2018 Predictions Contest
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
S&P 500 2300
TSX 16000
GOLD 1500
OIL 60
CAD 78
TSX 16000
GOLD 1500
OIL 60
CAD 78
- Peculiar_Investor
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Deadline has come and gone. Topic (temporarily?) locked to allow entries to be captured.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.
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Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
We have 20 contestants this year and the results will be posted here:
Latest results
There are already some changes noted that will be updated at month end.
Please advise of any keying errors. Thanks.
Keith
Latest results
There are already some changes noted that will be updated at month end.
Please advise of any keying errors. Thanks.
Keith
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
S&P 3050
TSX 17850
Gold 1550
Oil 75
Can$ 78
TSX 17850
Gold 1550
Oil 75
Can$ 78
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
S&P 2750
TSX 18000
Gold 1625
OIL 80
Can$ 81.50
TSX 18000
Gold 1625
OIL 80
Can$ 81.50
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"Men do not quit playing because they grow old ; they grow old because they quit playing" Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Men do not quit playing because they grow old ; they grow old because they quit playing" Oliver Wendell Holmes
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Keith
Would very much appreciate correction to my handle to "Kukucanuck" in the spreadsheet.
Thanks
Kukucanuck
Would very much appreciate correction to my handle to "Kukucanuck" in the spreadsheet.
Thanks
Kukucanuck
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Please review: File:2018Forecast.jpg
- "DOW" should be changed to "S&P"
- Peculiar_Investor is ranked #1, but the accuracy is 70.6183%.
- "DOW" should be changed to "S&P"
- Peculiar_Investor is ranked #1, but the accuracy is 70.6183%.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
The January results are now posted above. Kukucanuck is the early leader. A number of errors were corrected. Please report any others you may notice.
For the fun of it...Keith
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Although I'm leading in 2 categories (Gold and Oil), I'm in second place.
The error increase from 1st to 2nd place is a difference of 2%, but the next five entries (2nd through 7th places) are clustered around 6% error. It's a tight race.
The error increase from 1st to 2nd place is a difference of 2%, but the next five entries (2nd through 7th places) are clustered around 6% error. It's a tight race.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
For the fun of it...Keith
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
I'm leading in gold, an exact match. (A first for me.)
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Someone else's Au algorithm/crystal ball evoked the 13s ...
19s 4 S&P_D yikes! output shoudabeen 26s
19s 4 S&P_D yikes! output shoudabeen 26s
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Gratified to hear it, but many more months to go...No change in leadership for May.
Cheers
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Sensei maintains his iron grip on the leadership again.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Four months in a row. What it does show (apart from Sensei's precognition) is how low the volatility has been in pretty much everything. Quite remarkable, given the "trade war", etc, etc..
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
I don't think we are seeing the impact of the Trump tariffs yet. The $12b subsidy for farmers is the inevitable result of a centrally planned economy.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
US economy is driven by the likes of Amazon, Apple, Walmart, biomedical companies and Wall Street. The $12b is nothing in the context of US economy. The rumours of "central planning" may have been exaggerated, which might be why the market isn't panicking. Not yet anyway, but things can change.
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
For the fun of it...Keith
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Congrats to kumquat for an exact match on gold.
Interesting, as that's the low end of the gold predictions range. The other categories have room for movement.
Interesting, as that's the low end of the gold predictions range. The other categories have room for movement.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2018 Predictions Contest
Surprises the heck out of me too. So far, 1300 gold is my worst prediction. However, if Trump keeps rattling everyone's cage, it might pick up a bit. I'm also a bit suprised that the Canadian dollar hasn't followed oil as it has in the past.
Cheers
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar