TC Energy formerly TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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AltaRed
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by AltaRed »

I can't justify it at all and it will get worse with the Energy East writedown coming 4Q. The context is about looking longer term and sometime in 2018 may be the day of reckoning for me holding this stock if Q1 or Q2 earnings don't take off. Otherwise, TRP needs to have valuation compression like ENB has been going through.
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Shakespeare
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Shakespeare »

TRP used to be a trader - buy at $45, sell at $60. Maybe it's going back to that. :wink:
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by scomac »

Shakespeare wrote: 05 Oct 2017 18:59 TRP used to be a trader - buy at $45, sell at $60. Maybe it's going back to that. :wink:
Is that a hint? :wink:
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Shakespeare
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Shakespeare »

Who knows? :lol:
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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brad911 wrote: 02 Nov 2016 20:08 Exactly. Wake me up at $42-$45.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by JaydoubleU »

I've been too busy this week to respond to this one, but I have been thinking about it.

Two thoughts: 1) Supply and demand will rule, and the oil will get to market by rail, if the price is right to justify production. 2) I hope TRP will move now more quickly in the direction of renewables. Meanwhile, I'd like to see the FEDs compensate Alberta, and maybe all provinces dependent on oil revenue, to allow them to transition their economies away from oil. Oil revenue helped sustain OUR standard of living over the years, and it's only right that WE share in Alberta's (et al) transition and recovery. This should be a very long term project and not the short-term mandate of a single government.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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I don't see renewables replacing natural gas for heat in my lifetime no matter what the utterances from places like Queen's Park. Demand will continue to grow because they keep building houses. They maybe more energy efficient, but they will still need a heat source in this country. Carry on.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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More energy efficient, but I would also venture a guess that the average square footage (or cubic footage with higher ceilings, foyers, etc) is going up and leads to higher consumption.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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That is the closest I have read to the truth.... The revival of Keystone XL was a key factor. That said, if one of Keystone XL, Kinder Morgan or Line 3 do not go, then shippers are back in a pickle. For Canada's sake, Energy East would have made a lot more economic and strategic sense than Keystone XL. We simply do not need to be so beholden to Gulf Coast refineries as we are today. Tidewater pipelines would be so much better.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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AltaRed wrote: 10 Oct 2017 10:35 That is the closest I have read to the truth.... The revival of Keystone XL was a key factor. That said, if one of Keystone XL, Kinder Morgan or Line 3 do not go, then shippers are back in a pickle. For Canada's sake, Energy East would have made a lot more economic and strategic sense than Keystone XL. We simply do not need to be so beholden to Gulf Coast refineries as we are today. Tidewater pipelines would be so much better.
Interesting to hear you say that, AR. Do you think that there might also have been a knock-on from the cancellation of Petronas' LNG plans? That is, the prospect of so much gas going to be exported from the west coast will have meant less gas sent eastward, thereby justifying re-purposing the gas line for Energy East.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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I don't think the demise of the LNG projects made much difference because the Montney, etc. would have continued to be drilled up to support the project. But that said, everything is a factor to some degree. The key issue probably stll is the inability to get sufficient shipper commitment. That said, it is not yet a given than ANY of the 3 remaining projects will actually go ahead given stumbling blocks that Keystone XL and Line 3 replacement still have to overcome. It was much simpler in my day as a producer to sign up a commitment to the one and only expansion game in town.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Seems all the major pipelines got whack-a-moled today.....
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Talk about bad timing ... TransCanada Keystone pipeline leaks 795,000 litres of crude oil in South Dakota - CBC News
CBC wrote:The leak, which it said happened about 35 kilometres south of its Ludden pump station on a right-of-way, comes as Nebraska Public Service Commission is set to vote on the Keystone XL project on Nov. 20 to clear the last major regulatory hurdle for the $8 billion project.
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AltaRed
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by AltaRed »

If TRP didn't have bad luck, they'd have no luck at all...

(to borrow and modify a well known quote)
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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You know the brokers pronounce "TRP" as "Trap", right? :lol:
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Nebraska approves alternative route for TransCanada’s Keystone XL - The Globe and Mail
Nebraska's Public Service Commission ruled on Monday that TransCanada's Keystone XL can be built along a "mainline" route, which shifts the line east of its preferred path....
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Now it will be the environmentalists and other misguided folks, i.e. Standing Rock2, turn to try and derail construction. TRP also still has to get ROW land access agremeents (permitting) in place and that will be contentious too (aka what the dim lights in Burnaby are doing to impede KML)
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Well, the BIG PIPES are having a good day, but Enbridge is in the lead now. I guess it was by far the most oversold. Anyway, I'm liking is, as I own both.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Shakespeare »

From behind the G&M paywall:

Why TransCanada investors haven't benefited from the Keystone approval - The Globe and Mail
First, the Keystone XL pipeline is still not a done deal....

Second, TransCanada shares have been doing well for the past year....

And third, Keystone has never been the one-and-only reason to invest in TransCanada....

Come for the infrastructure, stay for the dividend and look at new pipeline approvals as a nice little sideshow.
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Pickles »

Nice summary, Shakespeare.
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Shakespeare
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

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Thank you. :beer:
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by willowberry »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: 16 Nov 2017 17:52 Talk about bad timing ...
My first reaction was..a little too coincidental..sabotage?
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by thedude99 »

I think many on here have owned this name going on two decades. I notice that in the early 2000's this thing went down to around $10. Does anyone recall what was going on back then to warrant this? Well besides the meltdown in the markets at that time of course. TRP has been around forever but appears as though their stock only came into existence in the late 90's??
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Re: TransCanada (Symbol-TRP)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

An unexpected dividend cut was largely to blame. From December 8, 1999 -- TransCanada stock drops after dividend cut - Business - CBC News
CBC in December 1999 wrote:Shares of TransCanada Pipelines Ltd. took a beating on the Toronto stock market Wednesday after the company announced it was cutting its generous dividend by close to a third. The announcement came as TransCanada put all of its non-core businesses up for sale.

The stock dropped $2 in early trading and by the end of the day was down $2.45 to $13.00 on a trading volume of more than 12 million shares.

Investors were reacting to the surprise cut in TransCanada's $1.12 dividend -- one of the highest yielding dividends paid by any company trading on the TSE. TransCanada lowered the dividend to 80 cents a share, despite repeated assurances that it wouldn't make a cut.
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