TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by Curmudgeon »

2yen wrote:Cuemudgeon...just curious, on what basis did you decide to purchase?
Greed? $1416 + $9.99 commission isn't a lot to risk for over 8% yield.

I already held 300 TA for the dividend income and it seemed like a good opportunity to add more. Including commission and the "enhanced" dividend, my yield on cost on 400 shares is now 7%. I didn't buy more because that would have put me overweight in TA. The company seems intent on maintaining the dividend (see Shakespeare), and even if it is cut in half, my yield would still be 3.5%. I may be naive, but I assume this is just a rough patch that will get sorted out in the long run. In the very worst case, TransAlta won't just disappear. All the plant and equipment has value, and it would likely be bought by another company like Fortis.
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by scomac »

Nemo2 wrote:After holding my nose and, against my 'better' judgement, keeping these things, I just unloaded them...

Now watch the bastards soar!
You just might be the smart one. I thought about doing the same and then decided to wait until the day before the dividend goes ex.

I'm going to have to rethink bottom-fishing... :?
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by $seeker »

Did the dividend go ex the end of August? Aug 29th with payment date Oct1
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by like_to_retire »

I thought about doing the same and then decided to wait until the day before the dividend goes ex.
Ahhh, come on scomac. Whatever happened to Buy Low, Sell High. Do you jump ship at the first sign of problems? Whenever everyone else is holding their nose is the time to buy isn't it?

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DavidR
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by DavidR »

like_to_retire wrote:.. Whenever everyone else is holding their nose is the time to buy isn't it?
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It depends.
Does it smell like one of Graham's cigar-butts, or a steaming turd? :wink:
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by uuuu »

buy 500 at 14.09. will wait to MM bump the price above 15.
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scomac
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by scomac »

$seeker wrote:Did the dividend go ex the end of August? Aug 29th with payment date Oct1
The next one. Hopefully the tax loss selling will be done by then and there will be some new bottom feeders reaching for yield.
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by scomac »

like_to_retire wrote:
I thought about doing the same and then decided to wait until the day before the dividend goes ex.
Ahhh, come on scomac. Whatever happened to Buy Low, Sell High. Do you jump ship at the first sign of problems? Whenever everyone else is holding their nose is the time to buy isn't it?

ltr
Sometimes, the first loss is the best loss.

You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

It seems that there are just as many axioms to rationalize getting out as there are to rationalize getting in and/or holding. :wink:
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newguy
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by newguy »

I started looking at TA as a buy today. I'm getting tired of waiting for XSB to go up and I want some juicy yield. I looked at a list of high yields and decided to research TA and POW. Then I got a letter from the school with 'please turn over' written on both sides and got stuck in an infinite loop. Bastards :evil:

It would help to see some other's analysis of their projected cashflow.

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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by $seeker »

scomac wrote:
$seeker wrote:Did the dividend go ex the end of August? Aug 29th with payment date Oct1
The next one. Hopefully the tax loss selling will be done by then and there will be some new bottom feeders reaching for yield.
OK, what is your guess on what will happen to share price as the tax loss selling picks up. How does one ever determine the bottom of the falling knife :?:

Also @ newguy
"It would help to see some other's analysis of their projected cashflow."
the analysts have been surprisingly close on this one if you followed the negative guys.
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scomac
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by scomac »

$seeker wrote: OK, what is your guess on what will happen to share price as the tax loss selling picks up. How does one ever determine the bottom of the falling knife :?:
If I had to pick a number out of thin air, then I would suggest it could go as low as $11.63 The long term chart made a double low there back in 1990. That roughly corresponds with the peaks made back in 1984. What are the chances of that you ask? Be my guest a pick a probability. While your at it, you may as well pick your own price too. :wink:

FWIW, you don't want my input on determining the bottom of a falling knife; my history hasn't been pretty. If I did happen to get something near the bottom, it was purely coincidence.
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by schmuck »

scomac wrote:
$seeker wrote: OK, what is your guess on what will happen to share price as the tax loss selling picks up. How does one ever determine the bottom of the falling knife :?:
If I had to pick a number out of thin air, then I would suggest it could go as low as $11.63 The long term chart made a double low there back in 1990. That roughly corresponds with the peaks made back in 1984. What are the chances of that you ask? Be my guest a pick a probability. While your at it, you may as well pick your own price too. :wink:

FWIW, you don't want my input on determining the bottom of a falling knife; my history hasn't been pretty. If I did happen to get something near the bottom, it was purely coincidence.
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by schmuck »

scomac wrote:
$seeker wrote: OK, what is your guess on what will happen to share price as the tax loss selling picks up. How does one ever determine the bottom of the falling knife :?:
If I had to pick a number out of thin air, then I would suggest it could go as low as $11.63 The long term chart made a double low there back in 1990. That roughly corresponds with the peaks made back in 1984. What are the chances of that you ask? Be my guest a pick a probability. While your at it, you may as well pick your own price too. :wink:

FWIW, you don't want my input on determining the bottom of a falling knife; my history hasn't been pretty. If I did happen to get something near the bottom, it was purely coincidence.
OOPS!
Dunno what happened there.

Anyway, I got a stink bid in about half way between Scot's number and the current price.
I,m pretty sure TA won't go broke and with all the analysts (that I have heard) claiming that the div is safe, it would be a shame to miss out on such a juicy yield.

I would not be surprised to see Ross Healy choose it as one of his top picks on Market Call tomorrow and pull it out of my range...for the time being.
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by newguy »

Coming from Quebec I was surprised to see how volatile wholesale electricity prices are. I would say TA's div is safe as long as nothing bad happens to the economy. It's not like Alberta is undersupplied with electricity.

When I said POW before I meant CPX. Capital Power. Their stock was down yesterday during a pretty big up day in the market. They have a pretty high dividend as well. I always thought utilities were more stable.

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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by ThinkDividends »

newguy wrote: I always thought utilities were more stable.
That is because Transalta and CPX are "independent power producers" instead of "real utilities" like Fortis and Emera.

Several analysts rate Transalta "Above Average Risk" for that reason. Don't be blinded by yield.
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by 2 yen »

Well, decision made: I'm hanging on. If TA was a RIM-like company with little prospect of returning to viability, I'd bail, but TA owns too much productive infrastructure in the relatively benign utility sector. I may well take a dividend cut hit, and I've decided I can live with it. I do, however, feel that management needs a swift kick up the ar_e. I'd be interested to know what parallels can be drawn with TransCanada's woes a few years back.
Thoughts?
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adrian2
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by adrian2 »

Ding, ding, ding!

The bell is ringing, the secondary offering has passed, the world has not ended, bargain hunters resume scheduled activities. Wake me up after a 50% rise from current prices (when it crosses $20).
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by like_to_retire »

adrian2 wrote:Ding, ding, ding!

The bell is ringing, the secondary offering has passed, the world has not ended, bargain hunters resume scheduled activities. Wake me up after a 50% rise from current prices (when it crosses $20).
I think there's still a 30 day over allotment period where an additional 2,887,500 can be purchased for the same price. I don't know what effect that would have.

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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by adrian2 »

adrian2, earlier today, wrote:The bell is ringing
... and it was not a timid door bell, but a cathedral bell - TA today was up $0.55 (3.86%), for a pseudo-utility, that's almost two quarterly dividends in a day!
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by adrian2 »

Another big move near close on Friday, on big volume (1.6 million shares in the final minutes).
$15.30, up $0.50 for the day, 5 months worth of dividends in a day.
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by Webber22 »

Looks like the top institutional holders ( RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC) added to their holdings via block trades on opening and at the closing extended trading. Most hold about $200M each so to them this is pocket change
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by BRIAN5000 »

up $0.50 for the day, 5 months worth of dividends in a day.
and all gone 4 days later.
This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by Shakespeare »

Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by adrian2 »

Up $0.49 to $15.71 -- another 5 months worth of dividends in a day.

Higher highs, lower lows. Ding! Dong!
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Re: TransAlta (Symbol-TA)

Post by scomac »

adrian2 wrote:Up $0.49 to $15.71 -- Ding! Dong!
I think the bell wrang about a month ago.

I don't have as much as I would have liked, but I've got enough to make it worthwhile especially when you factor in the bonds I bought.
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