2017 Predictions Contest

Discuss your favourite picks, broker, and trading or investment style.
Sensei
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Sensei » 29 Dec 2016 21:33

My Entry:

I'm fairly bullish and I wanna say an 8% rise for the two indexes...
DOW: 21,500
TSX: 17,000
GOLD: 1400
OIL: 65
CAD: 80
Cheers

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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan » 30 Dec 2016 08:12

LadyGeek wrote:I assume it's the prices quoted here: Yahoo Finance
Yes and gold/oil futures are from the CME Group (30 day).
For the fun of it...Keith

robertro
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by robertro » 03 Jan 2017 10:41

Happy New Year to all !

I peered into the crystal ball and ...

DOW: 20980
TSX: 17541
GOLD: $1262
OIL: $68.23
CAD: $0.7865
Last edited by robertro on 05 Jan 2017 07:55, edited 1 time in total.

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CROCKD
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by CROCKD » 03 Jan 2017 16:55

My guestimates:

DOW: 21150
TSX: 16150
GOLD: 1200
OIL: 58.25
CAD: 0.7150
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nisser
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by nisser » 04 Jan 2017 01:41

DOW: 20002
TSX: 16002
GOLD: 1147
OIL: 58
CAD: 0.73

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poedin
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by poedin » 04 Jan 2017 18:28

:idea:
Going for a combination of LadyGeek's "recommend[ation of] using the same precision as kcowan uses in his spreadsheet. It's a close contest, the extra places are needed to avoid a tie..." and a quasi-loopy-binary? modification of adrian2's inspirational repetition of a single digit:

DOW 18181
TSX 15151
GLD 1212
OIL 47.47
CAD .7878

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farco
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by farco » 05 Jan 2017 10:34

Good one :lol:

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Peculiar_Investor
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor » 05 Jan 2017 10:47

Rather than throwing darts, I'm primed with another approach :lol:

Dow: 21397
TSX: 17783
Gold: 1141.1
Oil: 53.23
CAD: .6983
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SoninlawofGus
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by SoninlawofGus » 08 Jan 2017 14:22

After a respectable 8th in 2015, I really sucked at this last year, finishing a dismal 34th (and far off on every prediction). Good thing I didn't base my investments on that (and won't this year either). I'll try again...
DOW: 18365
TSX: 13946
GOLD: 1290
OIL: 65
CAD: .765

One thing missing in the contest, probably mentioned by others over the years, is a bond metric. That's probably because the numbers do not vary much. But predicting up, down, or sideways might be interesting.

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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan » 09 Jan 2017 09:18

I have had a request for S&P in the past and I said that I would include anything that there was widespread support for by the group. So I am open to what and how the participants suggest we include. Remember that anything included gets into the winning average as well.
For the fun of it...Keith

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Peculiar_Investor
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor » 09 Jan 2017 09:55

kcowan wrote:I have had a request for S&P in the past and I said that I would include anything that there was widespread support for by the group. So I am open to what and how the participants suggest we include. Remember that anything included gets into the winning average as well.
The S&P 500 is a far better benchmark than the Dow so better represents the US equity market. That said, it's probably too late to change for 2017 as everyone would have to do careful analysis and recalculation throw darts again :lol: to update their predictions. Defer to the 2018 contest?
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.

Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams

schmuck
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by schmuck » 09 Jan 2017 18:01

DOW: 21800
TSX: 16540
GOLG: 1280
OIL: 58.40
CAD: 73.80
Last edited by schmuck on 11 Jan 2017 17:37, edited 1 time in total.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek » 09 Jan 2017 21:22

Peculiar_Investor wrote:
kcowan wrote:I have had a request for S&P in the past and I said that I would include anything that there was widespread support for by the group. So I am open to what and how the participants suggest we include. Remember that anything included gets into the winning average as well.
The S&P 500 is a far better benchmark than the Dow so better represents the US equity market. That said, it's probably too late to change for 2017 as everyone would have to do careful analysis and recalculation throw darts again :lol: to update their predictions. Defer to the 2018 contest?
I don't think it's too late to change. Here's why the DOW should be replaced: Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Useless
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poedin
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by poedin » 09 Jan 2017 23:07

I'm for S&P500. :thumbsup:

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poedin
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by poedin » 09 Jan 2017 23:10

poedin wrote::idea:
Going for a combination of LadyGeek's "recommend[ation of] using the same precision as kcowan uses in his spreadsheet. It's a close contest, the extra places are needed to avoid a tie..." and a quasi-loopy-binary? modification of adrian2's inspirational repetition of a single digit:

DOW 18181
TSX 15151
GLD 1212
OIL 47.47
CAD .7878
S&P500 2020

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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan » 10 Jan 2017 11:02

We have a week to make the change. All in favour?
For the fun of it...Keith

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Peculiar_Investor
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor » 10 Jan 2017 11:32

Peculiar_Investor wrote:Rather than throwing darts, I'm primed with another approach :lol:

Dow: 21397
TSX: 17783
Gold: 1141.1
Oil: 53.23
CAD: .6983
S&P 500: 2393
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.

Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams

Spudd
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Spudd » 10 Jan 2017 11:49

I'm against changing it for this year, because some people who have already entered may not revisit this thread in time to find out.

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farco
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by farco » 10 Jan 2017 19:07

I'm against too, it's a free choice.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek » 10 Jan 2017 20:26

LadyGeek wrote:I assume it's the prices quoted here: Yahoo Finance

DOW: 21,201
TSX: 16,789
GOLD: 1,234
OIL: 56.78
CAD: 0.7890

I recommend using the same precision as kcowan uses in his spreadsheet. It's a close contest, the extra places are needed to avoid a tie.

OIL is to 2 decimal places (56.78), CAD to 4 (0.7890).
S&P 500: 2345.67

==============================
Spudd wrote:I'm against changing it for this year, because some people who have already entered may not revisit this thread in time to find out.
Good point. If we don't get everyone, I agree that deferring until next year is appropriate.
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Koogie
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Koogie » 10 Jan 2017 22:32

schmuck wrote:DOW: 2180
TSX: 16540
GOLG: 1280
OIL: 58.40
CAD: 73.80
That'd be a helluva drop on the DOW. Maybe you lost a digit ? :?


In terms of the contest choices, I'd vote for sticking with the "DOW for NOW" :lol:
Buy very little, sell even less.

rokman
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by rokman » 11 Jan 2017 14:51

DOW: 16919
TSX: 11919
GOLD: 919
OIL: 69.19
CAD: .6919

I will call this "The Year Where Nothing Made Cents"

Congrats on winning the 2016 contest, Nisser.

rokman

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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by schmuck » 11 Jan 2017 17:40

Koogie wrote: That'd be a helluva drop on the DOW. Maybe you lost a digit ? :?
Thanks

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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan » 15 Jan 2017 09:08

Last chance! You have until 9:30 EST Monday to make your wild guesses. I notice a few obvious omissions.
For the fun of it...Keith

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optionable68
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by optionable68 » 15 Jan 2017 11:10

kcowan wrote:Last chance! You have until 9:30 EST Monday to make your wild guesses. I notice a few obvious omissions.
Thanks for the reminder :thumbsup:

I hereby pledge that I will do much better then I did in 2016 but not as good as 2015

DOW: 21010
TSX: 16450
GOLD: 1205
OIL: 61
CAD: .7575

And I vote "yes" for S&P to be used over the DOW in the 2018 contest
1st Place Winner of FWF's 2007 & 2015 Stock Market Predictor Contest. :)

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