Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Justise »

adrian2 wrote:
Webber22 wrote:Does anyone who why this stock has fallen around 10% lately ?
I don't own BPF, but I have Sir Royalty, which is in the same space. SRV.UN was trading 7-10 days ago in the $9 range, yesterday it closed at $8, today it's down another 6...8%. My holdings are relatively minimal, so I did not try to find out more.

There seems to be no reason for the restaurant royalty trusts to drop in prices other than the taxation starting in 2011 which was know to all investors years back. For BPF, there are 45,700 shares changed hands in one trade for $12.20 at 9.35 am. It seems that some one is trying to short the stock. No sweat, this trust is foundamentally sound and I am expecting the distribution to increase in 2012 by about 10%. May be management will do another NCIB this year if the price is around this level as it is accretive and the debt level is very low.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Webber22 »

A stink bid made it through at $10.30 :thumbsup:
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by investme »

Maybe a dumb question, but.....I heard somewhere that when you buy a franchise you have to pay royalties, but these royalties are only applicable for a term (ie 20 years). I assume BPF gets all it revenue from royalties, correct? If so, do the restaurants have a contract like this, where in 20 years, they pay no more royalties, thus cutting revenue from BPF.un?

Or are the royalties indefinite for boston pizza?
What about other funds, like A&W (AW.un), Pizza pizza (PZA.un)

I'm hoping someone has a definitive yes or no answer for this, otherwise I will take a closer look....

Cheers
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Justise »

investme wrote:Maybe a dumb question, but.....I heard somewhere that when you buy a franchise you have to pay royalties, but these royalties are only applicable for a term (ie 20 years). I assume BPF gets all it revenue from royalties, correct? If so, do the restaurants have a contract like this, where in 20 years, they pay no more royalties, thus cutting revenue from BPF.un?

Or are the royalties indefinite for boston pizza?

BPF is collecting royalties for 99 years and there is 90+ years left. This is much longer than the reserve life of all oil companies and all mineral companies. There is no capital expenditure, just collecting royalties base on 4% of sales.The yield is much higher and the 'reserve' life is much longer for BPF.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by grant »

Webber22 wrote:Does anyone who why this stock has fallen around 10% lately ?
You'd have to ask sellers why they are selling. I can think of plenty of good reasons, but the only change which seems recent is economic sentiment is turning down... and that's a direct link to flat/declining BP sales.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by grant »

investme wrote:Maybe a dumb question, but.....I heard somewhere that when you buy a franchise you have to pay royalties, but these royalties are only applicable for a term (ie 20 years). I assume BPF gets all it revenue from royalties, correct? If so, do the restaurants have a contract like this, where in 20 years, they pay no more royalties, thus cutting revenue from BPF.un?
Restaurants must sign a new franchise agreement at the expiry of their current agreement, otherwise they cannot keep using the trademarks.

BPI (the lessee of the trademarks) collects 7% royalty from the store, and kicks back 4% to BPF.

BPI also gains warrants in BPF (i.e., dilutes it) for every new restaurant opened.
Justise wrote:BPF is collecting royalties for 99 years and there is 90+ years left. This is much longer than the reserve life of all oil companies and all mineral companies. There is no capital expenditure, just collecting royalties base on 4% of sales.The yield is much higher and the 'reserve' life is much longer for BPF.
BPF owns the trademarks. They can collect royalties on them in perpetuity. The current lease does expire in 90 years, but there is no reason not to expect a new lease on the same terms to be re-signed when that happens..
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Justise »

grant wrote:
investme wrote:Maybe a dumb question, but.....I heard somewhere that when you buy a franchise you have to pay royalties, but these royalties are only applicable for a term (ie 20 years). I assume BPF gets all it revenue from royalties, correct? If so, do the restaurants have a contract like this, where in 20 years, they pay no more royalties, thus cutting revenue from BPF.un?
Restaurants must sign a new franchise agreement at the expiry of their current agreement, otherwise they cannot keep using the trademarks.

BPI (the lessee of the trademarks) collects 7% royalty from the store, and kicks back 4% to BPF.

BPI also gains warrants in BPF (i.e., dilutes it) for every new restaurant opened.
Justise wrote:BPF is collecting royalties for 99 years and there is 90+ years left. This is much longer than the reserve life of all oil companies and all mineral companies. There is no capital expenditure, just collecting royalties base on 4% of sales.The yield is much higher and the 'reserve' life is much longer for BPF.
BPF owns the trademarks. They can collect royalties on them in perpetuity. The current lease does expire in 90 years, but there is no reason not to expect a new lease on the same terms to be re-signed when that happens..

My recent post upthread said of my expectation of 10% increase in dividend for BPF in 2012. Surprise! The increase comes much earlier than I expected. The Q2 reports with the heading as
Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund Declares 9.5% Increase to Monthly Cash Distributions and Announces Second Quarter Results
Positive Same Store Sales Growth of 5.8% in Q2 Leads to Higher Monthly Distribution Amount


The early increase in distribution is because of management confidence that 2012 will be better.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Webber22 »

Thanks Justise, I added to my holdings after that bit of good news. I don't trade a lot of low volume stocks like this, and after watching it trade I figured out that the price swings are due to the low volume.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Webber22 wrote:Thanks Justise, I added to my holdings after that bit of good news. I don't trade a lot of low volume stocks like this, and after watching it trade I figured out that the price swings are due to the low volume.

I expect another dividend increase next year around this time i.e. after Q2 2012 report for around 8% dividend increase. The last increase in distribution is the 14th time that the monthly distribution level has been increased since BPF's IPO in 2002 and that is a very impressive record.

It is interesting to note that BPF's same store sales growth of 5.8% for Q2 beats Tim Hortons's 3.3%.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by grant »

Justise wrote:It is interesting to note that BPF's same store sales growth of 5.8% for Q2 beats Tim Hortons's 3.3%.
Not very comparable since Tim Horton's opens so many new stores, they are much more cannibalistic than Boston Pizza. From an investment comparison, you'd need to look at Tim H's total sales, gross margins, etc. etc. whereas SSSG is about the only metric that matters to BPF holders.

BTW good call on the dividend increase, it seems pretty obvious in hind sight, since they ended their menu specials and were basically set to recover from their drops in 2008/2009.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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grant wrote:
Justise wrote:It is interesting to note that BPF's same store sales growth of 5.8% for Q2 beats Tim Hortons's 3.3%.
Not very comparable since Tim Horton's opens so many new stores, they are much more cannibalistic than Boston Pizza. From an investment comparison, you'd need to look at Tim H's total sales, gross margins, etc. etc. whereas SSSG is about the only metric that matters to BPF holders.

BTW good call on the dividend increase, it seems pretty obvious in hind sight, since they ended their menu specials and were basically set to recover from their drops in 2008/2009.

Bringing in Keg's report (here also for comparision):

VANCOUVER - The Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX:KEG.UN) posted net income of $2.5 million in the second quarter on slightly higher profits from Keg restaurants in the royalty pool.

The steak house restaurant chain said the results compared to $4.2 million a year ago.

Gross sales by restaurants in the royalty pool were $112.4 million, rising from $111.2 million.

Same-store sales, a benchmark for the retail industry that measures performance of locations open for at least a year, rose 1.8 per cent in Canada and 3.8 per cent in the United States.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SSSG is pretty much the metric to see how a business is doing.
For Q2 results SSSG for Canadian operations are: BPF 5.8%, Keg 1.8%, Tim's around <3%.

I looked into Tim's investment metrics in the first 3 yrs. of listing and concluded that Tim was over valued because of too much hype and plubicity. The always-fresh theme and business theme were changed and I had no interest in Tim since because SSSGs were mostly lower than those of BPF not to mention the yield and the P/E comparision.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Spidey »

Anyone following this one anymore? Any thoughts regarding current investment potential? The numbers look pretty good but it doesn't seem to generate much interest or coverage. Will they be converting to a corp and how will that affect the investment?
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Spidey wrote:Anyone following this one anymore? Any thoughts regarding current investment potential? The numbers look pretty good but it doesn't seem to generate much interest or coverage. Will they be converting to a corp and how will that affect the investment?
I sold mine in keeping with the theme that households that are overly-indebted might not be going to this restaurant as much in the future. Actually, compared to valuations in other sectors (ie: oil and gas, gold, etc.), the P/E multiple of this business wasn't/isn't all that attractive.

But is it likely to have a 10-20 year return better than holding government bonds, absolutely.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by ThinkDividends »

pitz wrote: I sold mine in keeping with the theme that households that are overly-indebted might not be going to this restaurant as much in the future. Actually, compared to valuations in other sectors (ie: oil and gas, gold, etc.), the P/E multiple of this business wasn't/isn't all that attractive.
You're not buying a business here, you are buying a royalty, so naturally the P/E should be really high.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by pitz »

ThinkDividends wrote: You're not buying a business here, you are buying a royalty, so naturally the P/E should be really high.
I don't really understand; a stock cannot sustainably pay a dividend stream exceeding its earnings over the long term, royalty or not. The "earnings" for this company are the royalty streams, minus admin expenses, taxes, and depreciation of the capital used to purchase the royalty stream.

The royalty nature (ie: not operational) part of this business makes the cash flows relatively safe but the rate of growth in those royalty streams certainly cannot sustainably be above the rate of economic growth.

I'll probably end up repurchasing it though at some point in the future.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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“I sold mine in keeping with the theme that households that are overly-indebted might not be going to this restaurant as much in the future. Actually, compared to valuations in other sectors (ie: oil and gas, gold, etc.), the P/E multiple of this business wasn't/isn't all that attractive.”

“The royalty nature (ie: not operational) part of this business makes the cash flows relatively safe but the rate of growth in those royalty streams certainly cannot sustainably be above the rate of economic growth.”



Pitz, I am very surprise this time by your confusion on investment factors. The fact that BP is a royalty means there is no capex which most if not all non-royalty companies need to invest part of their earnings and therefore cannot pay out earnings. Hence the earning yield for BP is about where the payout will be and that works out to be about 8.6% yield at current payout at around recent average prices.

Now, Canada is highly a resource base economy which has increasingly been influenced more and more by the emerging economies which have very high growth and therefore, on average, over a 10 period and with immigration, Canada’s economy is expected to grow about 3%.

Base on a broad thinking that generally speaking, other than sunset and sunrise sectors, a company’s earning growth is closely correlated to the economic growth of the economy. Therefore base on this thinking, BP is expected to get a return of 8.6% dividend yield + 3% stock appreciation (from economic growth or SSSG) on average over the next 10 years. And that gives 11.6% return annually on average uncompounded.

As you acknowledged, the cash flows are relatively safe as a royalty stock and with 11.6% total return (past total returns since IPO even higher) as compare to 10 yr bond yields of hovering around 2% and change, or other stocks, I don’t understand your investment view point here. Is 11.6% total return that unattractive?
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Before making any forward projections for the consumer sector, consider this:

Image

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/conte ... ehold-debt
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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patriot1 wrote:Before making any forward projections for the consumer sector, consider this:

Image

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/conte ... ehold-debt
Yeah, thats what worries me. And, quite frankly, there's signs out there that every US restaurant chain imagineable will, sooner or later, beat a path to serve the Canadian market, as they've saturated all the remaining growth prospects in the United States.

BP's can do just fine in the current environment, but it wouldn't take a lot to sprinkle Canada with Applebees', Chipotle Mexican Grills, TGI Fridays', etc. keeping SSSG flat or even marginally down.

One thing I've noticed about the Alberta oilpatch and western Canada more broadly is that salaries are down dramatically. And this was the clientele for restaurants in a lot of those communities. Guys who were pulling $120-$130k as welders are now working for $50-$60k/year. That means, combined with high truck payments, etc., -- a few less nights at BP's with $200 bar and food tabs.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Wow, Pitz, with the beautiful chart showing 2011 household debt going higher and your cases of lower wages in western Canada, BP pulled in 5.8% SSSG in Q2 i.e. to say that the SSSG is getting better going in the opposite direction of your concerns.

RBC CEO was on BNN today with Howard Green, the concern of the household debts was raised. It was explained that the rise in house hold debts is mainly due to house mortgages due of course to higher house prices. BP pulling in higher SSSG of 5.8% in Q2 definitely show no concern or impact to spending, at least at BP.

With very low varible mortgage rate, some may have use the house to get low loan rates to invest in relatively stable dividend paying stocks to profit in 'carry trade' in interest differential without the currency risk as in currency carry trade. BP did borrowed at low rate to buyback its own shares for 2 years and the actions gave double gains to BP shareholders. And that is the beauty for a royalty with little to no debts to start with.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Justise »

patriot1 wrote:Before making any forward projections for the consumer sector, consider this:

Image

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/conte ... ehold-debt

Patriot 1, looking at the chart, as explained by RBC CEO, the debts are mainly house mortgage debts. If that is the case, the high property prices in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, and Toronto will give higher debts to disposable income for Canada. For the US the graph came down after the housing burst in 2006/7 meaning new house buyers are having less debts because of much lower house prices. For many in the US with the tanking of house prices and higher unemployment it is a case of double whammy. Canada, OTOH, is having house price appreciation and lower unemployment as compare to the US is in much better financial footings for the households.

Furthermore, your mention of consumer sector, consumption in the purchase of durable merchandises and non-durables should be separated from the consumption of food.

Make sense, Patriot 1, Pitz?
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Justise wrote: Canada, OTOH, is having house price appreciation and lower unemployment as compare to the US is in much better financial footings for the households
Still don't get it ? House price appreciation is not income and house sales cannot be a collective source of income to households, because households sell houses to each other. The gains of the seller are at the expense of the buyer.

Interest on debt owed by the household sector has to be paid from income earned by the household sector. The household sector cannot service its debt by selling houses to each other.

What is the basic message of those graphs?
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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patriot1 wrote:
Justise wrote: Canada, OTOH, is having house price appreciation and lower unemployment as compare to the US is in much better financial footings for the households
Still don't get it ? House price appreciation is not income and house sales cannot be a collective source of income to households, because households sell houses to each other. The gains of the seller are at the expense of the buyer.

Interest on debt owed by the household sector has to be paid from income earned by the household sector. The household sector cannot service its debt by selling houses to each other.

What is the basic message of those graphs?

Patriot 1, (&Pitz),

You obviously don’t see the big macro picture.

The big problem facing the US (and the UK, Spain etc.) is the tanking in housing prices creating a negative wealth effect and many with their market house values at less than their mortgages and with many in defaults which in turn caused the mortgagors, mostly the banks to be in big troubles. The substantial drop in house prices leading to those in default having their houses in forced sales (and thereby also lower the prices of those houses not in default) at much lower prices with much lower mortgage rates is effectively lowering the national debt to disposable income. And the graph for the US reflects that in the drop from 2006/7. Again, all in all there are negative wealth effects for many home owners including those owning the US financial stocks.

Canada, OTOH, with house price appreciation, there are the higher net worth effect. Some own more than one house. Also, the smart owners will tend to re-obtain a mortgage to the maximum allowable because if the mortgage rates were to rise, the houses with the lower mortgage rates attach can fetch higher prices than those without cheaper mortgage rates. Obviously, higher mortgage amounts due to higher house prices (including new buyers) mean higher debts to disposable income. And the graph for Canada tends higher as reflected in the graph. House owners can always tap the higher net worth from the house if there is a need for those who bought houses much cheaper before. Again, all in all there are feel rich effects. Remember also because of this, our Canadian banks are not cannibalized like those in US and therefore, the Canadian bank stock owners in Canada are by and large again generally having the feel rich effect. Any wonder BPF, EAT (Prime Restaurant), the Keg, Tim Hortons to name a few are having positive SSSG just as the graph for Canada shoot even higher?
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

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Justise wrote: Patriot 1, (&Pitz),
You obviously don’t see the big macro picture.
I do see the big 'macro picture', and that is, these restaurants, as well as other consumer-oriented businesses, are going to be under dual headwinds, not only from increasing foreign competition (ie: the Paneras, the TGI Friday's, etc. setting up shop in Canada), but also from a domestic contraction in credit.

Most of your arguments that housing appreciation can replace income, that our economy is so much better, etc., really fall under the category of the housing bubble (and fantasy to a lesser extent....).
Any wonder BPF, EAT (Prime Restaurant), the Keg, Tim Hortons to name a few are having positive SSSG just as the graph for Canada shoot even higher?
The problem with this is that when the Canadian RE bubble collapses and transfers homeowners' previously held equity to the banks and their shareholders -- there are comparatively few bank shareholders compared to the general population. 70% of Canadians own houses. I reckon far less than even 10% own bank stock directly, and certainly, the amount that own it in any significant, non-trivial amounts, is less than 5% of the population.

Sure, gold, silver, mining may very well do well in a dollar devaluation scenario, but there are no mines in Calgary/Edmonton, or most centres in which BP's operates.

Basically, I sold because I thought I saw better value elsewhere. The stock/trust gave me roughly a 50% return when the TSX was flat or down over the same interval. Outperformance, mathematically, cannot be perpetual, especially in a commoditized industry like restaurants.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Justise »

“Most of your arguments that housing appreciation can replace income, that our economy is so much better, etc., really fall under the category of the housing bubble (and fantasy to a lesser extent....).”


My arguments are not housing appreciation can replace income as both you and Patriot1 interpreted. That is why I said you both obviously do not see the big macro picture. And obviously you both couldn’t see the money track. I explained the meaning of the 2 graphs. Even as our debts to disposable income are higher than the US’s, we are much better off financially as again explained up-thread. The household debts are higher but the net worths are higher too. But what matters are good debts or bad debts, disposable income and the net-worth or ‘reserve’ of the households, the employment front, and the economic growth and the national debts to GDP. I trust that I don’t have to explain any of the above.

Now back to the question of rising debts to disposable income, RBC CEO has not expressed concern on this for the banks because it is mostly mortgage related. So now, it is the money track that is of concern. The key to this is interest rate, increase in mortgage rate of 1 to 2 % is manageable according to him and that sounds reasonable. And the US Fed has said that the Fed will maintain the low rate till 2013 and Canada obviously is thinking of resonating to that. Therefore, it reasonable to think that given the present problems in both the US and Europe, interest rates will remain low to 2015 conservatively thinking.

Now, as I explained up-thread, Canada on average will have economic growth of 3% for the next 10 yr because our economy being mostly resource base is more and more geared to the emerging markets which have much higher growths. Therefore, with 3% growth, unemployment and economic growth are key factors besides interest rates in housing price movements. I personally do not see any significant housing price decline in the foreseeable future.

Some years back, I asked a Chartered Account in Vancouver doing tax returns for my friend the very pertaining question on housing costs in Vancouver. The question – Lepage (from memory) reported housing costs to house hold income (meaning pre-tax income) in Vancouver is 65%, how is it possible and is it true because after paying income tax, there is almost no money left for food? His answer is the figure is from the horse’s mouth, so it must be true. It is possible because there is a lot of underground economy.


Base on the above, I can still see some 11% total returns for BPF for at least the next 5 yrs vs. miserable bond yields as the alternative with much higher risks.
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Re: Boston Pizza Income Fund(Symbol-BPF.UN)

Post by Justise »

pitz wrote: Basically, I sold because I thought I saw better value elsewhere. The stock/trust gave me roughly a 50% return when the TSX was flat or down over the same interval. Outperformance, mathematically, cannot be perpetual, especially in a commoditized industry like restaurants.

BPF reported today Q3 SSSG of 6.1% is another outperformance in the restaurent sector despite the headwind of higher debts to household income that both you and Patriot1 fear.

For past performances as compare to dividend index fund XDV for 1 yr, 3 yr and 5 yr see below:


1 yr chart comparing BPF to XDV see:

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php? ... symbol=XDV

BPF gaining 8.5% Vs 3.8% for XDV


3 yr chart comparing BPF to XDV see:

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php? ... symbol=XDV

BPF gaining 120% Vs 34% for XDV



5 yr chart comparing BPF to XDV see:

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php? ... symbol=XDV%

BPF gaining 58% Vs 19% for XDV giving 3 times the capital gain plus much higher yields for all the 5 yrs.


With the Q3 6.1% SSSG, I am pretty sure there is going to be about 10% dividend increase next year and very likely outperformance for another 5 years.
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