Technical analysis anyone?

Discuss your favourite picks, broker, and trading or investment style.
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Interested in technical analysis?

Yes, use it all the time.
15
12%
Yes, but not seriously.
21
17%
Yes, I'm just learning about it.
18
14%
No, unfamiliar with it.
11
9%
No, tried it but don't use it.
5
4%
No, it's a load o' crap!
51
40%
"Get a life and stop asking stupid questions!" (as per Shakespeares' request)
6
5%
 
Total votes: 127

tr.invest
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Technical analysis anyone?

Post by tr.invest » 09 Mar 2005 19:41

Anyone know a good Canadian-oriented TA forum? Or willing to discuss it here?

I'm currently having fun learning TA, intrigued by charts, indicators, and figuring out the underlying psychology. But I find I'm talking to myself far too often, and usually in circles. And no, I don't consider it a short-cut to riches or a substitute for fundamental DD.

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Post by Brix » 10 Mar 2005 10:42

It's easy to get the impression that there's far more expert instruction in TA to be found than there is expert practise of the art. Who are the notable successes, the star investors with impressive, durable track records, who rely on technical analysis (yet do not offer instruction via books, seminars, or what have you)?

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Post by tr.invest » 11 Mar 2005 15:30

Good point, but then I don't judge a style/technique/methodology based on outspoken "successes". Everything works differently for everyone. Those who are really successful are quietly making their profits (or just controlling their risks) and aren't concerned with teaching the uninformed.

I think one problem is that those who have mastered the "art" (and do offer books, seminars, etc.) have been doing it for 20, 30+ years; then, people come along from any background, hear these guys, read the "dummies" guide and think "hey, this looks easy". (BTW I'm not talking about the "Make $10000 a week trading <insert security here>" hucksters). Learning the stuff (and applying it) is no different than any vocation; and is no different than any aspect of investing.

Hm, 99 views, 11 votes, and only 2 are interested. Looks like I've got some work to do. :D

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Norbert Schlenker
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Post by Norbert Schlenker » 11 Mar 2005 18:54

Have you read Schwager's two Market Wizards books? As long as you realize that he was drooling on these people's shoes just because they had let him in the front door - some of the questioning is so softball that you will swear that he and Larry King are twins - they can be very instructive. You will find believers in TA in the books (and skeptics too) but the one thing you will not find is agreement among the TA aficionados as to what works.
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Post by dagan » 11 Mar 2005 22:36

[Restored from backup 2006-07-18]

Look hard enough for something and you eventually become convinced that you can actually see it.
Last edited by dagan on 18 Jul 2006 11:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by dakota » 13 Mar 2005 15:13

dagan wrote:Look hard enough for something and you eventually become convinced that you can actually see it.
I do some trading in precious metals and sometimes use the site below, it is used mostly to confirm ( or not) my own feelings about a stock. :)

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis ... mode=stock

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Post by tr.invest » 14 Mar 2005 11:58

but the one thing you will not find is agreement among the TA aficionados as to what works.
As you can find in any technique. Which valuation ratios to use, what do you compare them to, calculating earnings and estimates, etc. If there was agreement, it would be a pretty dull field, and it would be even less effective (ignoring the whole stock-picking debate of course). Before I learned anything about TA I was skeptical about its usefulness if "everyone" used the same signals. Then I found out just how much variety there is.

Given how much time and effort TAs spend trying to find the ultimate indicator/pattern/whatever, I wonder if maybe something's being missed by not sticking to the basics.
Look hard enough for something and you eventually become convinced that you can actually see it.
Is that a warning or good advice? :D (it sure ain't easy...) Yeah, I've heard all such arguments, but I didn't want to get into a debate over TA. Just looking for other lurkers that might feel out of place with TA among the vocal non-TA majority.

dakota, thanks for the site. Looks interesting -- I'll have to play with it.

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Post by arthur » 14 Mar 2005 15:07

try Stock.TA.com

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Post by dakota » 19 Mar 2005 09:53

I'm Howard wrote:try Stock.TA.com
Do you have an URL for that?

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arthur
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Post by arthur » 19 Mar 2005 12:25


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Post by arthur » 19 Mar 2005 12:26


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Post by dakota » 19 Mar 2005 13:15

Oops.. that's the one I mentioned so already have it. Sorry for the trouble.

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Post by gummy » 20 Mar 2005 03:05

tr.invest

I don't take TA seriously, but it's GREAT fun!
I play in that sandbox all the time!
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Bollinger.htm

What's most intriguing (to me) is to see if such animals as "crossing the umpteen day moving average" actually capture investor sentiment which, I think, has a significant effect on the market.

I suspect that everybuddy looks at charts (instead of numbers).
If you'd like to see the relationship between stock prices and whatzit, a chart is good, eh?

If lots of investors act on such a chart, what do y'all think will happen to the stock price?
(I've used to feel that the Black-Scholes pricing for options was crap ... but then everybuddy uses it :? )

Don't be surprised at the number of negative votes :)
I'd be happy to discuss TA, because it's ... uh, fun!
(Have I already said that?)

P.S.

A google search finds plenty of such forums.
I don't know of any Canadian ones.

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Post by Lado » 20 Mar 2005 09:14

I am a fairly active stock investor and have occasionally dabbled with TA but found it to be of little value. That said, I do find some value in looking at a price chart for the past twelve months to determine the level of upward price momentum a stock has.

For a list of TA resources click on the link below to visit the Internet Resources page on the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts web site.

http://www.csta.org/education/internet.html
http://www.etf2x.com/

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Technical Analysis ...

Post by couldawouldashoulda » 20 Mar 2005 12:24

I've of technical analysis and moving averages, etc. and have been trying to find some useful information on learning about these indicators. Thanks for the above-mentioned sites. Is there maybe one or two books that are worthwhile to read concerning TA?
There's no present. There's only the immediate future and the recent past.

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Post by Lado » 20 Mar 2005 13:00

Go to the book section of Amazon.com and perform a search on "technical analysis stock". Sort the list of 367 books on the basis of "Average Customer Review". There is a plethora of books on TA of stocks but a good general book which explains the various techniques with example charts may be what you are looking for.


Another site you may want to visit is MarketScreen.com ( http://www.marketscreen.com/ ).

Lado
http://www.etf2x.com/

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Post by tr.invest » 21 Mar 2005 16:02

trying to find some useful information on learning about these indicators
Try StockCharts.com "Chart School" at http://stockcharts.com/education/Indica ... index.html

I found "The Investor's Guide to Technical Analysis" by Curt Renz too basic. But then, I started with Martin Pring's "Technical Analysis Explained" which is nice and hefty; pretty comprehensive on both charts and indicators. "Technical Analysis from A to Z" by Steven Achelis is an encyclopedic listing of everything you want to know about TA. I only glanced through it a few years back, so I don't remember how detailed it gets into each indicator.

Check out two US-based investor/trader specialty stores:
http://www.traderspress.com/
http://www.traderslibrary.com/

They both offer free books if you sign up for their email Newsletter. Not a great free selection but I picked up "Charting Made Easy" and "Understanding Bollinger Bands". They aren't worth buying IMO, but not bad for freebies.

And if you watch for the right special (changes every 1-2 weeks) you can pick up cheap-ish books. Even with S&H it worked out to about 50% off what Amazon.ca was listing (although there's a minimum order). Took a few months of watching, though, before the books I wanted were all on sale at the same time. And yes, I used my Cdn Mastercard which means I got dinged with the foreign exchange service fee. [oops, wrong thread :wink: ]
gummy wrote:Don't be surprised at the number of negative votes
I'd be happy to discuss TA, because it's ... uh, fun!
Actually we're gaining on 'em! And I've noticed you have fun with such things, almost more than one person should be allowed! :D

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Technical analysis...

Post by unicef01 » 18 May 2005 00:25

Fundamental analysis tells us what to buy....

Technical analysis tells us when to buy it...

opinions ?


I'm a newbie to technical analysis, having long believed the academic idea that technical analysis is a bunch of horse donuts.....but i'm more and more convinced that there's something to it... I like the point and figure charts, as they keep things simple and reduce the 'noise' that shows up in other charts (bar, candle, etc)...

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Post by scomac » 18 May 2005 08:55

Fundamental analysis tells us what to buy....

Technical analysis tells us when to buy it...
The market price for any given security consists of two components; the underlying fundamentals of the security and the market's participants view of what this is worth. Intuitively, it makes sense to pay attention to technical indicators as this is method of "measuring" the opinion portion of a securities price.

Both O'Shaughnessy's and Dreman's studies failed to find any merits in the use of technical strategies in delivering excess returns above the market. To a student of value investing, this should come as no surprise. Graham (and his disciples) have continually advised that we focus on the fundamentals and ignore the noise. If we define noise as being the opinion portion of a security's price, then by extension, that means ignoring technical analysis. This is critical, I think, because a number of rules of technical investing aren't in a value investor's best interest --- never buy a stock in a down trend, never average down, always use a stop loss. If you've done a proper job of evaluating a security, these rules could lead you errors of commission and ommission.

At the end of the day, it makes very little sense to water down the value anomaly with what amounts to a momentum strategy that promotes excessive trading.

JMHO,

Scott
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830

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Post by Adastra » 19 May 2005 14:32

This is an age -old question and you will find arguments in support of both fundamental and technical analysis. I won't rehash those arguments. Personally, they are investing tools and I believe in the adage: Know the fundamentals, trade the technicals.
But, hey, whatever works for your style of investing.

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Technical Analysis

Post by arthur » 19 Dec 2005 09:11

There are several sites that give great technical information on individual stocks, including Target Prices and buy/Sell.

gumm et al are into this chartist stuff but I wonder to people here use those sites to make a decision or to confirm a decision.

I am looking at ELN/NYSE, Stockchart says it is a screaming Buy, I am buying Calls and Puts, but am trying to determine whether to baby step or jump in.

I am selling Calls against my Pfizer shares.

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Post by N. Vestor » 19 Dec 2005 10:50

Please provide a list of several of these websites which provide such recommendations.

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Post by arthur » 19 Dec 2005 10:56


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Post by arthur » 19 Dec 2005 10:57


jiHymas
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Re: Technical Analysis

Post by jiHymas » 19 Dec 2005 17:46

I'm howard wrote:I wonder to people here use those sites to make a decision or to confirm a decision.
Nope. I've never seen any rigorous evidence that it works.

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