2018 Predictions Contest

Discuss your favourite picks, broker, and trading or investment style.

What is your mood for 2018?

Poll ended at 30 Jan 2018 10:40

I am optimistic
14
33%
I am pessimistic
10
23%
Stay the course baby. No surprises
19
44%
 
Total votes: 43

nile
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by nile »

S&P 500 2300
TSX 16000
GOLD 1500
OIL 60
CAD 78
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

kcowan wrote: 24 Dec 2017 10:40 2018 Predictions Contest
The deadline is January 29 at 9:30 EST and the first results will be published after market close in January.
Deadline has come and gone. Topic (temporarily?) locked to allow entries to be captured.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

We have 20 contestants this year and the results will be posted here:

Latest results

There are already some changes noted that will be updated at month end.
Please advise of any keying errors. Thanks.
Keith
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by Shurville »

S&P 3050
TSX 17850
Gold 1550
Oil 75
Can$ 78
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by biker »

S&P 2750
TSX 18000
Gold 1625
OIL 80
Can$ 81.50
Live like you are dying but invest like you are immortal.

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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kukucanuck »

Keith

Would very much appreciate correction to my handle to "Kukucanuck" in the spreadsheet.

Thanks

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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Will do.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Please review: File:2018Forecast.jpg

- "DOW" should be changed to "S&P"
- Peculiar_Investor is ranked #1, but the accuracy is 70.6183%.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

The January results are now posted above. Kukucanuck is the early leader. A number of errors were corrected. Please report any others you may notice.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Current leader is nortel'd.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Although I'm leading in 2 categories (Gold and Oil), I'm in second place.

The error increase from 1st to 2nd place is a difference of 2%, but the next five entries (2nd through 7th places) are clustered around 6% error. It's a tight race.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

kukucanuck is the current leader.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Sensei is the leader for April.

http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:2018Forecast.jpg
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

I'm leading in gold, an exact match. :) (A first for me.)
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by poedin »

:P Someone else's Au algorithm/crystal ball evoked the 13s ...
19s 4 S&P_D yikes! output shoudabeen 26s
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

No change in leadership for May.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by Sensei »

No change in leadership for May.
Gratified to hear it, but many more months to go...
Cheers

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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Sensei maintains his iron grip on the leadership again.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

No change, Sensei again.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by Mordko »

Four months in a row. What it does show (apart from Sensei's precognition) is how low the volatility has been in pretty much everything. Quite remarkable, given the "trade war", etc, etc..
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

I don't think we are seeing the impact of the Trump tariffs yet. The $12b subsidy for farmers is the inevitable result of a centrally planned economy.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by Mordko »

kcowan wrote: 01 Aug 2018 10:34 I don't think we are seeing the impact of the Trump tariffs yet. The $12b subsidy for farmers is the inevitable result of a centrally planned economy.
US economy is driven by the likes of Amazon, Apple, Walmart, biomedical companies and Wall Street. The $12b is nothing in the context of US economy. The rumours of "central planning" may have been exaggerated, which might be why the market isn't panicking. Not yet anyway, but things can change.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Congrats to kumquat for an exact match on gold.

Interesting, as that's the low end of the gold predictions range. The other categories have room for movement.
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest

Post by Sensei »

LadyGeek wrote: 31 Aug 2018 20:25 Congrats to kumquat for an exact match on gold.

Interesting, as that's the low end of the gold predictions range. The other categories have room for movement.
Surprises the heck out of me too. So far, 1300 gold is my worst prediction. However, if Trump keeps rattling everyone's cage, it might pick up a bit. I'm also a bit suprised that the Canadian dollar hasn't followed oil as it has in the past.
Cheers

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