What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

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What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Peculiar_Investor » 31 Dec 2016 09:31

This topic is where you can post actual or potential buys in 2017! We'd ask that you please include your rationale for the education of us all.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by brad911 » 31 Dec 2016 12:43

Didn't like my "should" suggestion? :D
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Peculiar_Investor » 31 Dec 2016 13:44

brad911 wrote:Didn't like my "should" suggestion? :D
I'd forgotten about it until you reminded me. Starting the new annual topics is generally a cut-and-paste effort and your suggestion got missed.

But it did get me thinking, would there be educational value from discussing what we should have bought (or sold)?
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by brad911 » 31 Dec 2016 20:14

That's why I suggested it. It can be hard to keep everyone on topic alone, but I think I would post some regretful insights into a stock or two I had watched, might buy but didn't. We can still post it, try it out for this year and consider a change in 2018.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 31 Dec 2016 22:50

Peculiar_Investor wrote:This topic is where you can post actual or potential buys in 2017! We'd ask that you please include your rationale for the education of us all.
I agree . Telling people what one bought with no analysis isn't of much value or interest.I also like to see thoughtful responses as well. I assume one of the purposes is help one another make good stock purchases.

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by scomac » 01 Jan 2017 10:16

Peculiar_Investor wrote:
brad911 wrote:Didn't like my "should" suggestion? :D
I'd forgotten about it until you reminded me. Starting the new annual topics is generally a cut-and-paste effort and your suggestion got missed.

But it did get me thinking, would there be educational value from discussing what we should have bought (or sold)?
Hindsight is always 20/20. It's difficult to say how actionable the discussion points would be going forward because history seldom repeats. It could be dangerous in the wrong hands if it leads to misplaced confidence.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Descartes » 02 Jan 2017 09:40

scomac wrote:It's difficult to say how actionable the discussion points would be going forward because history seldom repeats.
An identical opportunity may not reoccur but the review and refinement of the criteria one used in considering a buy/sell opportunity that was ultimately rejected might be useful.

Of course it depends on the content posted: the simple "Bought X at price Q/ Sold Y at price R" posts in these threads are just so much chaff.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by AltaRed » 02 Jan 2017 11:17

Maybe a parallel thread on What Should Have One Bought 2017? is the better way to address this. From my perspective, the primary (only?) value would be if someone "in hindsight" explains why they missed that opportunity, e.g. their analysis was flawed? they were greedy waiting for a lower bottom, they didn't think there would be more momentum in that stock, etc. Unless there is a specific lesson that repeats itself often enough, I don't know how one would apply that learning.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Sensei » 02 Jan 2017 18:26

Hi,

All the best in the New Year!

My current pharma holdings are JNJ and GSK. I sold AZN in the last year and am not that happy with GSK either. Could be a Brexit effect, but more than likely company specific. Anyway, I'm holding onto these two for now.

That said, I'm considering tiptoeing into one or two stocks I once owned in the pharmaceutical space.
1. Pfizer - sold it because I didn't think they were dividend friendly (and am still distrustrul).
2. Abbvie - I used to own the full company ABT, but I felt dissatisfied with the break up. I thought they were better as one.

Time has passed and now I'm leaning towards Abbvie for a few reasons. From a strictly investment point of view, it is trading at 9.5x, well below competitors like JNJ. The third quarter report was fairly positive and they are projecting double digit growth through 2020. The dividend is a bit better than Pfizer and Abbvie is rumoured to be to be raising the dividend 15.8% in 2017. Argus and S&P reports are close on a 52-week target price of around $85. Currently trading around $62.

Humira has not been as adversely affected as expected after going off patent. Another is that the pipeline for new drugs is looking better and they seem to be in the process of diversifying away from Humira either throught the development pipeline or accretive acquisitions.

However, Pfizer is also trending positive from my reading. I might add it as well.


Any thoughts??
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 03 Jan 2017 02:26

Sensei wrote:Hi,

All the best in the New Year!

My current pharma holdings are JNJ and GSK. I sold AZN in the last year and am not that happy with GSK either. Could be a Brexit effect, but more than likely company specific. Anyway, I'm holding onto these two for now.

That said, I'm considering tiptoeing into one or two stocks I once owned in the pharmaceutical space.
1. Pfizer - sold it because I didn't think they were dividend friendly (and am still distrustrul).
2. Abbvie - I used to own the full company ABT, but I felt dissatisfied with the break up. I thought they were better as one.

Time has passed and now I'm leaning towards Abbvie for a few reasons. From a strictly investment point of view, it is trading at 9.5x, well below competitors like JNJ. The third quarter report was fairly positive and they are projecting double digit growth through 2020. The dividend is a bit better than Pfizer and Abbvie is rumoured to be to be raising the dividend 15.8% in 2017. Argus and S&P reports are close on a 52-week target price of around $85. Currently trading around $62.

Humira has not been as adversely affected as expected after going off patent. Another is that the pipeline for new drugs is looking better and they seem to be in the process of diversifying away from Humira either throught the development pipeline or accretive acquisitions.

However, Pfizer is also trending positive from my reading. I might add it as well.


Any thoughts??
Pharma has been out of favour. Now that the elections are over I think they are reading for a recovery. Pfizer is one that interests me. It has lost some big money makers in viagra and liptor which have come off patents. They did buy another Pharma with an strong pipeline of drugs. Teva is another on my list. Abbvie is one that I will check out.

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Descartes » 03 Jan 2017 08:47

I know JNJ, GSK, Pfizer, and Abbvie are all broadly classed as pharma. However, JNJ makes less than 50% of their revenue from phramaceuticals.
I am not sure about GlaxoSmithKline, but I know they are vendors of toothpaste and nasal strips. The other two are 100% pharmaceutical, I think.

IMHO, I think any analysis of this set of "pharma" stocks would benefit from first considering the portion of pharmaceutical revenue each has. Pharmaceutical is different from other revenue segments, like consumer or medical devices, because of the key role of patents (upcoming, existing, and expiring).

Based purely on the differing % of pharmaceutical revenue, I think these stocks you mention are different animals with different risk levels, different growth potentials, and different dividend growth reliability.

Compare one zebra with another zebra. Don't try to compare a zebra with a platypus.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by brad911 » 03 Jan 2017 12:38

One thing to consider in your situational analysis would be the benefit for a 5-10% tax on foreign cash should THE DONALD elect to allow companies to bring back cash held internationally outside of the USA. This would be viewed by the market as very positive likely pushing their multiples up almost immediately. R&D, buy backs, dividend increases.....this is one group where you might want to weigh how positive that could be. I think it happens, although at what tax rate is any one's guess.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by planB » 03 Jan 2017 12:55

I bought VEA (foreign developed), and VWO (emerging markets) to rebalance.

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Sensei » 04 Jan 2017 08:48

Hi,

The Gipper, Descartes, and Brad, thanks for your insights.

Descartes, quite right the companies I mentioned do do different things and I'm quite aware of that. By way of an explanation for others who might be reading this, I use the G&M industry / sector classification system to divide my TD Direct portfolio into about 12 investment spaces. Not all divisions are equal, but I have a target amount for each sector. Since I sold AZN, I've been looking to add something else. I think that is what I said upthread.

FWIW, this is how four healthcare companies are presented by G&M.:
PFE and JNJ
Industy = Healthcare
Sector Pharmaceutical / Diversified.
ABBV
Industry = Healthcare
Sector = Pharmaceuticals and Generic Specialty

GSK is not well covered by G&M and has not been assigned either an industry or sector. Morningstar says:
GlaxoSmithKline PLC creates, discovers, develops, manufactures and markets pharmaceutical products including vaccines, over-the-counter (OTC) medicines and health-related consumer products.
As far as comparing zebras to zebras, and for the purposes of allotting more capital to my portfolio, I'm comparing PFE and ABBV which are close competitors. I've owned JNJ for 10 years and GSK for around 7 neither is a buy by any stretch of the imagination, and thus not in the race at all.

I haven't completely decided, but I'm still leaning towards ABBV.
Cheers

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 04 Jan 2017 10:26

I bought 800 shares of Milestone Apartments. Have been looking at it. It's fundamentals looks solid, there locations are solid and it's growth metrics are solid. The clincher for me is RBC just made it one of their top picks. I haven't owned a Reit for quite some time. I have been looking for something to invest in and almost everything looks t expensive. This investment is within our TFSAs.

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by brad911 » 04 Jan 2017 10:49

I only recently sold off my positions in BAX & BDX to invest in VOO along with a lot of other US/Int individual positions I held. Neither were pure pharma, but both were solid healthcare investments. Stryker is another one (PI I believe ones that) that I used to own and was a solid company. I would look at the bread & butter healthcare investments (IV's, devices, equipment) before the drug companies. More risk there I believe with all the working parts. But as said earlier if they can bring in their foreign reserves they'll get a big lift.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by deaddog » 04 Jan 2017 11:31

TS.b
A technical buy; Price has based for a while and is breaking out above $2.00
On a weekly chart the price has moved above the 30 week moving average and traded higher than the first time it traded above the 30 week ma.
The move is confirmed with the 10ma crossing the 30ma.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by scomac » 04 Jan 2017 13:18

I opened a new position in SLF today. I've owned this off and on since it demutualized back in 1999. It really hasn't done much in the past 10 years as the current price is around about where I sold out before the credit crisis.

Despite reading several analyst reports that pegs SLF as fairly to fully valued on a quantitative basis, I tend to think it is pretty cheap right here notwithstanding the rally that has gone on since the US Presidential election.

Where else can you find a stock that is positively levered to rising interest rates, yet still trades at 1 times sales and only 4 times cash flow with only 35% of their revenue from domestic insurance operations. Debt is below average for the group coupled with above average net margin. It is getting to the upper end of the valuation range by P/E and P/B, but it still works out to deliver an implied return of around 15% per annum based on book value growth and ROE.

I've had my eye on the lifecos for a while since prior to the US election. It has rallied $7.50 or so since then which is substantial, however I feel there could be that much in it again over the next 12-18 months which the chart confirms. The dividend has been increased twice in the previous 4 quarters, so there is lots of positive momentum behind this stock. As always, YMMV.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by jay » 04 Jan 2017 14:55

Was hoping to catch Metro (TSE:MRU) for less than $40/share. Decided to write June put options for @2.05/each. If assigned, my cost would be ~$38/share which I would be happy with. I like to think of it as a prepaid dividend (3.5X the yearly dividend) albeit at the risk of missing gains if the stock takes off during the next 5 months.

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by brad911 » 04 Jan 2017 15:51

jay wrote:Was hoping to catch Metro (TSE:MRU) for less than $40/share.....
$39.77 right now ?
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by AltaRed » 04 Jan 2017 18:29

brad911 wrote:
jay wrote:Was hoping to catch Metro (TSE:MRU) for less than $40/share.....
$39.77 right now ?
I am betting this sucker is heading still lower... Looking at a one year chart, the technicals say so. :lol:

P.S. It is on my watch list.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Peculiar_Investor » 04 Jan 2017 18:59

brad911 wrote:Stryker is another one (PI I believe ones that) that I used to own and was a solid company.
Since the Canadian Health Care sector is so small by market weight and the constituents don't inspire me to spend too much time researching and analyzing, I've chosen to research, analyze and select from the US market. As well as Stryker (SYK), I've got holdings in BDX, ABBV and ABT, thanks in part to brad911's recommendations of where to look when I was exiting JNJ.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Sensei » 04 Jan 2017 20:45

Hi,

After reading this thread again last night, and after some handwringing, I decided on ABBV and initiated a (modest) position.

Brad, thanks for other ideas.
Cheers

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 04 Jan 2017 21:55

Peculiar_Investor wrote:
brad911 wrote:Stryker is another one (PI I believe ones that) that I used to own and was a solid company.
Since the Canadian Health Care sector is so small by market weight and the constituents don't inspire me to spend too much time researching and analyzing, I've chosen to research, analyze and select from the US market. As well as Stryker (SYK), I've got holdings in BDX, ABBV and ABT, thanks in part to brad911's recommendations of where to look when I was exiting JNJ.
It is limited. I got out of Valeant, Concordia and Patient Home with really good profits . Sure glad I got out before the train wreck came. For some reason I stayed with CHR and even added more. That turned into a great stock. I got nervous in Dec and reduced my position. I came to the conclusion today it was hard to find a better stock then Canadian CHR so i bought 900 shares today.

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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2017)

Post by Thegipper » 04 Jan 2017 21:59

Thegipper wrote:
Peculiar_Investor wrote:
brad911 wrote:Stryker is another one (PI I believe ones that) that I used to own and was a solid company.
Since the Canadian Health Care sector is so small by market weight and the constituents don't inspire me to spend too much time researching and analyzing, I've chosen to research, analyze and select from the US market. As well as Stryker (SYK), I've got holdings in BDX, ABBV and ABT, thanks in part to brad911's recommendations of where to look when I was exiting JNJ.
It is limited. I got out of Valeant, Concordia and Patient Home with really good profits . Sure glad I got out before the train wreck came. For some reason I stayed with CHR and even added more. That turned into a great stock. I got nervous in Dec and reduced my position. I came to the conclusion today it was hard to find a better stock then Canadian CHR so i bought 900 shares today.
I have Teva and would buy more if I had the cash. I have bought CVR in late December. I am wondering how repealing Obama care will have on this stock. Don't think it would be good. Any thoughts on CVR?

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