What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
I've owned Empire, Metro, High Liner Foods and Saputo in the consumer staples sector for the last few years. As of today, no plans to sell.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
No longer any grocers on my 'interest' list but have toyed with the idea of High Liner and/or Saputo for some years. Just don't know what the EU trade deal and/or re-negotiation of NAFTA will do to either of them, especially Saputo.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
An investor has to have a balance perspective. If you go to any Urban setting in Europe (Dublin, Glasgow, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, etc) you will/would find small grocery locations located conveniently to high density commercial and residential areas.
In North America we are simply spoiled with the abundance of physical space we have and have grown accustomed to spreading out horizontally vs. vertically.
The Amazon/Whole Foods merger is significant; I'm not suggesting it isn't. But, in my opinion, it will reshape the food landscape rather then re-invent it. You will still need physical locations for groceries and goods, but a percentage will go online. Over time this may increase (today's 20-30 yr olds will become the 50-60 yr olds) but there is a bottleneck on quality that will occur. This can be seen with the rise of Farmer's markets, urban gardening and the push for some municipalities in NA to look to a more European model.
No changes to MRU or SAP in my core portfolio, but I'm not naive enough to think it won't have some impact. It will simply force them to be more competitive which is what I've witnessed owning them the past 15 years.
In North America we are simply spoiled with the abundance of physical space we have and have grown accustomed to spreading out horizontally vs. vertically.
The Amazon/Whole Foods merger is significant; I'm not suggesting it isn't. But, in my opinion, it will reshape the food landscape rather then re-invent it. You will still need physical locations for groceries and goods, but a percentage will go online. Over time this may increase (today's 20-30 yr olds will become the 50-60 yr olds) but there is a bottleneck on quality that will occur. This can be seen with the rise of Farmer's markets, urban gardening and the push for some municipalities in NA to look to a more European model.
No changes to MRU or SAP in my core portfolio, but I'm not naive enough to think it won't have some impact. It will simply force them to be more competitive which is what I've witnessed owning them the past 15 years.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
I'm wondering where the growth is in the Cdn grocery market. Empire, Loblaw, Metro, WM and throw in Costco and it looks like that is the Cdn grocery market. If market is not growing or growing at low single digits then it's a market share battle and those are usually not great for bottom line metrics. Food is a tough business at the best of times. If you get Aldi or Lidl over here than who knows what happens.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Bought a tiny amount of Cenovus (CVE-T) at 9.39.
I've held a miniscule amount (and done nothing with it) since it was spun off of Encana. I'd sold the Encana a couple of years ago, and never did anything with the Cenovus side. It's just been sitting there, terribly underwater for ages.
Today's drop seemed a little over done, relative to other CDN oil and gas companies, so somewhat rashly decided to buy a bit to average down. May hold it through this whole Conoco thing, and look to get rid of it on the other side.
Not enough money involved to cause an issue if it disappears; more of a 'points in the game - lets get the avg cost green' type thing.
I've held a miniscule amount (and done nothing with it) since it was spun off of Encana. I'd sold the Encana a couple of years ago, and never did anything with the Cenovus side. It's just been sitting there, terribly underwater for ages.
Today's drop seemed a little over done, relative to other CDN oil and gas companies, so somewhat rashly decided to buy a bit to average down. May hold it through this whole Conoco thing, and look to get rid of it on the other side.
Not enough money involved to cause an issue if it disappears; more of a 'points in the game - lets get the avg cost green' type thing.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
If you think so. My view is CVE is so highly leveraged with the 'very bad' COP purchase, it wouldn't take much loss of cashflow (like Baytex) to be in real, not perceived, crisis mode. It was announced today their CEO is retiring (or is forcibly being retired) and that may be today's market reaction.
Companies like CVE and BTE are very thin on positive cash flow at these oil prices and a move down to $40 for any period of time may result in insolvency. That is why these companies, as compared to those with good balance sheets, crash worse in such times. These have become highly speculative stocks.
Companies like CVE and BTE are very thin on positive cash flow at these oil prices and a move down to $40 for any period of time may result in insolvency. That is why these companies, as compared to those with good balance sheets, crash worse in such times. These have become highly speculative stocks.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
deleted double post sorry
Last edited by rharvey199 on 21 Jun 2017 08:50, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
i'm not sure of the debt maturity dates on CVE but BTE has a few more years before the big amounts come due. I think I read yesterday CVE was going to sell $5B of assets. Not sure if these were originally part of the COP deal or new asset sales to deliver the BS. In any case looks like CVE did the wrong deal at the wrong time and paid too much money. Wonder what recourse CVE has? Put itself up for sale (other company or private), issue equity (but it would have to be at some crazy low price, especially if they want a bought deal), sell more assets at distressed prices, or ?? Not a lot of options.AltaRed wrote: ↑20 Jun 2017 19:05 If you think so. My view is CVE is so highly leveraged with the 'very bad' COP purchase, it wouldn't take much loss of cashflow (like Baytex) to be in real, not perceived, crisis mode. It was announced today their CEO is retiring (or is forcibly being retired) and that may be today's market reaction.
Companies like CVE and BTE are very thin on positive cash flow at these oil prices and a move down to $40 for any period of time may result in insolvency. That is why these companies, as compared to those with good balance sheets, crash worse in such times. These have become highly speculative stocks.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
looking at buying Alibaba. Reported terrific numbers. Is dominant in a very large market. It offers diversification out of North America.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Bought TFI International Inc (TSE:TFII) at $26.5 last week and Exchange Income Corp (TSE:EIF) at $29.13 yesterday. I bought both mainly based on fundamentals and to gain exposure to the Industrials sector. Still watching CNR/CP/SNC but they are all expensive IMO.
Also looking to do some house cleaning among some energy names, esp. getting rid of Imperial Oil (TSE:IMO) and (TSE:ALA). I had bought them thinking they were cheap. I will be using the proceeds to top my pipelines (ENB, ENF, TRP) and perhaps start a new position in another pipeline, perhaps Inter Pipeline (TSE:IPL) as it has gone down ~15% from recent highs.
I am also interested in Fairfax Financial (TSE:FFH), mainly as a hedge but not sure how much of a hedge it is anymore. It was perfectly negatively correlated with the TSX for a long time but that seems to have changed in the last few months. Its fundamentals according to morningstar are: Forward P/E: 11.7, P/B: 1.2, P/S 1.0 and P/CF 4.2
Also looking to do some house cleaning among some energy names, esp. getting rid of Imperial Oil (TSE:IMO) and (TSE:ALA). I had bought them thinking they were cheap. I will be using the proceeds to top my pipelines (ENB, ENF, TRP) and perhaps start a new position in another pipeline, perhaps Inter Pipeline (TSE:IPL) as it has gone down ~15% from recent highs.
I am also interested in Fairfax Financial (TSE:FFH), mainly as a hedge but not sure how much of a hedge it is anymore. It was perfectly negatively correlated with the TSX for a long time but that seems to have changed in the last few months. Its fundamentals according to morningstar are: Forward P/E: 11.7, P/B: 1.2, P/S 1.0 and P/CF 4.2
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Picked up some more H&R Reit (hr.un) at $22.30. Been holding since 2009 when it was trading at $13. Back then financing the Bow in Calgary brought them to their knees. The last couple of years their office portfolio in Calgary has struggled. And with the Primaris acquisition, they are holding nine distressed Sears locations. Nice thing is that they are diversifying into industrial and residential. Yielding 6.2%
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Added to my Brookfield Renewable holding (TSE:BEP.UN) at $41.37. Stock fell 5% this morning after Brookfield Renewable Announces CDN$550 Million Equity Offering. Offering price comes to $42.5/share.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Yes and the offerings has been closed at TDDI since yesterday.
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Have bids in on Verizon and Chevron. Looking to add to my US equities.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Increased my ALA.r position @29.20
This is a longterm hold, assuming these receipts get converted to ALA and not redeemed at $31
This is a longterm hold, assuming these receipts get converted to ALA and not redeemed at $31
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Anyone making any adjustments for the sudden turn in rising interest rate expectations?
I had in mind to trim a utility and buy a financial, but I missed my chance a couple of days ago. Now it's a hold, wait and see. I still don't believe interest rate are going to rise much---too dangerous.
I had in mind to trim a utility and buy a financial, but I missed my chance a couple of days ago. Now it's a hold, wait and see. I still don't believe interest rate are going to rise much---too dangerous.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
I did that last fall on the heels of the Trump election. I sold a series of rate reset preferred shares and moved the funds into CBH which is a 10 yr. corporate bond ladder ETF. Counterintuitive I know, but my thinking was that I would benefit from the rolling over of maturing bonds into higher yielding issues as rates went up. This would result in more stable capital values than what you could expect from preferreds under similar circumstances.JaydoubleU wrote: ↑30 Jun 2017 07:45 Anyone making any adjustments for the sudden turn in rising interest rate expectations?
I had in mind to trim a utility and buy a financial, but I missed my chance a couple of days ago. Now it's a hold, wait and see. I still don't believe interest rate are going to rise much---too dangerous.
So far, it has been a wash as the income generated has off-set the drop in unit value. I haven't been tempted to do anything else with respect to interest rate sensitivity.
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
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Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
I also made a move out of higher yielding static dividends in favor of strong growers, but I still hold a whack of utilities. For the most part, I am not too, too concerned; mind you, yesterday's plunge gave me some pause for thought. Still, I don't see myself turning over the portfolio massively in response to "fear." Maybe just a little tweaking.I did that last fall on the heels of the Trump election. I sold a series of rate reset preferred shares and moved the funds into CBH which is a 10 yr. corporate bond ladder ETF. Counterintuitive I know, but my thinking was that I would benefit from the rolling over of maturing bonds into higher yielding issues as rates went up. This would result in more stable capital values than what you could expect from preferreds under similar circumstances.
So far, it has been a wash as the income generated has off-set the drop in unit value. I haven't been tempted to do anything else with respect to interest rate sensitivity.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
No real moves here to offset 'market sentiment' on an interest rate increase. Other than being in some lifecos and fixed reset prefs as a positive, I will have to ride along with the 'negatives' that will affect most of the porftolio.
We need to remember a lot of our blue chips (and those globally) will be punished somewhat as (when or if) rates rise. Debt has been so cheap for so long, CFOs loaded up on debt vs more expensive equity to keep their combined cost of capital down. The piper has to be paid and that means profit margin pressure across a wide range of companies. If economic growth cannot offset those increases on the top line, then the bottom lines will be under pressure. There *is* a reason to have a 'proper' equity/fixed income asset allocation.
We need to remember a lot of our blue chips (and those globally) will be punished somewhat as (when or if) rates rise. Debt has been so cheap for so long, CFOs loaded up on debt vs more expensive equity to keep their combined cost of capital down. The piper has to be paid and that means profit margin pressure across a wide range of companies. If economic growth cannot offset those increases on the top line, then the bottom lines will be under pressure. There *is* a reason to have a 'proper' equity/fixed income asset allocation.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
If interest rates are going up I would think preferred resets offer a good opportunity . I am thinking the BMO preferred reset ETF .scomac wrote: ↑30 Jun 2017 09:59I did that last fall on the heels of the Trump election. I sold a series of rate reset preferred shares and moved the funds into CBH which is a 10 yr. corporate bond ladder ETF. Counterintuitive I know, but my thinking was that I would benefit from the rolling over of maturing bonds into higher yielding issues as rates went up. This would result in more stable capital values than what you could expect from preferreds under similar circumstances.JaydoubleU wrote: ↑30 Jun 2017 07:45 Anyone making any adjustments for the sudden turn in rising interest rate expectations?
I had in mind to trim a utility and buy a financial, but I missed my chance a couple of days ago. Now it's a hold, wait and see. I still don't believe interest rate are going to rise much---too dangerous.
So far, it has been a wash as the income generated has off-set the drop in unit value. I haven't been tempted to do anything else with respect to interest rate sensitivity.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
The recent angst about the effects of higher rates on utilities seems to be just a Canadian thing. Having always assumed that the rather benign role of the BoC was pretty much at the mercy of demands from the private sector that dances to the tune of the FED, I started nibbling on US financials last October when the writing was on the wall. I ramped up those purchases, including insurers wile reducing my exposure to utilities and Reits only slightly. I'm surprised that it took so long for the Canadian market to respond. Maybe concerns about the economy and eventual inflation from our snowballing deficit had something to do with that.JaydoubleU wrote: ↑30 Jun 2017 07:45 Anyone making any adjustments for the sudden turn in rising interest rate expectations?
With our eroding tax base and restrictive attitude towards resource projects (compared to the US), I'm tempted to take advantage of our recently strong dollar to switch into USD.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Some of the rate resets I dove into last year are up 20-25% (including dividends). My intention for many was to hold until 2025+ but I have been tempted to sell one or two just to have some extra cash on hand for any volatility. I'm at 6% cash right now which is where I would like to be (5% target) but given Wacko's Mood Swings and no further discussion on tax cuts or transfer of foreign earnings back into the USA I wonder if the market will do a reasonable correction.JaydoubleU wrote: ↑30 Jun 2017 07:45 Anyone making any adjustments for the sudden turn in rising interest rate expectations?
I've ensured my utility exposure to set to target given that many of them have some hedges to rising rates, but in reality the market will discount them in advance for a margin of safety.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
NO, I'm sticking to the plan, it may not be a good one but at least it's a plan.Anyone making any adjustments for the sudden turn in rising interest rate expectations?
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)
Added to Exchange Income Corp (TSE:EIF) at $29.87 this morning. Not sure what is with price volatility on no news lately.