What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

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jay
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by jay » 05 Jul 2017 10:24

Just exited Exchange Income Corp (TSE:EIF) at $31.37 for +6%. News just came out that Marc Cohodes, the big short behind Home Capital, is now short EIF as well. Adios and thank you!

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by westcoastfella » 17 Jul 2017 14:46

I exited my position in CVS a couple of weeks ago at $81-ish, good for a 5% gain over the past 6 months. When I got back into CVS late last year, I wasn't yet convinced that it was a long term hold and would wait and see. Its bumped up and down in the 76-83 range over that time, however I decided to exit once Amazon purchased Whole Foods. I read quite a few articles that Amazon's may have pharmacies directly in their sights, and decided I didn't want to wait and see.

I have recently re-deployed the proceeds into a combination of other existing holdings.

BRIAN5000
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by BRIAN5000 » 25 Jul 2017 12:59

Sold the Big "M" for $158.50 looking for something cheap to replace it with?
“Sometimes you are going to sell early and wish you would’ve held on, other times you will hold on a
little bit longer and wish you would’ve sold early - this is just part of the game.” - Frank Zorilla via Abnormal Returns

rich
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by rich » 25 Jul 2017 14:52

"Just exited Exchange Income Corp (TSE:EIF) at $31.37 for +6%. News just came out that Marc Cohodes, the big short behind Home Capital, is now short EIF as well. Adios and thank you!"

I also sold Exchange Income yesterday for $28.34 but with reluctance. Because the company has high Capex it tends to have poor net cash flows, even though it has grown ten fold in assets with strong dividend growth. This fact, and the fact that it is small, makes it a target for Cohodes short and distort. Three years ago I sold half my position during another short attack, the remaining position tripled leading up to the next attack.
My conclusion is that a short attack by a well-funded and clever investor sets up an irresistable negative psychology that really cannot be fought off without the help of a billionaire saviour. Next time I will sel at the first sniff.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by FinEcon » 25 Jul 2017 15:53

doom_diver wrote:
09 May 2017 11:33
Sold my shares in HCG, @$8.50

Bought in at $6.40 originally.
jay wrote:
09 May 2017 11:43
same here. Had a stink bid for two weeks that filled yesterday at $5.13. Sold half today at $8.37 and a stop loss sell order on the rest set just blow $8.
Thanks to whomever is buying!
scomac wrote:
09 May 2017 12:53
Ross Healey seems to think there is value here: http://www.bnn.ca/market-call/ross-heal ... ks~1118647

I think he's nuts, but it takes all kinds to make a market. It's nice when you can get paid for silliness... :roll:
How do you guys feel about the 60-80% upside inside of 2 months. Good thing you knew something the other party didn't
What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 25 Jul 2017 19:01

FinEcon wrote:
25 Jul 2017 15:53
doom_diver wrote:
09 May 2017 11:33
Sold my shares in HCG, @$8.50

Bought in at $6.40 originally.
jay wrote:
09 May 2017 11:43
same here. Had a stink bid for two weeks that filled yesterday at $5.13. Sold half today at $8.37 and a stop loss sell order on the rest set just blow $8.
Thanks to whomever is buying!
scomac wrote:
09 May 2017 12:53
Ross Healey seems to think there is value here: http://www.bnn.ca/market-call/ross-heal ... ks~1118647

I think he's nuts, but it takes all kinds to make a market. It's nice when you can get paid for silliness... :roll:
How do you guys feel about the 60-80% upside inside of 2 months. Good thing you knew something the other party didn't
The OSA investigation and the American shorts created a panic which caused large amounts of cash being withdrawn and creating a deposit crisis. Most of this stuff is over ad Buffett has injected a big chunk of equity. I think Healey might be right on this one. Kudos to the guys that ignored the falling knife at $6 and took a flyer.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by hboy43 » 26 Jul 2017 08:52

FinEcon wrote:
25 Jul 2017 15:53
doom_diver wrote:
09 May 2017 11:33
Sold my shares in HCG, @$8.50

Bought in at $6.40 originally.
jay wrote:
09 May 2017 11:43
same here. Had a stink bid for two weeks that filled yesterday at $5.13. Sold half today at $8.37 and a stop loss sell order on the rest set just blow $8.
Thanks to whomever is buying!
scomac wrote:
09 May 2017 12:53
Ross Healey seems to think there is value here: http://www.bnn.ca/market-call/ross-heal ... ks~1118647

I think he's nuts, but it takes all kinds to make a market. It's nice when you can get paid for silliness... :roll:
How do you guys feel about the 60-80% upside inside of 2 months. Good thing you knew something the other party didn't
I was conceptually the other party, having ACB of approximately what folks above began selling at.

I did not "know" anything more than folks above but I suspected a few things. Suspected in the sense that given the facts on the ground, and objectively dealing with them, there were reasonable chances.

On the other site, I expressed the above idea as an expected value:

40% chance of bankruptcy is 0
60% chance I recover book value of $25 = $15

EV = $15, I got in at under $7 for a normalized EV over 2. I'll take a situation like this every day, and twice on Sunday.

Nobody commented on or challenged my EV calculation. Most were quite certain HCG was headed for bankruptcy. No point in slowing down to consider other views when you know something for certain.

Hboy54

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by scomac » 27 Jul 2017 10:10

FinEcon wrote:
25 Jul 2017 15:53
doom_diver wrote:
09 May 2017 11:33
Sold my shares in HCG, @$8.50

Bought in at $6.40 originally.
jay wrote:
09 May 2017 11:43
same here. Had a stink bid for two weeks that filled yesterday at $5.13. Sold half today at $8.37 and a stop loss sell order on the rest set just blow $8.
Thanks to whomever is buying!
scomac wrote:
09 May 2017 12:53
Ross Healey seems to think there is value here: http://www.bnn.ca/market-call/ross-heal ... ks~1118647

I think he's nuts, but it takes all kinds to make a market. It's nice when you can get paid for silliness... :roll:
How do you guys feel about the 60-80% upside inside of 2 months. Good thing you knew something the other party didn't
I've been wrong before and will be again. The funny part about your comment is that so has Healey.

As to how do I feel? Water off a duck's back. You win a few, you lose a few.

I'll just slide back to enjoying life in Ogopogoland now...
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830

2 yen
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by 2 yen » 04 Aug 2017 14:17

Sold DR (Medical Facilities). The yield is sneaking up a bit too high and the earnings have lagged. Also, with the Cominar dividend cut today, felt that letting yields get too high is a mistake. Fortunately, I sold Cominar last fall.

2 yen

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by bindexit » 10 Aug 2017 16:09

Sold out of :

Sciti Trust (TSE:SIN.UN) around $8

Happily held for it's diversification, re-invested distributions (DRIPs), and ease to manage. However, I decided to sell out due to increased equity weighting (Thanks to the DRIPPING:) and arbitrarily chose this to raise cash for possible opportunities in the fall. Of note, I sold the units before the Scotia Capital transaction, which is no longer involved with SCMAI (see press released 06-13-2017 in link).

http://www.scotiamanagedcompanies.com/s ... ompany=SIN

BRIAN5000
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by BRIAN5000 » 28 Aug 2017 18:48

Had a few gold coins laying around sold them today :roll: looks like a day or two too soon :o North Korea launched another missile today.
“Sometimes you are going to sell early and wish you would’ve held on, other times you will hold on a
little bit longer and wish you would’ve sold early - this is just part of the game.” - Frank Zorilla via Abnormal Returns

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 29 Aug 2017 22:23

Pure Multi-Residential Reit. It has two condo holdings in the Houston area. The stock has been hit with the bad news with Houston. I have about 15k with this Reit. Wondering if I should bail out or has the bad news already been done? Any views would be welcomed.

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adrian2
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by adrian2 » 30 Aug 2017 11:33

Thegipper wrote:
29 Aug 2017 22:23
Pure Multi-Residential Reit. It has two condo holdings in the Houston area. The stock has been hit with the bad news with Houston. I have about 15k with this Reit. Wondering if I should bail out or has the bad news already been done?
I'm picking the latter choice.
It seems that the market today shares my view.
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” [Richard P. Feynman, Nobel prize winner]

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 30 Aug 2017 14:26

adrian2 wrote:
30 Aug 2017 11:33
Thegipper wrote:
29 Aug 2017 22:23
Pure Multi-Residential Reit. It has two condo holdings in the Houston area. The stock has been hit with the bad news with Houston. I have about 15k with this Reit. Wondering if I should bail out or has the bad news already been done?
I'm picking the latter choice.
It seems that the market today shares my view.
I think you are right. I did sell a portion of my position. I do believe these folks hold very high quality residential real estate in the right locations.

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Arby
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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Arby » 30 Aug 2017 15:10

Thegipper wrote:
29 Aug 2017 22:23
Pure Multi-Residential Reit. It has two condo holdings in the Houston area. The stock has been hit with the bad news with Houston. I have about 15k with this Reit. Wondering if I should bail out or has the bad news already been done? Any views would be welcomed.
I expect the REIT has insurance on all their properties to protect against physical damage and and business loss, so the financial risk for the REIT would be minimal.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Hammerer » 05 Sep 2017 17:45

Sold my other half of Teck-B for CAD$31.11 last week. For a few days, I regretted it, today I don't!

Bought originally for something like CAD$6.75. Sold the first half some months ago for $30, then it went up to $35, down to $20 and back up.

Not sure what to do with the proceeds...

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 06 Sep 2017 11:40

Newell Brands is under a lot of pressure today. Down 5% . Can't find any news on this decline. RBC has it as a top pick. I have a fair sized position and wondering about unloading a portion. It looks like a great company when you look at the wide range of quality brands everything from Sharpies to Rubbermaid. Any ideas as to what is happening?

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by brad911 » 06 Sep 2017 14:30

They revised guidance: http://ir.newellbrands.com/investor-rel ... fault.aspx
They were quite exposed to the recent hurricane.

Given the great quarter they announced in May this is how the market will react to any changes in guidance. GIS, HRL and many others have seen their share prices move all over the place.
Triage Investing Blog - A Source for Value & Dividend Investing and Business Fundamentals

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 09 Sep 2017 15:58

NWC had a hefty selloff yesterday. I suspect that IRMA has hit their Caribbean operations pretty hard. That is the third stock that I own which have taken on the chin because of weather disasters. Newell Brands and Pure Multi residential are the other two. Still hold all three and hope the worst is over.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by westcoastfella » 09 Sep 2017 19:55

Thegipper wrote:
09 Sep 2017 15:58
NWC had a hefty selloff yesterday. I suspect that IRMA has hit their Caribbean operations pretty hard. That is the third stock that I own which have taken on the chin because of weather disasters. Newell Brands and Pure Multi residential are the other two. Still hold all three and hope the worst is over.
They specifically cited Irma in their Q2/17 report from just a few days ago.
“Our first concern is with the losses people have suffered including the hardships now faced by over 1,000 associates who work for
us in the region,” said Edward Kennedy. “This is a human catastrophe and as an essential food retailer and major employer in the
affected communities we are totally committed to safely getting back into operation at the earliest date possible, while working
closely with local authorities to help in every way we can”.
The Company operates 12 stores in the islands directly impacted by Hurricane Irma and the damage caused by this current event
is still being assessed. The Company is aware that it’s Cost-U-Less store in St. Maarten has been significantly damaged and will not
be operational for an indeterminate length of time. The Company’s store in St. Croix, USVI is largely undamaged. The extent of
damage to the Cost-U-Less store located in St. Thomas, USVI and the nine stores and wholesale business in the British Virgin Islands
is still being determined but is expected to be less significant than St. Maarten. At this point the Company believes that its insurance
coverage will be adequate to cover expected costs and losses, including loss of business.
Otherwise, their numbers were pretty good. Assuming they are adequately insured, and that they will rebuild St Maarten, I plan to add more on Monday if the dip still holds.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by FinEcon » 10 Sep 2017 12:06

Thegipper wrote:
09 Sep 2017 15:58
NWC had a hefty selloff yesterday. I suspect that IRMA has hit their Caribbean operations pretty hard. That is the third stock that I own which have taken on the chin because of weather disasters. Newell Brands and Pure Multi residential are the other two. Still hold all three and hope the worst is over.
Your first question about Pure hurt my head, there is enough info on Pure's website to ballpark potential impacts in about 8 minutes if you are inclined to do so.

The only thing worth concern is a permanent impairment to a firm's earning power. Temporary events, glitches, setbacks, etc. are part of business and if one cannot stand the vicissitudes, one ought to forego shareholding. This goes 50 fold if we're talking about an interest in a diversified portfolio like what most people own, i.e. if you have $1M portfolio and a $20k position runs into trouble, it's not worth worrying about.

The prescription is to stop taking news (entertainment) seriously and start thinking like an investor: rational, long time horizon, etc
What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact

-- Warren Buffett

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 11 Sep 2017 11:17

FinEcon wrote:
10 Sep 2017 12:06
Thegipper wrote:
09 Sep 2017 15:58
NWC had a hefty selloff yesterday. I suspect that IRMA has hit their Caribbean operations pretty hard. That is the third stock that I own which have taken on the chin because of weather disasters. Newell Brands and Pure Multi residential are the other two. Still hold all three and hope the worst is over.
Your first question about Pure hurt my head, there is enough info on Pure's website to ballpark potential impacts in about 8 minutes if you are inclined to do so.

The only thing worth concern is a permanent impairment to a firm's earning power. Temporary events, glitches, setbacks, etc. are part of business and if one cannot stand the vicissitudes, one ought to forego shareholding. This goes 50 fold if we're talking about an interest in a diversified portfolio like what most people own, i.e. if you have $1M portfolio and a $20k position runs into trouble, it's not worth worrying about.

The prescription is to stop taking news (entertainment) seriously and start thinking like an investor: rational, long time horizon, etc
Not sure what is your point. There are reasons to buy and their are reasons to sell. If a companies outlook for earnings is seriously impaired that might be a reason to sell. It would take a little more then 8 minutes to assess Harvey's impact on Pure's operations. I would figure 15% of it's holdings are in Houston. Is that a significant factor? Yes I know that a quick read on management's part tries to put a lot of lipstick on this event. I want something more independent that that source. As stated I have retained my holdings. My analysis and sources indicate that the damage to the stock price is done and there is no sense selling at this stage. In fact the reaction to NWC was an over reaction and could be a good opportunity to buy.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by newin96 » 11 Sep 2017 12:17

I'm trimming my ABBV position, it's beyond my individual stock allocation weight...
It has had a tremendous run recently.

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by FinEcon » 13 Sep 2017 14:26

Thegipper wrote: Not sure what is your point. There are reasons to buy and their are reasons to sell. If a companies outlook for earnings is seriously impaired that might be a reason to sell. It would take a little more then 8 minutes to assess Harvey's impact on Pure's operations. I would figure 15% of it's holdings are in Houston. Is that a significant factor? Yes I know that a quick read on management's part tries to put a lot of lipstick on this event. I want something more independent that that source. As stated I have retained my holdings. My analysis and sources indicate that the damage to the stock price is done and there is no sense selling at this stage. In fact the reaction to NWC was an over reaction and could be a good opportunity to buy.
Call me old school but I guess my point was that Mr. Market should not drive a sell decision, the facts should. And in a case like this, we can ascertain the effect in short order with quick back of the envelope calculations. IMO, anyone with a position should do so to convince themselves that market noise is just that, noise.

Go to the firms website, grab the most recent presentation (May 2017). Page 28 has the portfolio summary which gives you what you need for the purposes this discussion. In a situation like this one, there's a couple of quick and dirty ways to back of the envelope impairments:

1) you could knock the FMV of the Houston properties off the portfolio value and then add back in a land value estimate. You see its less than 10% of the portfolio value and that's assuming the land is not recoverable, it's just gone forever. Since it's unlikely Houston is to become the next Atlantis, assuming land is anywhere from 25-50% of the value of the Houston properties gets you to low/mid single digits and this is assuming no insurance on the structures.

2) Or we could assume insurance on the structures but not revenue losses by knocking off x number of years worth of NOI the portfolio total value, where x is the number of years where NOI is assumed to be zero due to disaster fallout recovery time.

In any case, there are a myriad of such scenarios a person could think through and the above options carry a whole whack of assumptions, both explicit and implicit but it didn't take much work to see the effect is very minor in terms of asset impairment. Keep in mind, the above only considers impairment at the asset level, not at the financial level of the firm. There's a subtle difference bewteen the two and you want that, you will need to dig deeper into the K's and Q's and will likely spend a fair bit of time with excel. I wouldn't spend the time in a case like this because I feel reasonable assumptions cover us: mortgaged properties are typically be insured, REITs tend to utilize non recourse mortages, etc.

Well that's all for going somewhat off topic on the thread. IMO, this line of reasoning can and should be applied to any existing holdings. We're all shareholders here and inevitably firms will run into various flavours of trouble over time and a rational framework for tuning out Mr. Market is a valuable asset in an investors toolbox.

Cheers, hope this helps explain my earlier post!
What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact

-- Warren Buffett

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Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 13 Sep 2017 17:36

FinEcon wrote:
13 Sep 2017 14:26
Thegipper wrote: Not sure what is your point. There are reasons to buy and their are reasons to sell. If a companies outlook for earnings is seriously impaired that might be a reason to sell. It would take a little more then 8 minutes to assess Harvey's impact on Pure's operations. I would figure 15% of it's holdings are in Houston. Is that a significant factor? Yes I know that a quick read on management's part tries to put a lot of lipstick on this event. I want something more independent that that source. As stated I have retained my holdings. My analysis and sources indicate that the damage to the stock price is done and there is no sense selling at this stage. In fact the reaction to NWC was an over reaction and could be a good opportunity to buy.
Call me old school but I guess my point was that Mr. Market should not drive a sell decision, the facts should. And in a case like this, we can ascertain the effect in short order with quick back of the envelope calculations. IMO, anyone with a position should do so to convince themselves that market noise is just that, noise.

Go to the firms website, grab the most recent presentation (May 2017). Page 28 has the portfolio summary which gives you what you need for the purposes this discussion. In a situation like this one, there's a couple of quick and dirty ways to back of the envelope impairments:

1) you could knock the FMV of the Houston properties off the portfolio value and then add back in a land value estimate. You see its less than 10% of the portfolio value and that's assuming the land is not recoverable, it's just gone forever. Since it's unlikely Houston is to become the next Atlantis, assuming land is anywhere from 25-50% of the value of the Houston properties gets you to low/mid single digits and this is assuming no insurance on the structures.

2) Or we could assume insurance on the structures but not revenue losses by knocking off x number of years worth of NOI the portfolio total value, where x is the number of years where NOI is assumed to be zero due to disaster fallout recovery time.

In any case, there are a myriad of such scenarios a person could think through and the above options carry a whole whack of assumptions, both explicit and implicit but it didn't take much work to see the effect is very minor in terms of asset impairment. Keep in mind, the above only considers impairment at the asset level, not at the financial level of the firm. There's a subtle difference bewteen the two and you want that, you will need to dig deeper into the K's and Q's and will likely spend a fair bit of time with excel. I wouldn't spend the time in a case like this because I feel reasonable assumptions cover us: mortgaged properties are typically be insured, REITs tend to utilize non recourse mortages, etc.

Well that's all for going somewhat off topic on the thread. IMO, this line of reasoning can and should be applied to any existing holdings. We're all shareholders here and inevitably firms will run into various flavours of trouble over time and a rational framework for tuning out Mr. Market is a valuable asset in an investors toolbox.

Cheers, hope this helps explain my earlier post!
it encourages me to sell this stock. You are making a lot of assumptions with your back of the envelope calculations. I guess you have a lot of first hand dealings with dealing with insurance companies after a major flood. It's far from a slam dunk process. Business interruption is another can of worms. I live in High River and could tell you lots about the assumptions you are making.

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