2017 Predictions Contest
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I am just looking at my YTD return. It's 5.4% on straight stock market returns. Because I have a large chunk in USA stocks in USA dollars I am up 3% on currency exchange. I retired in 2008 and I spend 5 months in the USA. The best decision I made was to place half my stock choices in the USA in US dollars.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
AR has contributed on CMF about the downside of keeping a USD account and using it to pay your USD bills when you are making exchange gains during the year.
Link
(I doubt that it is a practical risk but interesting to note. I will leave it to AR to comment further.)
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Any discussion of this should be in a different thread.....so as not to contaminate this one.
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
poedin bounds into the lead with mrPPincer and nile chomping at the bits.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
poedin hangs on for another month!
Notice who is in 2nd place!
Notice who is in 2nd place!
For the fun of it...Keith
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Only a handful of months to go. What could happen in between?
At least these predictions are holding up better than my hedge fund...
At least these predictions are holding up better than my hedge fund...
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
A change in leadership as we enter the last quarter!
New leader is, ahem: kcowan
Runners up are nile and LadyGeek.
(Results now showing at http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:2017Forecast.jpg)
New leader is, ahem: kcowan
Runners up are nile and LadyGeek.
(Results now showing at http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:2017Forecast.jpg)
Last edited by kcowan on 02 Oct 2017 03:22, edited 2 times in total.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Congrats Keith!
Only 3 months to go, can you hold the lead?
Only 3 months to go, can you hold the lead?
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
For the fun of it...Keith
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Interesting. Keith's percentage is nearly the same from last month to this month (3.95556% 3.9210%), while my percentage is still zeroing in (5.5201% to 4.44472%).
Two months to go, right where I want to be.
Two months to go, right where I want to be.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Too bad LadyGeek, you got overtaken by schmuck this month. With kukcanuck in second place.
Easy come, easy go!
Easy come, easy go!
For the fun of it...Keith
Suggestion for future predictions contests:
Listening to a short video with Jeff Christian, where he predicts that the annual average price of silver will reach $38 by 2023, got me thinking about these predictions contests.
Instead of trying to pinpoint the price of an index or commodity at the close on the last day of the year, would it make more sense to try to predict the annual average price for the year?
Or would the math be too much of a hassle for a volunteer endeavour?
Instead of trying to pinpoint the price of an index or commodity at the close on the last day of the year, would it make more sense to try to predict the annual average price for the year?
Or would the math be too much of a hassle for a volunteer endeavour?
- LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
My analysis shows it coming back for next month.
It's not the hassle, but how many decimal places. As the year progresses, the daily change in average price will decrease as the number of days to average increases. I don't think it will be as much fun.Irwin wrote: ↑01 Dec 2017 18:00 Listening to a short video with Jeff Christian, where he predicts that the annual average price of silver will reach $38 by 2023, got me thinking about these predictions contests.
Instead of trying to pinpoint the price of an index or commodity at the close on the last day of the year, would it make more sense to try to predict the annual average price for the year?
Or would the math be too much of a hassle for a volunteer endeavour?
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Re: Suggestion for future predictions contests:
Because it is a volunteer effort, any ideas can be made to work. For 2018, we are planning to switch from the Dow to the S&P because it represents the value of the market.
Although averages are easy to handle, it becomes less a prediction of a horse race but which horse had the best average speed on the racetrack. As a model, I do not see it as a winner. We have considered quarterly winners which gets closer to your idea and more like Vegas, but decided that that too would not be worth it even though it is no more work.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Thanks for the feedback LadyGeek and kcowan.
One pitfall I've thought of if predictions are averaged, is that guesses might be clustered in a very tight range, not the many interesting outliers that are evident now.
The calculations might be less problem than I thought; I wouldn't want anyone to be tracking daily highs and lows, including myself.
For S&P 500 there's already a site giving monthly average prices.
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historica ... e/by-month
With a bit of digging, one could probably find similar sites for the other contest components.
One pitfall I've thought of if predictions are averaged, is that guesses might be clustered in a very tight range, not the many interesting outliers that are evident now.
The calculations might be less problem than I thought; I wouldn't want anyone to be tracking daily highs and lows, including myself.
For S&P 500 there's already a site giving monthly average prices.
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historica ... e/by-month
With a bit of digging, one could probably find similar sites for the other contest components.
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
The final results are in and kukcanuck is the winner with runners up schmuck and Shurville. Congratulations and see you next year. Keith
Final results for 2017
Final results for 2017
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I seem to make the top 5-10 each year. Wish I used this guess as a guide for my portfolio!
Thanks Keith
Thanks Keith
Live like you are dying but invest like you are immortal.
"Men do not quit playing because they grow old ; they grow old because they quit playing" Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Men do not quit playing because they grow old ; they grow old because they quit playing" Oliver Wendell Holmes
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
WOW! I really did not expect to win.
It is really humbling.
There are lots of experts here - lots to learn from all the experts
Thank you kcowan and all others who helped during the contest. It was lot of fun.
Look forward to 2018. It may be topsy turvy and challenging year.
Happy New year to all!
Kukucanuck
It is really humbling.
There are lots of experts here - lots to learn from all the experts
Thank you kcowan and all others who helped during the contest. It was lot of fun.
Look forward to 2018. It may be topsy turvy and challenging year.
Happy New year to all!
Kukucanuck
- optionable68
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Congrats kukucanuck on the big win.
And thanks kcowan for running this again.
I'm grateful for my 6th place finish which is a vast improvement from my dismal showing in 2016.
Onward and upward to 2018 !
And thanks kcowan for running this again.
I'm grateful for my 6th place finish which is a vast improvement from my dismal showing in 2016.
Onward and upward to 2018 !
3-time winner of FWF Annual Stock Market Predictions contest
- Peculiar_Investor
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Congratulations to kukucanuck and all those in the top 10. I guess we'll have to study your posts in further detail going forward
I take solace in my dismal result as proof that I know nothing about the future and confirmation that my crystal ball is clearly broken and unusable. Fortunately I don't undertake to make predictions about the future for a living.
Thanks Keith for the time and effort spent running this contest.
I take solace in my dismal result as proof that I know nothing about the future and confirmation that my crystal ball is clearly broken and unusable. Fortunately I don't undertake to make predictions about the future for a living.
Thanks Keith for the time and effort spent running this contest.
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- scomac
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Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
I would also like to add my congratulations to kukucanuck for a guess job well done! It would appear that i had a decent effort myself with an 8th place finish. I think prices moved my direction a lot in the last month as the last time I checked I was in the 20's for ranking! Thanks to Keith for running the contest and agreeing to carry on with it in 2018. Get your predictions ready, folks!
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
Re: 2017 Predictions Contest
Yes I was leading at the end of October and ended up in 6th place. An OK result but also humbling.
And poedin was king for 3 months but ended up in 28th place!
This is fun because it costs us nothing! Other than pride?
And poedin was king for 3 months but ended up in 28th place!
This is fun because it costs us nothing! Other than pride?
For the fun of it...Keith