US SUV and if the wheels come off that SUV BC is going nowhere.'

Lots more like that from the usual harbringers of doom here.
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kcowan
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by kcowan »

Well maybe the housing market is just tracking the stock market? Inflated for no rational reason!
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by peter »

I got my Calgary property assessment. Up 9.5% compared to last year. Still 6% below 3 years ago, 2.5% below 2 years ago.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by nobleea »

We got our Edmonton city assessment.
12% higher than last year (we've done quite a few renos)
17% higher than 2 yrs ago
We moved in 2 years ago.
I think the assessment is a bit high.
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AltaRed
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by AltaRed »

peter wrote:I got my Calgary property assessment. Up 9.5% compared to last year. Still 6% below 3 years ago, 2.5% below 2 years ago.
Calgary, on average, is still ~8% down from the July 2007 peak. Most areas are up 0-10% from last year, but some areas are down from last year (all dependent on market activity in that area). For those unfamiliar with Alberta based MVA's, MVAs are done in July of each year. Assessments received this week for the basis of 2011 property taxes are based on Market Values of July 2010.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by couponstrip »

AltaRed wrote:
peter wrote:I got my Calgary property assessment. Up 9.5% compared to last year. Still 6% below 3 years ago, 2.5% below 2 years ago.
Calgary, on average, is still ~8% down from the July 2007 peak. Most areas are up 0-10% from last year, but some areas are down from last year (all dependent on market activity in that area). For those unfamiliar with Alberta based MVA's, MVAs are done in July of each year. Assessments received this week for the basis of 2011 property taxes are based on Market Values of July 2010.
A good point, particularly considering the Calgary real estate market has been soft since July. The tax assessments are always a little behind the trend. Our peak assessment came in 2008 when the real estate market was falling quite precipitously (as precipitous as real estate can anyway). Our current assessment is too high based on a couple of neighbourhood sales in the last month.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by nobleea »

nobleea wrote:We got our Edmonton city assessment.
12% higher than last year (we've done quite a few renos)
17% higher than 2 yrs ago
We moved in 2 years ago.
I think the assessment is a bit high.
Also got an appraisal done by the bank at the same time. This is due to a move to a readvanceable mortgage/heloc. They came in 9% lower than the city's assessment.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

nobleea wrote: Also got an appraisal done by the bank at the same time. This is due to a move to a readvanceable mortgage/heloc. They came in 9% lower than the city's assessment.
Same time as the assessment date (July 2010) or same time as you got the assessment (recently)?
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by nobleea »

patriot1 wrote:
nobleea wrote: Also got an appraisal done by the bank at the same time. This is due to a move to a readvanceable mortgage/heloc. They came in 9% lower than the city's assessment.
Same time as the assessment date (July 2010) or same time as you got the assessment (recently)?
Same time as I got the assessment. So a 6 month lag on the bank assessment.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by AltaRed »

Probably comparing apples and oranges despite the time difference. I have yet to see an appraiser appraise a property as high as Market Value (had many houses appraised over the years as part of corporate relocations). Their conservative nature I suppose. One is much better off comparing EREB median selling price in July 2010 with median selling price in Jan 2011.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by ghariton »

I'm not endorsing this stuff. I'm just reporting on what the experts are saying:
Across Canada, average house prices are forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $348,600 in 2011, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released Thursday.

Winnipeg, however, is expected to eclipse that national average by posting a 7-per-cent gain this year. That easily outpaces the 3.7-per-cent increase expected for Vancouver and the 1-per-cent gain forecast for Toronto.

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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

Royal LePage President, Phil Soper is engaged in media interviews today and throughout the week discussing The Royal LePage 2008 Market Survey Forecast that was distributed to the media this morning. Nationally, house prices are forecast to increase by 3.5% and unit sales are expected to decrease by 4.0% in 2008.
http://www.brendarussell.ca/Blog.php/75/

Interestingly, the link given to the 2008 forecast on the Royal Lepage website no longer works. :oops:
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by ig17 »

patriot1 wrote:Interestingly, the link given to the 2008 forecast on the Royal Lepage website no longer works. :oops:
2008 forecast
http://www.royallepage.ca/en/utility/ne ... spx?id=858

Now, what's your point? :lol:
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

ig17 wrote: Now, what's your point? :lol:
RE always goes up. At least in the Royal-LePage forecast. :rofl:
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by steves »

Here's a single agent's 2 page listing of 24 homes in West Van this Wednesday. These are all millions of dollars, rounded down. Highest 13.9 Mil, lowest 2.5 Mil.

13.9, 11.5, 10.4
9.9, 9.4, 8.9
5.9, 4.6, 6.9
6.4, 3.9, 3.4
7.5, 3.2, 4.3
2.5, 4.2, 4.0
3.5, 4.2, 4.9
9.9, 6.4, 9.9

I don't get it.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by NormR »

steves wrote:13.9, 11.5, 10.4
9.9, 9.4, 8.9
5.9, 4.6, 6.9
6.4, 3.9, 3.4
7.5, 3.2, 4.3
2.5, 4.2, 4.0
3.5, 4.2, 4.9
9.9, 6.4, 9.9.
I'll take the 9.9 million one. It sounds cheap. :wink:
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by adrian2 »

patriot1 wrote:RE always goes up. At least in the Royal-LePage forecast. :rofl:
Or, in Robert Allen's words from "Nothing Down for the 90's":
Conservatively, real estate appreciates by 10% a year. :rofl:
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by BRIAN5000 »

You can see your BC assessment online an compare it to 8 others for free. See all your neighbours assessments etc..

http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Search.aspx
This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by mac1214 »

Sarcastic bubbleheads, that's a good one. Bubbleheads are batting .000, they've never been right, always wrong. Robert Allans 10% rise prediction has happened a few times in Canada, while the bubbleheads prediction was, of course, 100% wrong. Bubbleheads would have been farther ahead, taking Allens advice, than their own. Sarcastic bubbleheads, that's a good one.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by big easy »

I suppose this has been posted before, but since its a new year...

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Re: Housing Bust 2011

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mac1214 wrote:Sarcastic bubbleheads, that's a good one. Bubbleheads are batting .000, they've never been right, always wrong. Robert Allans 10% rise prediction has happened a few times in Canada, while the bubbleheads prediction was, of course, 100% wrong. Bubbleheads would have been farther ahead, taking Allens advice, than their own. Sarcastic bubbleheads, that's a good one.
Not so sarcastic bubbledreamer, how about people in Florida, Phoenix AZ et al, down more than half? Robert Allen's advice has done wonders for them, too.

Let me ask you one point blank question, no ifs and buts: do trees grow to the sky? How do you expect housing to increase in cost by 10% or more annually when median incomes increase by around 3%? How many years can it continue at this "conservative" pace? Do you expect banks to eventually loan you a mortgage at negative interest rates? Compound away for enough time at 10% vs. 3% and people can't pay their mortgages any more. Take a break, think it through and then explain the magic.

As for yours truly, my GTA house, purchased a decade ago, has doubled in price, thank you very much. Does it help me? No, but it feels good.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Beezy »

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced new rules for Canadian mortgages on Monday that he said will "protect the stability of the economy."

* Mortgage amortization periods will be reduced from 35 years to 30 years.
* The maximum amount Canadians can borrow to refinance their mortgages will be lowered from 90 per cent to 85 per cent of the value of their homes.
* The government will withdraw its insurance backing on lines of credit secured on homes, such as home equity lines of credit.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/201101 ... es-110117/


Will this be the trigger?
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by Beezy »

The Bank of Canada announced earlier this month that Canadians' domestic debt burdens had hit the highest levels on record. The bank said the ratio of household debt to disposable income has reached 148 per cent -- which is higher than in the United States.
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by patriot1 »

But I thought they weren't making any more waterfront...

Image
This restored character house on an acre of Denman Island westfacing waterfront was first listed in 2007 for nearly $1.5 million, and recently sold for $665,000.

VANCOUVER -- A sharp drop in demand for B.C.’s high-end rural waterfront properties has resulted in price reductions that in some cases are substantial.

Unlike Metro Vancouver, which has seen a market rebound over the past year after a recessionary slowdown, many rural areas across the province have experienced a prolonged slowdown in sales of such properties.

As well, rich Albertans and other wealthy buyers who traditionally bought up B.C.’s recreational properties are increasingly looking south to places like Arizona and Nevada, where prices are often much lower following the U.S. real estate meltdown.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/So ... story.html
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Re: Housing Bust 2011

Post by steves »

I can't get a good read on the 'waterfront-ness' of this place on Denman. Is it high bank with rocky beach? Was the house built realistically, size-wise. Remember Denman and Hornby are primarily summer or retiree oriented.

This place looks like it was built for a young growing family. This is fine, except there is no well-paying work for a young family on either Denman or Hornby Islands.... a ferry commute every day? I don't think so.

I am on a similar location... west facing water front on Hornby.... except I am in a 1 level small Panabode. Low bank, sandy beach. I paid $425K four years ago.

I think whoever built this gazillion bedroom 3 level monster, didn't do his homework.
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