BlackBerry (Symbol-BB) formerly Research in Motion (RIM)

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adrian2
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BlackBerry (Symbol-BB) formerly Research in Motion (RIM)

Post by adrian2 » 08 Mar 2005 13:26

I've been itching to short this stock for a long time, but I've decided that I'll wait for a technical signal first.

Yesterday's down movement was good enough for me; last night Richard Croft on Market Call Tonight suggested a bearish spread as well.

Today I took the plunge, using Montreal's exchange no less. Basically, it's almost a 50/50 bet: limited upside = $12 (best case: stock below CA$65), limited downside = $13 (worst case: stock above $90), break even with stock at $77 at expiration in September.

RIM is now at $78 and change.

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Post by George$ » 08 Mar 2005 13:51

Adrian:
I've been itching to short this stock for a long time, but I've decided that I'll wait for a technical signal first.


This is not my shtick and thus I'm curious as your reasons for doing the above.

It seems to this a clear gambling hunch on your part. Even if RIM is "mispriced" - how do we know on what timescale it will correct?

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Post by adrian2 » 08 Mar 2005 13:57

George$ wrote:It seems to this a clear gambling hunch on your part. Even if RIM is "mispriced" - how do we know on what timescale it will correct?
Sure, it's a gamble / judgement call / anti-stratospheric PE move.
It's pretty close to a coin toss from a risk / reward ratio.
I've always had a value bias / contrarian instinct.

What timescale? I don't know. I've picked September because it's usually a pretty bad month (yes, I know Mark Twain's quote).
Hopefully, technical analysis will work in this case (i.e. will continue the correction already started).

Adrian

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Norbert Schlenker
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Post by Norbert Schlenker » 08 Mar 2005 14:28

Adrian, why not just short RIM outright?
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.

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Post by adrian2 » 08 Mar 2005 15:54

Norbert Schlenker wrote:Adrian, why not just short RIM outright?
Guts missing.

The other option I had in mind was a pseudo-short by buying deep in the money long term puts. I was too cheap to do it with borrowed money, however.

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Norbert Schlenker
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Post by Norbert Schlenker » 21 Jul 2005 15:11

Could you get a better signal to short a stock than this?
... Last Tuesday, a friend forwarded an annoying press release that has to go down as one of the goofiest promotions of all time. Papa John's (PZZA, news, msgs) has announced an offer -- in partnership with Research In Motion (RIMM, news, msgs), I assume, since Papa John can't be covering the cost of these gadgets -- where if you order a pizza online, you can get a free BlackBerry 7100G handheld device.

According to Papa John's release: "To take advantage of the offer, customers must order online via www.papajohns.com and add to their pizza order two 20-oz. beverages and choice of any delicious side item."

(Additionally, customers must purchase "a new two-year voice and data service plan," and send in for a company rebate.)

So, let me see if I get this: If you buy a couple of Cokes and some chicken strips or bread sticks, that is considered to be fair trade for a BlackBerry. ...
Fleckenstein, MSN Money
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Post by Shakespeare » 21 Jul 2005 15:40

The sting is the
customers must purchase "a new two-year voice and data service plan"
This is the old Gillette/Polaroid/Kodak trick: give them a free razor and soak them for the blades. :wink:
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Post by Small Investor Activist » 07 Oct 2005 23:20

This company hasn't come close to paying back investors after years of lofty valuation. And now, the money they're earning is being used to pay back a company that claims it stole its technology.

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Re: Research in Motion

Post by adrian2 » 07 Oct 2005 23:25

adrian2 wrote:Basically, it's almost a 50/50 bet: limited upside = $12 (best case: stock below CA$65), limited downside = $13 (worst case: stock above $90), break even with stock at $77 at expiration in September.

RIM is now at $78 and change.
Oh well...

As my options expired in September, I've lost the max per contract (stock was $92 at expiry).
If I only had chosen one more month to expiry, today I would have been sitting with a pretty profit :evil:

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Post by Shakespeare » 07 Oct 2005 23:35

If I only had chosen one more month to expiry, today I would have been sitting with a pretty profit
The trouble with options is that you must not only get the direction right [it's sometimes pretty clear that something is overvalued], but the timing - which is essentially unpredictable.
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Post by Bylo Selhi » 08 Oct 2005 19:47

Well some good came from RIM. We spent the afternoon at the Perimeter Institute's Einsteinfest. Everything's free (read: paid for by MikeL and the boys ;)) except for concerts (From Joplin to Jelly Roll - The Birth of Jazz with Elite Syncopation was fantastic!) and food. A much better deal than JDSU stock or even Oktoberfest. I'm going back tomorrow for more ;)
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Re: Research in Motion

Post by adrian2 » 26 Oct 2005 13:45

adrian2, on Tue Mar 08, 2005 wrote:Basically, it's almost a 50/50 bet: limited upside = $12 (best case: stock below CA$65), limited downside = $13 (worst case: stock above $90), break even with stock at $77 at expiration in September.

RIM is now at $78 and change.
adrian2, on Fri Oct 07, 2005 wrote:As my options expired in September, I've lost the max per contract (stock was $92 at expiry).
Shakespeare, on Fri Oct 07, 2005 wrote:The trouble with options is that you must not only get the direction right [it's sometimes pretty clear that something is overvalued], but the timing - which is essentially unpredictable.
Sound of banging my head to the wall :evil:

RIM is now $62 ...

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Post by Bylo Selhi » 11 Nov 2005 09:48

Meanwhile both Uncle Sam and Ottawa suffer under various forms of CrackBerry addiction. Indeed Uncle Sam has come to its dealer's defense in order to ensure a steady supply of the drug. Just declare NTP's lawsuit to be a terrorist threat to national security.
The U.S. government waded into the high-stakes legal battle between Research In Motion Ltd. and patent collector NTP Inc. yesterday, saying a possible U.S. ban of the popular BlackBerry wireless e-mail device could put essential government services in jeopardy. "The injunction would literally prevent RIM from providing the services that would be essential for the federal government, as well as state and local governments, to continue their use of the BlackBerry devices," the U.S. Department of Justice stated in a court filing... "This really throws a wrench into things [for NTP]," Mr. Johnson said. "It brings to this [legal] forum a national-security and government-functioning imperative that was not there before."
Copies of standard email messages sent from the devices are archived automatically by government and in theory, can be obtained through the Access to Information Act.

But the BlackBerry has a back channel message system as well, allowing people to send messages directly to each other's machines, using individual Personal Information Numbers, or PINs, which are encoded on each device. And government officials have realized these PIN-to-PIN messages are not automatically retained. In fact, they are more likely to be deleted, completely sidestepping access rules. The government has no protocol or software in place to systematically retain copies of these messages.
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Post by Bylo Selhi » 29 Jan 2006 17:15

Patently Absurd
An obscure patent case that could have been settled for a few million bucks has morphed into a billion-dollar dagger hanging over RIM, an enigma for investors and a distraction for legions of hooked BlackBerry users. A U.S. judge has threatened to shut down RIM's BlackBerry network next month for violating a handful of a dead man's patents — patents that U.S. authorities now concede may not be worth the paper they're printed on. How it all happened is a twisted tale of bold inventions, hubris, pride, backroom lobbying and one colossal legal blunder by a sometimes naive Canadian startup eager to make it big in the vast U.S. market.
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Post by Bylo Selhi » 24 Feb 2006 14:02

Judge reserves decision on RIM
U.S. District Judge James Spencer declined to issue an immediate injunction Friday against Research In Motion Ltd. in the BlackBerry maker's long-running patent dispute with NTP Inc. The judge reserved his decision, remarking that the patent case should have already been settled and that a damages order may come soon. RIM shares soared on the decision, climbing $9.77 or 12 per cent to $89.79 in Toronto. They retreated to $86.87.

Co-chief executive Jim Balsillie told CNBC after the hearing that RIM will press ahead with its workaround solution, because settlement talks with NTP have gone nowhere. “Fundamentally for Research In Motion, settlement has never been an option,” he said. “Until they (NTP) change their tactics, it remains not an option. So we have to plan our life understanding that we go ahead with the workaround, that we incur the cost of the workaround. It's far less than any settlement cost.”

Mr. Balsillie noted that the US Patent Office and Trademark has rejected all NTP's patents, although those decisions could still be appealed to a U.S. court. “These patents are absolutely, categorically going away,” Mr. Balsillie said. He said RIM has held ongoing discussions with NTP, but the patent company has refused to negotiate a global settlement...
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RIM settles with NTP for US$612 million

Post by millergd » 03 Mar 2006 17:45

See the news at CNET.

I wonder if NTP will indeed ever see a penny of payments, or if RIM will finagle its way out of it once the U.S. Patent Office revokes the NTP patents.

~millergd~

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Re: RIM settles with NTP for US$612 million

Post by uhoh » 03 Mar 2006 19:16

millergd wrote: I wonder if NTP will indeed ever see a penny of payments, or if RIM will finagle its way out of it once the U.S. Patent Office revokes the NTP patents.

~millergd~
Interesting. I never considered that as a possibility. This whole patent-troll thing makes me nauseous.
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Post by beaverlodge » 04 Mar 2006 09:10

RIM's patent settlement is $612.5 million

Much of the settlement will be going to a widow in Chicago who stands to collect 33% of it and the money we are told is headed to family scholarships.

A RIM executive understandably said this cheque was a hard one to write.

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Post by Bylo Selhi » 01 May 2006 16:50

RIM targeted by new suit
Visto Corp., a private California-based seller of wireless software and service to phone companies, is suing Research in Motion Ltd. for patent infringement less than two months after the Canadian company settled a similar lawsuit with NTP Inc...
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Post by kcowan » 01 May 2006 20:39

Bylo Selhi wrote:RIM targeted by new suit
Visto Corp., a private California-based seller of wireless software and service to phone companies, is suing Research in Motion Ltd. for patent infringement less than two months after the Canadian company settled a similar lawsuit with NTP Inc...
Welcome to the world of US litigation. Now that RIM has settled once, they are a sitting duck for other speculative lawsuits. This will cause investor jitters for the foreseeable future.

I understand why RIM settled but this is the downside of doing that.
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RIM Research in Motion

Post by jackstraw » 04 Jul 2006 17:29

I just did a basic analysis of the year to Feb'05, year to Feb'06 and a quarter to May'06.

Gross margins were 53%, 55% and 55%. Not much improvement for a 65% increase in sales.
Net margins 15%, 18% and 17%. Not much improvement even over fixed costs.
Book Value per share $10.47, $10.75 and $11.25. So only $0.78 cents of earnings were added to the Balance Sheet over the last 5 quarters..
Diluted EPS were $1.09, $1.96 and $.068. So $2.64 should have been added to the Balance Sheet over that 5 quarter period.
Price to Book at period end $6.20, $6.60 and $6.00. Pretty outrageous for a ROE of only 20% that is NOT reinvested, but spent on buying back shares to cancell the cost of options exercised.
Number of shares O/S 189,484,915 , 186,001,765 , and 190,781,957. So there has been no decrease in the number of shares o/s.

Conclusion: In the last 5 quarters $1.86 (2.64-0.78) was the cost of options exercised. This is almost one year's worth of earnings. The EPS are overstated by about 3.5 times.

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Post by adrian2 » 04 Jul 2006 21:56

From the previous page:
Before starting a stock specific thread, please search on name and/or ticker to see if one exists. If so, add to the existing thread.
Thus you would find my past experiences with this stock! :evil:

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Post by yielder » 04 Jul 2006 22:46

adrian2 wrote:From the previous page:
Before starting a stock specific thread, please search on name and/or ticker to see if one exists. If so, add to the existing thread.
Thus you would find my past experiences with this stock! :evil:
I hear the housekeeping maid sailor here is pretty good at tidying up. :lol:

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Research in Motion (RIM)

Post by pitz » 28 Jun 2007 18:45

How much potential is really left at this company? I mean, this stock makes even Google look undervalued.

Unlike Nortel back in 2000, its much easier to short this one if it gets out of hand in the overall indicies, as there are stock futures that are available, that you could short in relation to your index holdings that hold RIMM.

But when to pull the trigger and sell futures? Anyone? Will this thing be the next Nortel in the Canadian TSX index?

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Post by uhoh » 28 Jun 2007 22:56

profit of $1.20 doesn't seem too shabby. Aren't they going in to China now?

disclosure - don't have a blackberry - used to - loved it - would love one again :)
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