What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Recently bought some:
Pengrowth (PGF-T) around $4 range
AGF Management (AGF.B-T) around $8
Re: Oil and resource related stocks have seen their shares prices crushed in a short span of time. This crash seems a lot like US financial stocks experienced around 2006 and on where my share values of some US Banks went kaput (e.g. Washington Mutual). The key for me was to stick with it and hopefully dollar cost average near the bottom. That's the hard part and choosing ones that will survive and conquer for another day. Commodities are more volatile and so don't know if the move is right but at least the share price is cheaper than one year ago. By the way, I like the contrarian picks and noticed Benj Gallander had PGF as a top pick on BNN.
Pengrowth (PGF-T) around $4 range
AGF Management (AGF.B-T) around $8
Re: Oil and resource related stocks have seen their shares prices crushed in a short span of time. This crash seems a lot like US financial stocks experienced around 2006 and on where my share values of some US Banks went kaput (e.g. Washington Mutual). The key for me was to stick with it and hopefully dollar cost average near the bottom. That's the hard part and choosing ones that will survive and conquer for another day. Commodities are more volatile and so don't know if the move is right but at least the share price is cheaper than one year ago. By the way, I like the contrarian picks and noticed Benj Gallander had PGF as a top pick on BNN.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Buying PGF at this level only makes sense if PGF's all-in cash operating costs are less than their cash net back is at today's commodity netback prices. Be sure to do the full cash flow analysis and not just look at what is called 'operating costs' which has been grossly misused the last few months.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Thanks for the comments Altared. I plead guilty into doing brief and minimal financial analysis compared to you...and the reason why I often get caught with my pants down:) i.e. stock tanks further and get burned. I screen stocks with google finance. For PGF, I found a low p/b under .8 , low p/s, current ratio above 1, a bit of cash, and uh ummm reasonable indebtedness. I referred to a CIBC Reuter's research report PGF debt/equity (MRI) was 0.45. I stopped there and took the plunge. Due to my lack of effort / abilities for detailed financial analysis, I will sometimes wait and see if other more known "contrarian" investors do the same (copycat).....Therefore, I should recommence my caveat....attention all...my picks are not recommendations but only personal notes documented here so that I can look back in time to remember...why the heck did I buy that one? Some times, I look brilliant and others time dooooouuugggh.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
I think he's referring to making sure that the company can even make profit at current prices, not the stock metrics. As an example, Pacific rubiales claims operating costs of 28$/barrel and plans to lift about 150,000 barrels of oil/day. At an oil price of 48$/barrel, the revenue amounts to ~55million barrels/year x 20$ gross profit/barrel = 1.1$ billion revenue. (Which is less than the projected revenue that they expect since they project oil is going to be 55-60$/barrel). This would give them negative cash flow for the year (i.e. not profitable).
It's very rudimentary but can give you a rough idea if the company would have negative or positive cash flow in the coming year.
It's very rudimentary but can give you a rough idea if the company would have negative or positive cash flow in the coming year.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Added about $7k to each of our TFSAs
- RY in wife's
- RUS in mine. (was going to buy Riocan, but it seems a bit inflated)
Also used up some cash in my RRIF.
- 10k of EIF.DB.F for yield.
- $5k of a Fairfax 2021 bond.
Now pretty well fully invested.
Already own EIF.DB.C, so buying another CD from same company may not be smart. Chasing yield - again
Added to existing holding in Fairfax bond with about 6yr to maturity and yielding about 3.4%. Just to boost FI allocation, but maybe another CD would have been a smarter move.
- RY in wife's
- RUS in mine. (was going to buy Riocan, but it seems a bit inflated)
Also used up some cash in my RRIF.
- 10k of EIF.DB.F for yield.
- $5k of a Fairfax 2021 bond.
Now pretty well fully invested.
Already own EIF.DB.C, so buying another CD from same company may not be smart. Chasing yield - again
Added to existing holding in Fairfax bond with about 6yr to maturity and yielding about 3.4%. Just to boost FI allocation, but maybe another CD would have been a smarter move.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Bindexit and Nisser, I am indeed looking specifically at cash flow in these depressed times, specifically the revenue line (sales price at plant gate which ensures transportation costs have been deducted) less All cash operating costs, not just 'operating costs'. Cash operating costs include current taxes, royalties, current interest on debt and G&A costs. Companies rarely quote the 'all in' number and a surprising number of talking heads and financial pornographers do not either.
This information is found from the latest cash flow statement for the company, not for a specific asset, although it can be tricky to estimate current taxes and royalties since these are either revenue or margin dependent.
Nisser, I am willing to bet the $28/B you quoted is not All cash operating costs, just those cash costs within the plant gate. I bet the real cash margin is less than you think.
This information is found from the latest cash flow statement for the company, not for a specific asset, although it can be tricky to estimate current taxes and royalties since these are either revenue or margin dependent.
Nisser, I am willing to bet the $28/B you quoted is not All cash operating costs, just those cash costs within the plant gate. I bet the real cash margin is less than you think.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Hi,
Over the course of this week I added to HSBC. My motivation was the disappointing news from Santander. My Canadian banks continue to be stalwart performers, but outside Canada it's difficult to find a decent bank that pays a good dividend.
HSBC is it, in my opinion. It is quite close to its 52-week low of 44.72. I think the price is temporarily low due to some high profile problems (failure to police money laundering activities), which will be insignificant in the near future. Currency headwinds may also be a factor, but they always are.
I also added a modest number of units to AX.UN. Nice mix of properties geographically and by type (industrial, office, and retail). Also well managed by all accounts.
I'm considering CM as a possible destination for funds from my eventual sale of Santander.
Over the course of this week I added to HSBC. My motivation was the disappointing news from Santander. My Canadian banks continue to be stalwart performers, but outside Canada it's difficult to find a decent bank that pays a good dividend.
HSBC is it, in my opinion. It is quite close to its 52-week low of 44.72. I think the price is temporarily low due to some high profile problems (failure to police money laundering activities), which will be insignificant in the near future. Currency headwinds may also be a factor, but they always are.
I also added a modest number of units to AX.UN. Nice mix of properties geographically and by type (industrial, office, and retail). Also well managed by all accounts.
I'm considering CM as a possible destination for funds from my eventual sale of Santander.
Cheers
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
"A dividend being paid today is always a positive return." Josh Peters, Morningstar
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
For yield and equity I bought RY this week in my non-reg'd account and, in late Dec. ZWU for my RRSP.
Bought a small position in ARX (the devil made me do it)
Bought a small position in ARX (the devil made me do it)
“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.”
― Epictetus
― Epictetus
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Dream Global REIT on Thursday for new money in our TFSAs. Yielding 9%
Global is a misnomer - mostly German office properties
Normally I wouldn't get near to a REIT with external management but after the ECB's QE announcement I think that new money on the European/German bank balance sheet will go into property. Government bond rates are negative and the banks already have a lot of corporates. A Korean Pension Fund has bought from Dream (will Japanese Pension Funds follow?), thus freeing up cash for more purchases elsewhere. Will the banks do the same thus bidding up prices?
Anyway all very speculative and up 4% which is unusual since it has been range bound for quite some time. Greek election results may knock that back.
Global is a misnomer - mostly German office properties
Normally I wouldn't get near to a REIT with external management but after the ECB's QE announcement I think that new money on the European/German bank balance sheet will go into property. Government bond rates are negative and the banks already have a lot of corporates. A Korean Pension Fund has bought from Dream (will Japanese Pension Funds follow?), thus freeing up cash for more purchases elsewhere. Will the banks do the same thus bidding up prices?
Anyway all very speculative and up 4% which is unusual since it has been range bound for quite some time. Greek election results may knock that back.
"We have two classes of forecaster: Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.” John Kenneth Galbraith
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
In January, I redeployed some funds from COS tax loss selling as follows:
Added to my position in WJX at $24.00. Currently underwater, but have been looking to add for some time and $24 seemed too good to pass up.
Initiated a position in HSE at $24.65. Cash flow seems reasonable and it is a more diversified energy holding - plant shutdown and oil prices conspired to knock this one down to this level for a while.
Added to my position in WJX at $24.00. Currently underwater, but have been looking to add for some time and $24 seemed too good to pass up.
Initiated a position in HSE at $24.65. Cash flow seems reasonable and it is a more diversified energy holding - plant shutdown and oil prices conspired to knock this one down to this level for a while.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Yawn, build-up of USD cash deployed by added to holding of Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA). Our international equity asset allocation was furthest from target so the most logical choice.
Sorry, nothing particularly exciting here. Just executing the plan.
Sorry, nothing particularly exciting here. Just executing the plan.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Held my nose and renewed my 2.6 GIC rung at 2.05.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Sticking to a GIC/bond ladder in a FI allocation is a challenge these days (replaced some matured ones in January @ 2.55),
yet compared to current bond yields (5 yr GOCs <1, provs ~1.5, corps @ 2) ...
yet compared to current bond yields (5 yr GOCs <1, provs ~1.5, corps @ 2) ...
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
That's a good rate considering that on Feb 02, the GoC 5 year benchmark bond yield was 0.59%, and since 20% of a ladder picks up the latest rates of the day every year, there's no reason in my opinion to hold ones nose.Shakespeare wrote:Held my nose and renewed my 2.6 GIC rung at 2.05.
ltr
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
The Blackstone Group. Bank New York Mellon
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Thinking of buying Merus. Seems to be on a roll.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
I have bought PZZA[Papa John's Pizza]. It has really good growth and a very good ROE. I also have UVE a USA property insurer. I bought this for the same reasons. Celanse is on my radar screen so is Borg Warner. Again for the same reasons.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Started a very small position in AT and T (T) to mop up some cash in the RRSP's.
2 yen
2 yen
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Bought a small position in NAL (which I used to own years ago)....will tentatively see if I add in the next few weeks.
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Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Bought some ZUT to use up cash in my TFSA. First foray into owning any BMO funds.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Took some real solid profits on Cipher, Papa John's and a little bit on Westjet. Used the proceeds to buy Aig, Met, QSR and IPL. It's really hard to know what to do these days. By most metrics this market is very expensive if you ignore energy and resource stocks.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Took some real solid profits on Cipher, Papa John's and a little bit on Westjet. Used the proceeds to buy Aig, Met, QSR and IPL. It's really hard to know what to do these days. By most metrics this market is very expensive if you ignore energy and resource stocks.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
I bought into Choice property REIT and Boardwalk. Overall in my REIT portfolio trimming some of the big box retailers to move conservative options. Overall I am trimming my REIT holdings.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Bought into Valeant and took the last little ride up.....not a divident player but I am one of the few that likes the business model, at the same time picking up some healthcare exposure.
Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2015)
Bought 200 KP Tissue.