Disruption

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Thegipper
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Disruption

Post by Thegipper »

I am am thinking that this should be on one's checklist before making a stock purchase. Formidable moats are being dismantled left and right. I own Alpabet, Apple and Amazon because they are leaders in causing disruption. It's getting difficult to find traditional business models that aren't facing big and new challenges in the ditigal age. Just an observation . It has become a part of my investment process.
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Re: Disruption

Post by AltaRed »

Have you been watching too much The Disruptors? Not saying the concept does not have merit but all the big ones today will (and do) have competitors, some of which could displace them in sectors or categories. As was discussed about Amazon with Whole Foods, that may, or may not, be a smart move. FWIW, I am not as enamoured with Amazon as some seem to be. I find better targeted sources for some of my online purchsases, e.g. Costco, Wayfair, Pool Supplies Canada, etc.
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Re: Disruption

Post by Koogie »

AltaRed wrote: 22 Jun 2017 16:18 FWIW, I am not as enamoured with Amazon as some seem to be. I find better targeted sources for some of my online purchsases
+1 I find with Amazon.ca that unless you are buying something that is particularly on deep discount that their prices are not that great and their delivery standards often suck. If you don't know what you are doing (ie: have a very good handle on competitive prices) they will screw you into the ground.
Thegipper wrote: 22 Jun 2017 15:34 I am am thinking that this should be on one's checklist before making a stock purchase. Formidable moats are being dismantled left and right. I own Alpabet, Apple and Amazon because they are leaders in causing disruption
Counterpoint: Pets.com
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Re: Disruption

Post by steves »

better yet... Buggy Whips Unlimited.
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Thegipper
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Re: Disruption

Post by Thegipper »

It is far more then disrupting retail. Transportation, communications and broadcasting, print media, financial services, manufacturing ,gambling , services, information and others sectors are facing major change because of technology. I forgot to mention that I also own FB and the last time I recall they had multi billion regular users. I figure polling firms have been out to lunch because they still rely of old technology when we are in a new age and the old doesn't dominate and influence the public like they used to do. There is so much conflicting media accounts today that we now pick what we like and discard countering sources as fake news.
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Re: Disruption

Post by kcowan »

Are you talking about 10-baggers? I think it takes more than a good idea.
- good execution
- ready access to capital
- corporate commitment to dogged pursuit of new opportunities
- lack of executive greed
- paranoia
I could go on but I am trying to illustrate some of the other factors for consideration. Maybe this is what we mean by disrupters?
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AltaRed
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Re: Disruption

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Thegipper wrote: 22 Jun 2017 20:16 It is far more then disrupting retail. Transportation, communications and broadcasting, print media, financial services, manufacturing ,gambling , services, information and others sectors are facing major change because of technology.
I think we know that but I don't think any one entity will stand out for long in any particular segment of the market. As Keith suggests, the right idea properly executed and supported by the right determination and capitalization will be able to displace those currently at the top. I don't think any one of Apple, FB, etc. is a slam dunk long term. A bad move, or a failing of corporate culture (Uber anyone?), can make the greatest vulnerable. IOW, it pays to keep one's eyes wide open. and not have blind faith. Personally, I am fascinated with the amount of 'disruption'.
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Thegipper
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Re: Disruption

Post by Thegipper »

AltaRed wrote: 22 Jun 2017 20:30
Thegipper wrote: 22 Jun 2017 20:16 It is far more then disrupting retail. Transportation, communications and broadcasting, print media, financial services, manufacturing ,gambling , services, information and others sectors are facing major change because of technology.
I think we know that but I don't think any one entity will stand out for long in any particular segment of the market. As Keith suggests, the right idea properly executed and supported by the right determination and capitalization will be able to displace those currently at the top. I don't think any one of Apple, FB, etc. is a slam dunk long term. A bad move, or a failing of corporate culture (Uber anyone?), can make the greatest vulnerable. IOW, it pays to keep one's eyes wide open. and not have blind faith. Personally, I am fascinated with the amount of 'disruption'.
Yes if these guys miss the estimates they get punished . It is difficult to guess when that will happen. Personally I think Apple is the most vulnerable . Google, Amazon and FB have a lot of runway.
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Re: Disruption

Post by long »

i'm wondering what would be the "fittest" ETF to include all those "FAANG" (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). QQQ?
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Re: Disruption

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I have a new vehicle and I was a huge sceptic of semi-autonomous driving assists until this week. They work like a charm. Maybe we really are on the verge of something big.

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Re: Disruption

Post by Shakespeare »

long wrote: 23 Jun 2017 03:02 i'm wondering what would be the "fittest" ETF to include all those "FAANG" (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). QQQ?
Personally I prefer VT.
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Re: Disruption

Post by kcowan »

2 yen wrote: 23 Jun 2017 09:13I have a new vehicle and I was a huge sceptic of semi-autonomous driving assists until this week. They work like a charm. Maybe we really are on the verge of something big.

2 yen
Yes any company that can benefit from Deep AI such as autonomous driving might be a good investment long term. Ironically, autonomous driving is already a crowded field, so is there any one entrant that can beat out the others? And create a moat at the same time? I hold Apple and TIO Networks, both of which are past their disrupters phase. I happen to think that Alphabet, Amazon and FB are all passed their disrupters phase.
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Re: Disruption

Post by 2 yen »

kcowan wrote: 23 Jun 2017 09:34
2 yen wrote: 23 Jun 2017 09:13I have a new vehicle and I was a huge sceptic of semi-autonomous driving assists until this week. They work like a charm. Maybe we really are on the verge of something big.

2 yen
Yes any company that can benefit from Deep AI such as autonomous driving might be a good investment long term. Ironically, autonomous driving is already a crowded field, so is there any one entrant that can beat out the others? And create a moat at the same time? I hold Apple and TIO Networks, both of which are past their disrupters phase. I happen to think that Alphabet, Amazon and FB are all passed their disrupters phase.
This is a really tough call. I don't own any of the companies mentioned on this thread because I'm all about dividends. That said, we are in very interesting times for those who can get the research right on these companies. I can't do that so will stick with Fortis and friends.

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Re: Disruption

Post by JaydoubleU »

I can't do that so will stick with Fortis and friends.
Even Fortis and friends face disruption from changing technology in the form of cheap wind and solar:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... -what-will

https://www.accenture.com/t20150523T024 ... uption.pdf

https://hbr.org/2017/03/how-utilities-a ... e-the-grid
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Re: Disruption

Post by Taggart »

I dunno. I always find I do better in my investing by avoiding the sirens (i.e. ultra-popular investments). This goes back to the go-go stocks of the 60's, the nifty fifty (one decision stocks) of the 70's, precious metals and collectibles etc. in the early 80's, and the tech/telecom debacle in the early 2000's. If you look at the studies done after "In Search of Excellence" and "Good To Great" books came out, you'll find you were better off just investing in a group of un-excellent companies.
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Re: Disruption

Post by 2 yen »

JaydoubleU wrote: 23 Jun 2017 09:58
I can't do that so will stick with Fortis and friends.
Even Fortis and friends face disruption from changing technology in the form of cheap wind and solar:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... -what-will

https://www.accenture.com/t20150523T024 ... uption.pdf

https://hbr.org/2017/03/how-utilities-a ... e-the-grid
True. That's why among the graphs I have set up, one is for % of renewables as a portion of the overall portfolio. It's interesting to see how companies like Enbridge are now branching out into wind.

http://www.enbridge.com/about-us/our-wo ... nergy/wind

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JaydoubleU
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Re: Disruption

Post by JaydoubleU »

And in some recent commentary, someone in senior management at Enbridge said that renewables was a pretty small part of EBITDA, but it was the fastest growing division. (can't find the link right now, sorry, but on page 25 of this investor presentation, ENB indicates where the future is headed: https://www.enbridge.com/~/media/Enb/Do ... tation.pdf)
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Re: Disruption

Post by Lazy Ninja »

I would generally consider all this disruption another argument in favour of indexing. While it certainly provides opportunities for discerning individual stock investors, I think they're outweighed by the headaches. It makes the concept of extrapolating long-term data even more troublesome. It seems like the opposite of being unable to see the forest for the trees. While many of the long-term trends seem clear enough, it's hard to see which trees might come to dominate the forest. But perhaps that's how it's always been.
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Re: Disruption

Post by kcowan »

AltaRed wrote: 22 Jun 2017 20:30
Thegipper wrote: 22 Jun 2017 20:16 It is far more then disrupting retail. Transportation, communications and broadcasting, print media, financial services, manufacturing ,gambling , services, information and others sectors are facing major change because of technology.
I think we know that but I don't think any one entity will stand out for long in any particular segment of the market. As Keith suggests, the right idea properly executed and supported by the right determination and capitalization will be able to displace those currently at the top. I don't think any one of Apple, FB, etc. is a slam dunk long term. A bad move, or a failing of corporate culture (Uber anyone?), can make the greatest vulnerable. IOW, it pays to keep one's eyes wide open. and not have blind faith. Personally, I am fascinated with the amount of 'disruption'.
Yes when you think about it, a 10-bagger needs an alignment of the stars to make it. TIO required the takeover by Paypal to put it over the 10x. So a bit of luck also helps. Sadly, the takeover price seems to be holding it back now...

Uber is one that is excluded from both Vancouver and PV so I have no direct experience. The theory is great but having a corporate account with a local taxico can be even more beneficial. So it delivers most value in other cities. Plus in PV, the cabs can be flagged down like NYC, so it would work best in remote locations during off hours.
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Re: Disruption

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JaydoubleU wrote: 23 Jun 2017 11:34 And in some recent commentary, someone in senior management at Enbridge said that renewables was a pretty small part of EBITDA, but it was the fastest growing division. (can't find the link right now, sorry, but on page 25 of this investor presentation, ENB indicates where the future is headed: https://www.enbridge.com/~/media/Enb/Do ... tation.pdf)
Kinda reminds me of BNS before it worked hard on its international footprint. Too Canadian they said. One could now make an argument that stocks like BNS provide international exposure, to a certain extent. In a parallel way, maybe just holding on to the ENB's is a good intermediary step in allowing for disruption in renewables.

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JaydoubleU
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Re: Disruption

Post by JaydoubleU »

Kinda reminds me of BNS before it worked hard on its international footprint. Too Canadian they said. One could now make an argument that stocks like BNS provide international exposure, to a certain extent. In a parallel way, maybe just holding on to the ENB's is a good intermediary step in allowing for disruption in renewables.
An interesting parallel. The banks themselves have their own disruptor in fintech. But I think the banks are big and powerful enough to be able to face these challenges, if necessary by buying them out to contain them. My sense is that Al Monaco knows more about the energy market than most, and an entity the size of Enbridge isn't going to be so easily "disrupted" out of business by a few windmills and electric cars. ENB will continue to announce new renewable projects and slowly adapt. If necessary, I can see them snapping up a pure renewable utility like NPI just to speed the process up.

Five years ago, there was next to nothing in ENB investor presentations on renewables; now it occupies a lot of space.
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Re: Disruption

Post by Shakespeare »

http://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/gwyn ... rs-196144/
There are approximately 4.5 million driving jobs in the United States: taxi-drivers, bus-drivers, delivery van drivers, long-distance truckers. That’s about four per cent of all American jobs, and the driving share of total jobs is around the same in other developed economies. It’s a safe bet that at least half of those jobs will disappear in the next ten years, and they will almost all be gone in 15 or 20.

The long-term impact of autonomous vehicles on private car ownership will be just as great. A recent KPMG survey of car-industry executives found that 59 per cent of CEOs believe that more than half of today’s car-owners will no longer want to own a car by 2025. Just summon a cheap self-driving taxi whenever you want to go somewhere.
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AltaRed
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Re: Disruption

Post by AltaRed »

I think the autonomous car ownership vision could be true in urban areas of critical mass. I don't think the same headway will be made in smaller centres (e.g. 25,000 or less) and in rural areas. There is simply not enough critical mass to set up autonomous vehicle businesses and make money at it in smaller centres AND additionally, most people in smaller centres have a significant part of their lifestyle doing 'country' things.

The visionaries are, for the most part, city urbanites will little understanding of real life outside larger centres.
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Re: Disruption

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I don't hear much from Washington, Ottawa et al about the coming labour shortage, as in telling people there just won't be enough "work" to go around ever again. I keep hearing the same old tired story about "job creation" when history tells us that productivity are inversely related. By Industrial Revolution standards 40 hours is a part-time job.

Here's 400 mortgages that might not get paid,

Driverless trucks will eliminate 400 positions: Suncor Energy
By Staff The Canadian Press
https://globalnews.ca/news/3998291/driv ... or-energy/

The rise of the useless class
Feb 24, 2017 / Yuval Noah Harari
https://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/

Labour shortage and opiods


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Re: Disruption

Post by Insomniac »

I'm a regular viewer of NHK. In Japan, they are looking forward to driver-less vehicles solving the worker shortage.
Driverless taxis could help with societal challenges

Some taxi companies are taking part in the development of automated cars as a way to deal with the problem of aging drivers and personnel shortages.

Hinomaru Kotsu is a taxi company in Tokyo working with a firm that developed the technology for the latest test. It says the average age of its drivers is nearly 60, and that about 100 of its 1,400 drivers are 70 or older.

The firm says it will have to roll back its services in the early morning hours and other time slots if the trend continues.

Kazutaka Tomita, president of Hinomaru Kotsu, says that while some taxi companies are hostile toward self-driving vehicles, the biggest concern in the industry is the worker shortage.

He says he hopes automated cars will ultimately be helpful for taxi companies.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/nhknews ... axitested/
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