Are we too old, crusty and conservative

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retireat50
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Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by retireat50 » 09 Dec 2017 14:40

Been a member for quite awhile and most of the dedicated threads or the WHAT ARE YOU BUYING super threads for the most part discuss the good old blue chips, REIT's, food royalty trusts, etc. This is indeed where my portfolio lies in addition to the typical ETF's. Do these threads indicate the risk tolerance of this forum being conservative? Where is any discussion of the weed stocks that have in many cases been ten baggers? What about Dollarama that has been a darling for many years? Nary a mention of these

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SoninlawofGus
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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by SoninlawofGus » 09 Dec 2017 14:56

I put $2900 into Dollarama exactly five years ago. Up 408%, not counting any dividends. Made us more than 10K to date, even after selling half of it a year ago. It is, arguably, almost a sin stock -- we've profited off of a lot of cheap stuff that will wind up in landfills.

BRIAN5000
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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by BRIAN5000 » 09 Dec 2017 15:11

I'm thinking about adding a line in my IPS no individual stocks in registered accounts :? :lol:
“Sometimes you are going to sell early and wish you would’ve held on, other times you will hold on a
little bit longer and wish you would’ve sold early - this is just part of the game.” - Frank Zorilla via Abnormal Returns

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ghariton
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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by ghariton » 09 Dec 2017 17:23

BRIAN5000 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 15:11
I'm thinking about adding a line in my IPS no individual stocks in registered accounts :? :lol:
... except, presumably, when executing Norbert's gambit.

It may be that people here are conservative and crusty, or it may be that we have learned some lessons -- for most of us, the hard way. I still have a gambler's instinct, but I have learned to confine its ravages to my play money. For example, I'm having a good time with two ETFs, PSCT and PSCH. These are small cap technology and small cap health services in the U.S. Pretty wild roller coaster ride (for me) and certainly confirms that I wouldn't want to do this with serious money.

George
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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by OhGreatGuru » 09 Dec 2017 17:34

Isn't Warren Buffet "old, crusty, and conservative"?

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by Shakespeare » 09 Dec 2017 17:42

I suspect many of us are in or approaching drawdown and neither need nor want to shoot for the moon.
“A wise man should be prepared to abandon his baggage at any time.” -- R.A. Heinlein, The Door Into Summer.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by hboy43 » 09 Dec 2017 17:52

Hi:

Old at 55, maybe? Crusty, don't know. Conservative at allocation of 120% equity in individual stocks, I don't think many would see it that way.

I do fine without greater fool holdings. When even bank shares trade in such a wide range in a year, there is plenty of opportunity to do better than average with individual stocks of companies that provide long term useful products and services. No need to do anything but boring companies to land well into the top half of all investors.

Hboy43

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by BRIAN5000 » 09 Dec 2017 18:09

ghariton wrote:
09 Dec 2017 17:23
BRIAN5000 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 15:11
I'm thinking about adding a line in my IPS no individual stocks in registered accounts :? :lol:
... except, presumably, when executing Norbert's gambit.
George
Gall darn it all now I may have to add two lines no gambit in registered accounts.

I belong to an investment club not sure what the average age is but I may be one of the youngest at 60. They most want to talk about individual stocks, some are trading options, some just retired and now starting to look at making investing their new past time and running their own finances. The club is making a hypothetical $100,000 portfolio it has some good ideas but with a 55/45 AA and 19ish equity positions I don't know.
“Sometimes you are going to sell early and wish you would’ve held on, other times you will hold on a
little bit longer and wish you would’ve sold early - this is just part of the game.” - Frank Zorilla via Abnormal Returns

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by ig17 » 09 Dec 2017 18:32

retireat50 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 14:40
Where is any discussion of the weed stocks that have in many cases been ten baggers?
In equally many cases, they went to zero.

Finance theory teaches students that risk and return have a positive relationship: you need to take a higher risk in order to earn a higher return. Empiric academic research has shown that this is not really true. Equity markets do NOT compensate you for betting on high risk stocks. This surprising finding is known as low-volatility paradox or low-volatility anomaly. OP, if you are not familiar with it, I recommend that you do some reading on this subject.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by kcowan » 09 Dec 2017 19:12

I admit I am old. I have become conservative although I still hold LULU! But I am not crusty.

I echo the sentiment that I have shot the moon and had more 10-baggers than flops. But I have no need for that anymore. I draw down my 2% and try to give more money away. I have increased my giving by 30% this year.

But I agree that if you're are looking to shoot the moon, you should probably find another group. You can find kindred spirits here but you will get unwanted advice as well.
For the fun of it...Keith

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by deaddog » 09 Dec 2017 20:55

retireat50 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 14:40
Been a member for quite awhile and most of the dedicated threads or the WHAT ARE YOU BUYING super threads for the most part discuss the good old blue chips, REIT's, food royalty trusts, etc. This is indeed where my portfolio lies in addition to the typical ETF's. Do these threads indicate the risk tolerance of this forum being conservative? Where is any discussion of the weed stocks that have in many cases been ten baggers? What about Dollarama that has been a darling for many years? Nary a mention of these
I think it is more that the members here are modest. You don't see a lot of bragging about big gains.

The forum is more about financial planning than stock picking. If anything members seem reluctant to reveal their holdings.

FWIW I'm old, crusty and very conservative. 100% equity portfolio of less than 20 stocks with stops in place to make sure I keep the majority of my capital.
Most of our so-called reasoning consists of finding arguments for going on believing as we already do.( J.H. Robinson)

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by Koogie » 09 Dec 2017 21:38

Old, crusty and conservative ? Not at all.. I'm just in my forties... :)

Now get off my lawn, hippy.

:P
Buy very little, sell even less.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by 2 yen » 10 Dec 2017 15:41

No. We have learned the hard lessons of ignoring the power of time. Time is THE single most important thing in an investor's bag of tricks. Buy the boring winners, sit back and watch the results come in. And sleep at night.

2 yen

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by deaddog » 10 Dec 2017 16:19

2 yen wrote:
10 Dec 2017 15:41
No. We have learned the hard lessons of ignoring the power of time. Time is THE single most important thing in an investor's bag of tricks. Buy the boring winners, sit back and watch the results come in. And sleep at night.

2 yen
It depends where you are in the accumulation / withdrawal cycle. I thought that Time was important when I retired in 2000. I learned watching your portfolio drop day after day wasn't the most pleasant experience. I changed strategies from Time to timing and sat out the 2008 downturn. Who knows how long the next market decline will take to recover.

It is easy to sleep at night in a bull market.
Most of our so-called reasoning consists of finding arguments for going on believing as we already do.( J.H. Robinson)

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by Arby » 10 Dec 2017 20:25

retireat50 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 14:40
Where is any discussion of the weed stocks that have in many cases been ten baggers?
To get a 10 bagger, it's not necessary to make a high risk bet on a weed stock with no track record and no earnings. I'm a fairly conservative dividend investor, and I currently have two 10 baggers - CCL Industries and Waste Connections (formerly Progressive Waste Solutions). These didn't become 10 baggers overnight. I've held them for 5-10 years. But both stocks have paid an increasing dividend during the time I've held them.

retireat50
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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by retireat50 » 23 Dec 2017 02:31

OK so i guess what % of one's portfolio should be assigned to 'speculative' stocks. I say 1% however in practice I've been far below that as with a portfolio of say 1Million that would mean $10,000 and I find it hard to pull the trigger on investing that kind of money on a longshot or a basket of those. I feel like the entire Weed sector was a massive missed opportunity in a brand new sector. 10K investment for example could have easily turned into 100K gain whereas if the 10K was lost it wouldn't be much of a loss. I guess I need to be less risk averse and swing for the fences

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by deaddog » 23 Dec 2017 12:41

retireat50 wrote:
23 Dec 2017 02:31
OK so i guess what % of one's portfolio should be assigned to 'speculative' stocks. I say 1% however in practice I've been far below that as with a portfolio of say 1Million that would mean $10,000 and I find it hard to pull the trigger on investing that kind of money on a longshot or a basket of those. I feel like the entire Weed sector was a massive missed opportunity in a brand new sector. 10K investment for example could have easily turned into 100K gain whereas if the 10K was lost it wouldn't be much of a loss. I guess I need to be less risk averse and swing for the fences
All stocks are speculative. There is no guarantee that you will get your money back.

Better to think in terms of percentage rather than in dollars. Keep in mind that on a volatile day the market can move 1% or more.

If you invest $10,000 in a speculative stock, you don't have to lose the whole amount. There is no law that says you can't sell with a small loss.


It is not uncommon for me to risk 1% of my portfolio on a single trade. I define my risk as the amount I will lose if I have to sell at a predetermined loss. There are times when a gap down causes me to exceed that percentage.

It is not too late to get into the weed sector. The sector is still making new highs and stocks that become 10 baggers have to continue to make new highs.
Most of our so-called reasoning consists of finding arguments for going on believing as we already do.( J.H. Robinson)

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by randomwalker » 23 Dec 2017 15:30

I remember in 1999 Warren Buffett was more or less being called "too old , crusty and conservative." It was said the "old man" didn't understand "tech" and internet stocks. It was said valuation didn't matter and the stocks should have "price to eyeball" or "price to click" ratios. We all know how that ended.

Bloomberg News, Kristine Owram, December 15, 2017

‘I don't believe in Warren Buffett’: Maverick manager makes 21% gains chasing market extremes
Fidelity’s Mark Schmehl flouts Buffett,
thinks valuation is overrated and says most other rules of investing are ‘total baloney’

http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... -on-crypto

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by randomwalker » 23 Dec 2017 15:35

randomwalker wrote:
23 Dec 2017 15:30
I remember in 1999 Warren Buffett was more or less being called "too old , crusty and conservative." It was said the "old man" didn't understand "tech" and internet stocks. It was said valuation didn't matter and the stocks should have "price to eyeball" or "price to click" ratios. We all know how that ended.

Bloomberg News, Kristine Owram, December 15, 2017

‘I don't believe in Warren Buffett’: Maverick manager makes 21% gains chasing market extremes
Fidelity’s Mark Schmehl flouts Buffett,
thinks valuation is overrated and says most other rules of investing are ‘total baloney’

http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... -on-crypto
All that being said there are many ways to make and lose money in the public markets you have to find one that's right for you. As is oft said "bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by kcowan » 23 Dec 2017 17:51

Yup maybe it is time to seek refuge!
For the fun of it...Keith

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by patriot1 » 23 Dec 2017 18:16

deaddog wrote:
23 Dec 2017 12:41
All stocks are speculative. There is no guarantee that you will get your money back.
You are conflating risk-taking and speculation. They are two different things.

Any non-guaranteed investment has risk. You may get less - or more - than your expected return. For the non-speculator, the price paid is based on the expected return which is based on fundamentals, i.e. earnings.

Speculation means making an investment with the expectation that you will get your return simply by selling it for a higher price, without this price being justified by fundamentals.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by ghariton » 23 Dec 2017 22:26

patriot1 wrote:
23 Dec 2017 18:16
Speculation means making an investment with the expectation that you will get your return simply by selling it for a higher price, without this price being justified by fundamentals.
Interesting definition. According to it, would a lottery ticjet be an investment or a speculation? After all, I don't expect to sell it to someone else for a higher price.

My own definition would depend on the probability of a loss. The higher the probabiliy, the more specyulative the instrument. There is no bright line, neither objective nor subjective. What is speculative varies with the individual, and his or her tolerance for risk.

George
The plural of anecdote is NOT data.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by OhGreatGuru » 23 Dec 2017 22:33

retireat50 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 14:40
... Where is any discussion of the weed stocks that have in many cases been ten baggers? ...
IMHO anyone chasing "ten baggers" is a gambler, not an investor.

- Sign me old, crusty, & conservative

PS - and if you only put 1% of your portfolio into speculative stocks, it's just play money. You're doing it for the thrill of the game, not for any serious investment purpose.

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by deaddog » 23 Dec 2017 23:19

OhGreatGuru wrote:
23 Dec 2017 22:33
retireat50 wrote:
09 Dec 2017 14:40
... Where is any discussion of the weed stocks that have in many cases been ten baggers? ...
IMHO anyone chasing "ten baggers" is a gambler, not an investor.

- Sign me old, crusty, & conservative

PS - and if you only put 1% of your portfolio into speculative stocks, it's just play money. You're doing it for the thrill of the game, not for any serious investment purpose.
A gamble is an all or nothing bet. You usually stand to lose or win your bet. In some cases you stand to win a lot more than you bet, think lottery or slot machine, but if you lose you forfeit your bet.

An investment would have a reasonable expectation of making a profit and if not, a reasonable expectation of recovering some of your investment.

The question I ask before making any investment, speculation or gamble is how much do I stand to lose? If I stand to lose it all it's a gamble and I'll probably pass.
Most of our so-called reasoning consists of finding arguments for going on believing as we already do.( J.H. Robinson)

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Re: Are we too old, crusty and conservative

Post by LAJ » 24 Dec 2017 09:41

I feel old, I'm grumpy if not crusty and I'm becoming more conservative with my investments. Recently pulled 400K out of the market to work on building a GIC ladder. I no longer need to chase income.
Hakuna Matata

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