TC Energy formerly TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Shakespeare
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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<OT>I'm a much bigger fan of solar than wind.</OT>
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Brilliant!

Of course, even ordinary windows can act as passive solar collectors. But generating electricity would be a new ball game -
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by AltaRed »

This thing has been on a tear very recently. Sentiment about getting something out of the Keystone XL challenge? Or the Columbia purchase? This puppy has seen almost a 50% gain since its lows early this year. Extraordinary for a pipe IMO.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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AltaRed wrote:This thing has been on a tear very recently. Sentiment about getting something out of the Keystone XL challenge? Or the Columbia purchase? This puppy has seen almost a 50% gain since its lows early this year. Extraordinary for a pipe IMO.
Just this a.m. noticed the same thing. Yeah, what's going on?

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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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The hope for getting something out of the Keystone XL challenge should be a fairly far off event. At the same time, I think that it is a NAFTA challenge. For both these reasons I doubt that it is influencing anything.

I wonder if there is a possibility that The Mainline has a better future than previously thought independant of the outcome of Energy East...
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Arby
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Arby »

The YTD increase in TRP is mirrored almost exactly by a similar YTD increase in Pembina:
TRP vs PPL.jpg
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by AltaRed »

Interesting but I don't get it. Nothing has really changed in 2016 other than the sentiment that oil production is not going to fall off the horizon and the pipes will remain full. Expansion is a wholly different speculative notion. I don't see it happening beyond completion of current projects (Horizon and Fort Hills).
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Thanks Arby. That takes most of the wind out of my sails of speculation.

Still, I like to continue to hope that there will be a future for The Mainline. I don't know what anyone else thinks but I am almost 100% convinced that major oil transportation projects (i.e. Transmountain, Northern Gateway and Energy East) are dead. Justin Trudeau has a profound, even overwhelming, respect for the First Nations people. He also appears to be extremely reluctant to give the go ahead to any form of development that may in the least way affect the environment. IMO, both of these factors are incompatible with new pipelines.
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Shakespeare
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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TransCanada to sell $3.5-billion of shares, U.S. power business - The Globe and Mail
The moves are expected to help the company achieve annual dividend increases at the higher end of its previously stated range of 8 per cent to 10 per cent through 2020.

In the bought deal, TransCanada will offer 54.8-million shares at $58.50 (Canadian) apiece.
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Shakespeare
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Shakespeare wrote:TransCanada to sell $3.5-billion of shares, U.S. power business - The Globe and Mail
The moves are expected to help the company achieve annual dividend increases at the higher end of its previously stated range of 8 per cent to 10 per cent through 2020.

In the bought deal, TransCanada will offer 54.8-million shares at $58.50 (Canadian) apiece.

Now trading at 57.90. I already have a full position and won't add.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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I find 57.90 still quite expensive, which is no doubt why TRP tapped the market. A year ago, TRP was on sale at 41 ~ 42.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Exactly. Wake me up at $42-$45.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Sensei »

Hi,

Agreed. Still pricey. My cost base is 32.70, but of course I bought years ago. More importantly, I consider TRP to be recently a higher risk play than many other companies of the same size. Continued demonstrations and protests, right or wrong, are gaining public attention and a sympathetic hearing from the current government. Pipelines aren't getting built (or won't), and the oil industry is in flux. I would want to be paid a good dividend before any further investments in this company and 3.91%, today's yield, just doesn't cut it. 5% plus would be my entry point, so right, low to mid 40s would get my attention.

I'm also leary these days of companies that promise outsize dividend increases.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Wallace »

Comments upthread noted. canadian-natural-resources-limited-goes-to-war-with-transcanada-corporation

I've had TransCanada in my portfolio since the end of the 1990s and done very well with it. But perhaps it is time to double down.

Can TRP continue to demand high fees when the price of oil is so depressed?
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Hammerer »

I like to think "yes". Crude Price does not matter as much as "desire for suppliers to get to market".

I just hope Transcanada gets a big cut out of whatever pipeline gets built next.

There'a more and more oil sands production coming online, rail is inconvenient and possibly saturated, and lower prices spurs more production when you have a big capex to pay-off.

Similar to how refiners have done well for themselves with a glut of crude oil.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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AltaRed
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Lots of hurdles to cross though to actually get going. If you thought the DAP had difficulties, just wait for dirty oil to want to traverse a similar path.
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Arby
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Very muted reaction in TRP's stock price after the Keystone announcement. TRP's stock is up around 1% today, (versus EMA and ENB up around 0.5%).
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Arby wrote: 24 Mar 2017 12:14 Very muted reaction in TRP's stock price after the Keystone announcement. TRP's stock is up around 1% today, (versus EMA and ENB up around 0.5%).
Because the market has baked in the approval and/or because it will take many months or even a year or more for construction to begin.... and some small possibility it will be stalled in the courts of Nebraska ad nauseum. Nothing is a given yet.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Energy East is officially deceased -- TransCanada kills controversial Energy East Pipeline project - The Globe and Mail. The official news release can be found at TransCanada Announces Termination of Energy East Pipeline and Eastern Mainline Projects
TransCanada wrote:As a result of its decision not to proceed with the proposed projects, TransCanada is reviewing its approximate $1.3 billion carrying value, including allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC) capitalized since inception and expects an estimated $1 billion after-tax non-cash charge will be recorded in the company's fourth quarter results. TransCanada stopped capitalizing AFUDC on the project effective August 23, 2017, as disclosed on September 7, 2017. In light of the project’s inability to reach a regulatory decision, no recoveries of costs from third parties are expected.
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AltaRed
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by AltaRed »

As a shareholder, I am glad TRP is throwing in the towel. There is no political will for what would have been a strategic Atlantic tidewater port for potential exports to Europe (CETA anyone?), never mind potential elimination of crude imports from Montreal to the East Coast. May Coderre freeze in the dark.

Added: TRP can now put their efforts around more willing gov'ts in the southern USA and Mexio.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by nisser »

It's good for shareholders and terrible for Canada. Time to start creating jobs and energy self-reliance for the Americans at Canadian expense....
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Basic economics – not regulation – killed the Energy East pipeline - The Globe and Mail
The NEB approved a new price plan between TransCanada and natural gas producers that slashed the price that producers paid to send the gas to Ontario. The new price is less than half the old price. Producers in Western Canada, home of some of the most prolific and low-cost natural gas sources in North America, have signed up in droves for the new deal. The new low shipping cost will make western natural gas competitive in the east once again.

The end of the Energy East pipeline doesn't mean the end of Western Canadian oil production. Its cancellation was a symptom – not the key cause – of reduced future oil production.

Although the king of Canadian energy infrastructure projects may be dead, the old regime of Western Canadian natural gas will be restored in its place.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by AltaRed »

IMO, partially true, but not entirely. Clearly, now that the threat of stranded gas pipe is most likely no longer an issue for TRP shareholders, and already being in the hole for $1+B for pre-Energy East costs with no end in sight, there is not nearly the same incentive to keep banging one's head on concrete. Have to minimize shareholder exposure. Federal politicians have been quick to pass the buck.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Descartes »

As a patriotic Canadian (and I say this without a hint of irony), I'm disappointed.
For the good of our economy, we need ways of getting what we have to the rest of the world without having to go through the USA.

As an ex-TRP stockholder (and I say this without a hint of shorty-ness), how can you remaining stockholders justify that P/E?
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