What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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scomac
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

Post by scomac »

Thegipper wrote: 25 Jan 2018 12:46
schmuck wrote: 25 Jan 2018 11:14 Dumped Newell Brands (NWL) as soon as I saw the news this morning of the 2nd big quarterly miss in a row. All this after Bruce Campbell (the one with the mustache) had it as a top pick on Market Call a few days ago. 18% loss for me :( Thankfully, I only had 200 shares.
Me to. I sold 279 shares. I have not had much success using value investing strategies. I always seem to find the value traps.
It doesn't make a lot of sense to run for the exits when everyone else is doing the same thing. The company still has revenues and is still profitable. The issue seems to be the some sort of strategic reorganization is needed which I take as code for selling off some assets that aren't particularly aligned with their core businesses. I'm going to stand down until the excitement has passed and decide then once more information is out and a plan has been presented.

Perhaps the most important thing this action demonstrates to me is just how toppy the market is when anything viewed as negative in the next year is met with such a rush for the exits. NWL has now dropped by more then 50% from its 52 week high.
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

Post by deaddog »

scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:03 It doesn't make a lot of sense to run for the exits when everyone else is doing the same thing. The company still has revenues and is still profitable. The issue seems to be the some sort of strategic reorganization is needed which I take as code for selling off some assets that aren't particularly aligned with their core businesses. I'm going to stand down until the excitement has passed and decide then once more information is out and a plan has been presented.

Perhaps the most important thing this action demonstrates to me is just how toppy the market is when anything viewed as negative in the next year is met with such a rush for the exits. NWL has now dropped by more then 50% from its 52 week high.
When would you head for the exit? I can't see any good reason to hold this stock. It now has to gain over 100% to get back to its high.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

Post by schmuck »

scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:03
It doesn't make a lot of sense to run for the exits when everyone else is doing the same thing. The company still has revenues and is still profitable. The issue seems to be the some sort of strategic reorganization is needed which I take as code for selling off some assets that aren't particularly aligned with their core businesses.
Maybe, but my main objective this morning was not to waste time with a lot of pondering and to get out before the knife hit bottom. Even if it was to recover eventually, I'd rather be off the hook than biting my nails and worrying the next waterfall. While loosing money sucks, my holdings were not substantial, and I've probably spent more time checking out the company after selling it than I did before buying it :oops:

With around a hundred different products under their belt, many of which are produced in aging factories, selling off some assets may not be as easy as it sounds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newell_Brands
So, no regrets.
Last edited by schmuck on 25 Jan 2018 19:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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deaddog wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:24
scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:03 It doesn't make a lot of sense to run for the exits when everyone else is doing the same thing. The company still has revenues and is still profitable. The issue seems to be the some sort of strategic reorganization is needed which I take as code for selling off some assets that aren't particularly aligned with their core businesses. I'm going to stand down until the excitement has passed and decide then once more information is out and a plan has been presented.

Perhaps the most important thing this action demonstrates to me is just how toppy the market is when anything viewed as negative in the next year is met with such a rush for the exits. NWL has now dropped by more then 50% from its 52 week high.
When would you head for the exit? I can't see any good reason to hold this stock. It now has to gain over 100% to get back to its high.
I'm off about 20% so by that measure I should be taking my leave. I just don't like hitting the sell button when there's a panic. Lots of potential to get whipsawed. Maybe sell when there's a bid that comes into the stock when a buyer of volume appears. Could happen anytime.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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Have recently sold a bunch of Canadian holdings. CGX, CHE, H&R, REI, REF and ALA

Those are all interest rate sensitive and in general I have had enough with Canada. Clearly the business environment is hostile and will be for another six years as the CCP has no credible opposition to Trudeau. All proceeds have gone into US equities and it is quite clear others are doing the same with continued underperformance in TSX. Perhaps getting in at high levels however going forward for the next decade+ it will be the right move to be underinvested in Canada. Sadly I still have large chunks of legacy holdings and the tax impact would be extremely painful to liquidate everything
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 19:01

I'm off about 20% so by that measure I should be taking my leave. I just don't like hitting the sell button when there's a panic. Lots of potential to get whipsawed. Maybe sell when there's a bid that comes into the stock when a buyer of volume appears. Could happen anytime.
I agree a big move on that kind of volume might be the end of the selling. A move below todays low would be a red flag.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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deaddog wrote: 25 Jan 2018 19:31
scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 19:01

I'm off about 20% so by that measure I should be taking my leave. I just don't like hitting the sell button when there's a panic. Lots of potential to get whipsawed. Maybe sell when there's a bid that comes into the stock when a buyer of volume appears. Could happen anytime.
I agree a big move on that kind of volume might be the end of the selling. A move below todays low would be a red flag.
No doubt. Another 20% drop and it's likely that we aren't getting the whole story. I still remember the autumn of 2000 and the triple waterfall that Nortel endured. Sadly this isn't my first circus catching a falling knife...won't be my last either... :roll:
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

Post by Thegipper »

schmuck wrote: 25 Jan 2018 18:58
scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:03
It doesn't make a lot of sense to run for the exits when everyone else is doing the same thing. The company still has revenues and is still profitable. The issue seems to be the some sort of strategic reorganization is needed which I take as code for selling off some assets that aren't particularly aligned with their core businesses.
Maybe, but my main objective this morning was not to waste time with a lot of pondering and to get out before the knife hit bottom. Even if it was to recover eventually, I'd rather be off the hook than biting my nails and worrying the next waterfall. While loosing money sucks, my holdings were not substantial, and I've probably spent more time checking out the company after selling it than I did before buying it :oops:

With around a hundred different products under their belt, many of which are produced in aging factories, selling off some assets may not be as easy as it sounds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newell_Brands
So, no regrets.
i am with you on this. I recall people sticking with stocks that started to decline and they didn't run for the exits. They owned things like Nortel, Blackberry, Valeant, Home Capital, Sun Microsystems. There are a lot of investment options so I don't hang around to see how these stories play out.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 19:01
deaddog wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:24
scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:03 It doesn't make a lot of sense to run for the exits when everyone else is doing the same thing. The company still has revenues and is still profitable. The issue seems to be the some sort of strategic reorganization is needed which I take as code for selling off some assets that aren't particularly aligned with their core businesses. I'm going to stand down until the excitement has passed and decide then once more information is out and a plan has been presented.

Perhaps the most important thing this action demonstrates to me is just how toppy the market is when anything viewed as negative in the next year is met with such a rush for the exits. NWL has now dropped by more then 50% from its 52 week high.
When would you head for the exit? I can't see any good reason to hold this stock. It now has to gain over 100% to get back to its high.
I'm off about 20% so by that measure I should be taking my leave. I just don't like hitting the sell button when there's a panic. Lots of potential to get whipsawed. Maybe sell when there's a bid that comes into the stock when a buyer of volume appears. Could happen anytime.
Be patient and ye shall be rewarded. A bid on volume came into NWL this morning so I will book my loss. One day made about $1000 difference!

I read a couple of research reports this morning from the sell side and they were pretty negative and yet those shills couldn't bring themselves to call it a sell. Wouldn't want to lose access to management or any potential underwriting revenue! FWIW, I do not believe this to be in the ilk of some of the other companies mentioned upthread. They've just bit off more than they can chew and are kind of lost at the moment.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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Have been following NWL for some time.

FWIW not one of the 15 analysts currently covering NWL class it as a moderate or strong sell ;-)
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Thinking about buying a house and looking at taking the cash out of my portfolio to pay for it.

A lot of selling would be involved, and just debating with myself whether to trim winners, sell the underperformers and take losses, or a bit of everything. The trouble with selling the winners (such as AQN, RY) is that the portfolio is then left overweighted with the underperformers (such as ENB, ALA).

It's a balancing act!
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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beachcomber wrote: 26 Jan 2018 13:25 Have been following NWL for some time.

FWIW not one of the 15 analysts currently covering NWL class it as a moderate or strong sell ;-)
I don't pay much attention to analysts. They seldom come out with sell recommendations. I do note that NWL was the top pick by RBC back in July. By there very nature bank analysts are in a conflict of interest situation.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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JaydoubleU wrote: 27 Jan 2018 09:26 Thinking about buying a house and looking at taking the cash out of my portfolio to pay for it.

A lot of selling would be involved, and just debating with myself whether to trim winners, sell the underperformers and take losses, or a bit of everything. The trouble with selling the winners (such as AQN, RY) is that the portfolio is then left overweighted with the underperformers (such as ENB, ALA).

It's a balancing act!
I would do both as it is the most tax efficient way of doing things. You'll get rid of the losers, but still should have a portion of your winners to let run.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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I would do both as it is the most tax efficient way of doing things. You'll get rid of the losers, but still should have a portion of your winners to let run.
Yeah, I'm leaning that way, as well as other strategies: getting rid of highly indebted companies, low or no dividend growth companies, etc.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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JaydoubleU wrote: 27 Jan 2018 09:26 Thinking about buying a house and looking at taking the cash out of my portfolio to pay for it.

A lot of selling would be involved, and just debating with myself whether to trim winners, sell the underperformers and take losses, or a bit of everything. The trouble with selling the winners (such as AQN, RY) is that the portfolio is then left overweighted with the underperformers (such as ENB, ALA).

It's a balancing act!
You don't want to be left with all winners either, todays laggards could be tomorrow's winners and you winners of today could be vastly overpriced ready to mean revert. You make your best guesses while trying to keep adherence to your IPS via sector weightings etc. cause that's all you can do. You can borrow to buy back whatever stocks you wanted to keep. I hate individual stock investing with a growing passion.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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todays laggards could be tomorrow's winners and your winners of today could be vastly overpriced ready to mean revert
Indeed. Which is why I will probably end up trimming a wide range of them, but focusing on the overweighted positions.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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JaydoubleU wrote: 27 Jan 2018 09:26 Thinking about buying a house and looking at taking the cash out of my portfolio to pay for it.

A lot of selling would be involved, and just debating with myself whether to trim winners, sell the underperformers and take losses, or a bit of everything.
What would you do with your portfolio if you weren't buying a house? If you wouldn't do anything, just sell a fraction (equal to house value/portfolio value) of each position.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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If you wouldn't do anything, just sell a fraction (equal to house value/portfolio value) of each position.
Something like that. But I will probably sell more of the overweight positions, possibly eliminate one altogether (RNW), and leave a few alone because they are very small positions. When I get done, I'd like to end up with a sort of ideal portfolio; it isn't quite ideal right now, even though I wouldn't touch it if I weren't buying a house. Does that make sense? It is quite overweight utilities and pipelines, and I could use this opportunity to fix this.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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I don't think there's such a thing as an ideal portfolio. In fact, the search for such may well prove to be counter-productive.

I used to think that if I only has a bit of this or that or room for this or that or I had gotten into this or that when it was cheaper it would have been ideal. Over the years I've come to discover that what is going to get the job done is whatever comes along that is an opportunity at the time. There's no point losing sleep over what might have been or could have been. Oh sure, there are lessons to be learned from missteps, but I don't think obsessing over it is a good idea. Often times sticking with what you've got is going to be just as effective as trying to improve upon what you've already done. Like golf, investing is not a game of perfect.

The say that the enemy of a good plan is the desire for a perfect plan. The longer you're at this the more your realize that there is less that you really need to do! We all need to keep that in mind.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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scomac wrote: 28 Jan 2018 09:37 I don't think there's such a thing as an ideal portfolio. In fact, the search for such may well prove to be counter-productive.
My Ideal Portfolio would hold only stocks that had long term charts that moved from bottom left to top right without a lot of fluctuation.

In order to achieve that I have to sell the ones that don't.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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deaddog wrote: 28 Jan 2018 11:00
scomac wrote: 28 Jan 2018 09:37 I don't think there's such a thing as an ideal portfolio. In fact, the search for such may well prove to be counter-productive.
My Ideal Portfolio would hold only stocks that had long term charts that moved from bottom left to top right without a lot of fluctuation.

In order to achieve that I have to sell the ones that don't.
So you're advocating that we should be investing in the total market equity portfolio. The trend is bottom left to top right without a lot of fluctuation.
:wink:
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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scomac wrote: 28 Jan 2018 11:39
So you're advocating that we should be investing in the total market equity portfolio. The trend is bottom left to top right without a lot of fluctuation.
:wink:

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Something like that. Althought I don't like to see it make lower lows.

More like PBH, DOL and SIS.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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scomac wrote: 28 Jan 2018 09:37Often times sticking with what you've got is going to be just as effective as trying to improve upon what you've already done.
Reminds me of those studies showing that stocks people sell outperform their replacements.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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DenisD wrote: 28 Jan 2018 13:05
scomac wrote: 28 Jan 2018 09:37Often times sticking with what you've got is going to be just as effective as trying to improve upon what you've already done.
Reminds me of those studies showing that stocks people sell outperform their replacements.
Been there, done that myself in a number of instances over the years. There is no way to get it ideal or perfect and I do not sweat this all stuff any more. There will always be surprises to the upside or downside. Money managers with a lot more resources have their share of missteps, or bets, that went the opposite direction.

If I was Jaydoubleu, I would take some overweight profits on some and eliminate entire positions on others, and especially some losers to offset the gains from profit taking. The ones to keep may be those 80% that fall in the middle of the bell curve.
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2018)

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JaydoubleU wrote: 28 Jan 2018 07:01
If you wouldn't do anything, just sell a fraction (equal to house value/portfolio value) of each position.
Something like that. But I will probably sell more of the overweight positions, possibly eliminate one altogether (RNW), and leave a few alone because they are very small positions. When I get done, I'd like to end up with a sort of ideal portfolio; it isn't quite ideal right now, even though I wouldn't touch it if I weren't buying a house. Does that make sense? It is quite overweight utilities and pipelines, and I could use this opportunity to fix this.
This is the approach I took a few years back when I did the same - it was an opportunity to rebalance and eliminate things that you really don't want anyway, and I ended up with a much better (albeit smaller) portfolio than I had before.
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