2017 Predictions Contest

Discuss your favourite picks, broker, and trading or investment style.
Thegipper
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Thegipper »

I am just looking at my YTD return. It's 5.4% on straight stock market returns. Because I have a large chunk in USA stocks in USA dollars I am up 3% on currency exchange. I retired in 2008 and I spend 5 months in the USA. The best decision I made was to place half my stock choices in the USA in US dollars.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Thegipper wrote: 30 Apr 2017 19:52.. The best decision I made was to place half my stock choices in the USA in US dollars.
AR has contributed on CMF about the downside of keeping a USD account and using it to pay your USD bills when you are making exchange gains during the year.
Link
(I doubt that it is a practical risk but interesting to note. I will leave it to AR to comment further.)
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AltaRed
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by AltaRed »

Any discussion of this should be in a different thread.....so as not to contaminate this one.
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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

No change for May. Hang in there nile...
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

poedin bounds into the lead with mrPPincer and nile chomping at the bits.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

poedin hangs on for another month!

Notice who is in 2nd place!
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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

And 3rd!

finiki page: FWF contests

Direct link to standings: File:2017Forecast.jpg
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poedin
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by poedin »

Only a handful of months to go. What could happen in between? :roll:
At least these predictions are holding up better than my hedge fund...
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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

No change for this month!
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

A change in leadership as we enter the last quarter!

New leader is, ahem: kcowan

Runners up are nile and LadyGeek.

(Results now showing at http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:2017Forecast.jpg)
Last edited by kcowan on 02 Oct 2017 03:22, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by mrPPincer »

Congrats Keith!
Only 3 months to go, can you hold the lead?
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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Still holding the lead!

Contenders are LadyGeek and schmuck.

Latest results
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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Interesting. Keith's percentage is nearly the same from last month to this month (3.95556% 3.9210%), while my percentage is still zeroing in (5.5201% to 4.44472%).

Two months to go, right where I want to be.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Too bad LadyGeek, you got overtaken by schmuck this month. With kukcanuck in second place.

Easy come, easy go!
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Suggestion for future predictions contests:

Post by Irwin »

Listening to a short video with Jeff Christian, where he predicts that the annual average price of silver will reach $38 by 2023, got me thinking about these predictions contests.

Instead of trying to pinpoint the price of an index or commodity at the close on the last day of the year, would it make more sense to try to predict the annual average price for the year?

Or would the math be too much of a hassle for a volunteer endeavour?
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

kcowan wrote: 30 Nov 2017 17:59 Too bad LadyGeek, you got overtaken by schmuck this month. With kukcanuck in second place.

Easy come, easy go!
My analysis shows it coming back for next month.
Irwin wrote: 01 Dec 2017 18:00 Listening to a short video with Jeff Christian, where he predicts that the annual average price of silver will reach $38 by 2023, got me thinking about these predictions contests.

Instead of trying to pinpoint the price of an index or commodity at the close on the last day of the year, would it make more sense to try to predict the annual average price for the year?

Or would the math be too much of a hassle for a volunteer endeavour?
It's not the hassle, but how many decimal places. As the year progresses, the daily change in average price will decrease as the number of days to average increases. I don't think it will be as much fun.
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Re: Suggestion for future predictions contests:

Post by kcowan »

Irwin wrote: 01 Dec 2017 18:00Or would the math be too much of a hassle for a volunteer endeavour?
Because it is a volunteer effort, any ideas can be made to work. For 2018, we are planning to switch from the Dow to the S&P because it represents the value of the market.

Although averages are easy to handle, it becomes less a prediction of a horse race but which horse had the best average speed on the racetrack. As a model, I do not see it as a winner. We have considered quarterly winners which gets closer to your idea and more like Vegas, but decided that that too would not be worth it even though it is no more work.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Irwin »

Thanks for the feedback LadyGeek and kcowan.

One pitfall I've thought of if predictions are averaged, is that guesses might be clustered in a very tight range, not the many interesting outliers that are evident now.

The calculations might be less problem than I thought; I wouldn't want anyone to be tracking daily highs and lows, including myself.

For S&P 500 there's already a site giving monthly average prices.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historica ... e/by-month

With a bit of digging, one could probably find similar sites for the other contest components.
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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

The final results are in and kukcanuck is the winner with runners up schmuck and Shurville. Congratulations and see you next year. Keith

Final results for 2017
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by biker »

I seem to make the top 5-10 each year. Wish I used this guess as a guide for my portfolio!
Thanks Keith
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kukucanuck »

WOW! I really did not expect to win.
It is really humbling.
There are lots of experts here - lots to learn from all the experts
Thank you kcowan and all others who helped during the contest. It was lot of fun.
Look forward to 2018. It may be topsy turvy and challenging year.
Happy New year to all!

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optionable68
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by optionable68 »

Congrats kukucanuck on the big win.

And thanks kcowan for running this again.

I'm grateful for my 6th place finish which is a vast improvement from my dismal showing in 2016.

Onward and upward to 2018 ! :thumbsup:
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Congratulations to kukucanuck and all those in the top 10. I guess we'll have to study your posts in further detail going forward :)

I take solace in my dismal result as proof that I know nothing about the future and confirmation that my crystal ball is clearly broken and unusable. Fortunately I don't undertake to make predictions about the future for a living.

Thanks Keith for the time and effort spent running this contest.
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scomac
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by scomac »

I would also like to add my congratulations to kukucanuck for a guess job well done! It would appear that i had a decent effort myself with an 8th place finish. I think prices moved my direction a lot in the last month as the last time I checked I was in the 20's for ranking! Thanks to Keith for running the contest and agreeing to carry on with it in 2018. Get your predictions ready, folks!
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kcowan
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest

Post by kcowan »

Yes I was leading at the end of October and ended up in 6th place. An OK result but also humbling.

And poedin was king for 3 months but ended up in 28th place!

This is fun because it costs us nothing! Other than pride?
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