AltaRed wrote: ↑13 Oct 2017 10:52
Jay, you seem to be becoming (or now are) a hardened 'deep value' investor. Am curious about your success rate in the last 2-5 years, i.e. gainers vs losers? I admit to fishing sometimes for 52 week lows on blue chips but that has mixed results as well.
Hey @Alta, not sure if I can call myself a deep value investor. For the most part, I have been building a Canadian dividend portfolio during the last 2-3 years and when I started I found it hard to buy into the highs after a 6-7 year run, so I was patient and very selective in buying only those trading near their 52 wk lows. Luckily enough, there was always something to buy and the market gave me two major opportunities in the last 2-3 years. Even today, TSE:ENB, TSE:BCE and TSE:H look cheap from that perspective (but not so much fundamentally).
However, I always keep some ammo on the side, esp. in the TFSA account, for some trading and this is where I trade in and out of cheap Canadian names (I monitor a list of 300 names in Google sheets) - ones that are close to their 52 week lows. Note that I only pick ones where the odds are in my favour (very easy to backtest assuming one's holding period is 1 year) but if I get a good spike of 10% or so, I usually exit. I was able to find cheap names like RBA, TFII, GS, ITP, DR, EIF, WPM and so far they have all delivered. I never calculated my actual success rate but I think it is close to 70%-80%.
Having said that, the above mentioned buy (Remark Holdings) was trending on Stocktwits at some point and I took note of it. Did some basic research and it looked like a value play but in the end, it was more lottery than value. I just sold half of it at $3.5 (missed the opening high this morning at $4.4).