Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

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Hammerer
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Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by Hammerer »

To start it off, I think it's too late to get in on most crypto-currency speculation.

Bitcoin is long disabled by high transaction fees. The others are in a frenzy based on that. The total addressable market is much less than the current useful value.

The most stable and useful crypto-currencies are those that do are not subject to high levels of speculation at this point.

There are lots of complaints about 'fiat' and how cryptocurrencies don't have their problems, but 95%+ of my liquid wealth is in equities, so I'm also short on fiat and long on things that... do stuff.

Mostly in VTI and VCN, with a small chunk of other stocks. The most speculative being:
- Ebay (they break down trade barriers)
- Starbucks (if they can transition to food, wine and a safe 3rd space, they'll do exceptionally well)
- Hydro One (I may back out of this... they have pricing power... I think?)
- Telus (because VCN doesn't cover telecoms well)
- Nutrien (They'll benefit from consolidation in the industry and every living thing needs potassium)
- TransCanada Pipelines (Keystone XL and potential removal of crummy 'toll' system)
ig17
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Re: Your NOT old, crusty and conservative choices

Post by ig17 »

Hammerer wrote: 27 Jan 2018 00:32 Mostly in VTI and VCN, with a small chunk of other stocks. The most speculative being:
- Ebay (they break down trade barriers)
- Starbucks (if they can transition to food, wine and a safe 3rd space, they'll do exceptionally well)
- Hydro One (I may back out of this... they have pricing power... I think?)
- Telus (because VCN doesn't cover telecoms well)
- Nutrien (They'll benefit from consolidation in the industry and every living thing needs potassium)
- TransCanada Pipelines (Keystone XL and potential removal of crummy 'toll' system)
You must be old, crusty and conservative if you think that these positions are speculative. :D

I don't see a hint of speculation on that list.
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ghariton
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Re: Your NOT old, crusty and conservative choices

Post by ghariton »

My play money is currently mostly in PSCH on the American markets. It's an ETF of small-cap biotech and health care stocks.

The underlying bet is that, as the population ages, the market for this stuff will grow faster than the market over all. Focusing on small caps is a way to get at companies that have a good idea. The good idea will generally not pan out, but in the few cases that it does, the gains to investors should be impressive.

I bought in mid 2017 and so far it's up about 45% (negligible dividends though).

Definitely not for a core portfolio.

George
The juice is worth the squeeze
JaydoubleU
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Re: Your NOT old, crusty and conservative choices

Post by JaydoubleU »

Not sure if this measures up to the high stakes risk of bitcoin, but my biggest risk / reward roll is on DIV (Diversified Royalty).

I always found it strange back in 2014 that it was called "diversifed" when they only had one royalty. But through 2015 and 2016, they divested Franworks, acquired rights to Sutton and Mr. Lube (two brands I see everywhere), and then capped it off with a big deal for Air Miles last year. Meanwhile, there was some sort of malfeasance scandal with a former CEO--(John Bennett, when the company was known as Bennett Environmental)--that smelled very rotten; when the stock hit a low of 2.09 you had to ask yourself, "do you feel lucky? Well, do you, PUNK!"

I guess I did (or just dumb), because I started buying more shares--I was following certain fund managers who also appeared to be acquiring shares. The Bennett case was settled, the company name was changed to Diversified Royalty, and then the Sutton and Mr. Lube deals were announced. followed by Air Miles. The stock went from 2.30 to 3.70 from August to December last year, a huge gain relative to my crusty conservative stocks. It has since fallen back a bit, but IMHO, management appears to be smart and patient, and it's a matter of time until DIV announces another major deal and raises the dividend. Then we're off to the moon!

Not for the faint of heart, these royalty stocks. Alaris is a good example of a great company fallen on harder times. Another is Grenville Strategic Royalty, the mere mention of which causes vague feelings of nausea . . .
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maximum 1% of liquid assets

Post by Irwin »

Monarques Gold Corporation. (TSX-V: MQR) is an emerging gold producer focused on pursuing growth through its large portfolio of high-quality projects in the Abitibi mining camp in Quebec, Canada.

MQR Capital Structure
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CORPORATE PRESENTATION JANUARY 2018
http://monarquesgoldfiles.com/documents ... PDF-EN.pdf

If nothing else it's a beauty name.
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hboy43
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by hboy43 »

Hi:

I don't go looking for this stuff, I mostly wait for them to come to me by following the news. Most recent example would be HCG back in what was it April? Don't really need to follow exotic stuff, plenty of regular companies regularly shooting themselves in the foot.

Actually, not entirely true. I did start a position in PEY, but this is just a continuation of a 3 year old idea: oil and gas. Some in this area has already paid off (ECA, HSE a bit), others still waiting on (BTE).

Right now mostly harvesting from ideas of 2 and 3 years ago. Regular companies that shot themselves in the foot: TECK.B, BBD.B. OK , maybe Bomber is not a regular company :roll: .

hboy54
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deaddog
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by deaddog »

Firstly it is only high risk if you continue to hold stocks that are dropping. The portfolio manager controls the risk by removing stocks that don't perform as planned.

I follow the rules set out by Nicholas Darvas.

Look for stocks making all time highs on increasing volume.
Ignore todays blue chips.
preserve your capital with a stop loss.
"And the days that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, well, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
randomwalker
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by randomwalker »

deaddog wrote: 27 Jan 2018 11:05 Firstly it is only high risk if you continue to hold stocks that are dropping. The portfolio manager controls the risk by removing stocks that don't perform as planned.

I follow the rules set out by Nicholas Darvas.

Look for stocks making all time highs on increasing volume.
Ignore todays blue chips.
preserve your capital with a stop loss.
Are you thinking inside the box or out :D ?
Hammerer
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Re: Your NOT old, crusty and conservative choices

Post by Hammerer »

ig17 wrote: 27 Jan 2018 00:47
You must be old, crusty and conservative if you think that these positions are speculative. :D

I don't see a hint of speculation on that list.
You're right, I don't feel that way either.

Late 2015 - early 2016 was when I last felt like I made really speculative investments, buying beat-up companies that do stuff: I bought Potash (breaking even), Resolute Forest Products (I took a slight loss, should have held on...), US Steel (should have held on longer), Teck Resources (~5x'd my money) and Navistar (should have held on longer).

Maybe GE soon? Just waiting for the dividend cut.
nisser
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by nisser »

I'm currently following several designed quant factor systems which has reluctantly made me buy:
-forestry stocks (WEF, CFR, Interfor)
-airline stocks (AC + transat)
-automative ones (LNR, MG, MRE)

It went totally against all my previous experience. I never buy at 52 week highs nor would I even dabble in these given what's going on with NAFTA uncertainties but the system was backtested 20 years and this isn't the first time there's been drama on the horizon and things went well.
What I find fascinating is that even though I put about 30-40% of weight on value factors, it still almost never picks stocks that are "beat down". It taught me a valueable lesson that "beat down" stocks are beat down for a reason.

Other than AC, all the trades are going on my favour but I certainly can't wait till I rebalance and hopefully switch these out!

As a second speculative buy, I'm currently holding Disney & CVS. From what I've seen in the short-term, most companies do very poorly after major acquisitions so we'll see what happens here.
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adrian2
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Re: Your NOT old, crusty and conservative choices

Post by adrian2 »

Hammerer wrote: 27 Jan 2018 13:05 Maybe GE soon? Just waiting for the dividend cut.
Their dividend was cut in half a few months back.
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DenisD
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by DenisD »

nisser wrote: 27 Jan 2018 13:14I certainly can't wait till I rebalance and hopefully switch these out!
I've been in the same position many times. :wink:
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deaddog
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by deaddog »

randomwalker wrote: 27 Jan 2018 11:55

Are you thinking inside the box or out :D ?
All decisions are made outside the box.
Not much thinking involved.:)
"And the days that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, well, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
tmo72
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by tmo72 »

I have small position in XIV, an ETN that's inverse the of short term VIX futures. With volatility low, it has had spectacular returns (120% 1 year, 500% 5 years). But a large spike in the VIX could also lead to spectacular losses. How it works: https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/05/ ... -xiv-work/
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by thedude99 »

JD.com - Walmart has a 12% stake in these guys. They are online retailers - see Alibaba and Amazon light (for now)

Pick any weed stock lol. For me I have HVST

Softbank - they have a big stake in Uber which yes loses money hand over fist but that doesn't seem to matter nowadays

All of these are approx 1% of my portfolio. Basically looking for a ten bagger to make it worth my while
tmo72
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by tmo72 »

tmo72 wrote: 28 Jan 2018 18:37 I have small position in XIV, an ETN that's inverse the of short term VIX futures. With volatility low, it has had spectacular returns (120% 1 year, 500% 5 years). But a large spike in the VIX could also lead to spectacular losses. How it works: https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/05/ ... -xiv-work/
Speaking of spectacular losses... with the historic spike in VIX yesterday, XIV was crushed. NAV went from $110+ to about $4 after hours. The ETN will be closed. https://www.credit-suisse.com/pwp/cc/do ... v_etns.pdf

Thankfully for me, I had a stop loss and sold it last week.
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Shakespeare
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Re: Your high-risk but high-potential return ideas

Post by Shakespeare »

Six sigma events aren't.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
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