Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Despite the glowing reviews from John Heinzl and his analyst contacts, unless I see positive change in the payout ratio covering the dividend coming from either present earnings or free cash flow, AQN won't be going on my watch list any time soon.
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Algonquin Power: Why I'm not selling my shares despite stock's volatility
John Heinzl - Iinvestment Reporter
The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Nov. 05 2013, 7:14 PM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Nov. 05 2013, 7:14 PM EST
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Algonquin Power: Why I'm not selling my shares despite stock's volatility
John Heinzl - Iinvestment Reporter
The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Nov. 05 2013, 7:14 PM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Nov. 05 2013, 7:14 PM EST
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Geez, I can't believe it. Someone else actually sees the same thing I'm looking at.Taggart wrote:Despite the glowing reviews from John Heinzl and his analyst contacts, unless I see positive change in the payout ratio covering the dividend coming from either present earnings or free cash flow, AQN won't be going on my watch list any time soon.
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Algonquin Power: Why I'm not selling my shares despite stock's volatility
John Heinzl - Iinvestment Reporter
The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Nov. 05 2013, 7:14 PM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Nov. 05 2013, 7:14 PM EST
Globeinvestor
David Milstead
Published Wednesday, Nov. 13 2013, 8:02 PM EST
Last updated Wednesday, Nov. 13 2013, 8:02 PM EST
"Indeed, Algonquin’s story is very much about the future, not the past. In taking a tour of the company’s results, I find that its return on invested capital is paltry even by utility-industry standards; in most 12-month periods over the last decade, it fails to top 3 per cent. Similarly, except for a period in 2010-2011, the company’s operating cash flow has failed to cover its capital expenditures and its dividend."
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
I've been watching AQN closely the last few months. In spite of a lot of analyst hype---we've learned to be very skeptical of analyst hype---I've held off, simply because, other than the yield, other numbers are not impressive. One has to have a great deal of faith in the future, indeed. Not to mention the significant sector risk now.
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
I have held this for a few years now and it is for the reason above that I tend to watch this stock more closely than others in my portfolio. I would prefer that the company cease dividend increases until it can bring its payout ratio in line.
Cheers
Cheers
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Down almost 10% today. Earnings release rescheduled. A little while ago it was declared not eligible for inclusion in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats.
Was on my watch list. Now isn't.
Was on my watch list. Now isn't.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
And I believe Emera owns 25% of Algonquin, so many people actually own a chunk indirectly.Shakespeare wrote:Down almost 10% today. Earnings release rescheduled. A little while ago it was declared not eligible for inclusion in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats.
Was on my watch list. Now isn't.
2 yen
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
A class action. Marvelous. Tomorrow should see some reply from the nice honest folks at Algonquin.Siskinds LLP Announces Investigation Into Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... 0306005732
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
The standard response goes something like "the action is without merit and will be defended vigorously."
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Well, that's pretty vague. I wonder what's really up?JaydoubleU wrote:A class action. Marvelous. Tomorrow should see some reply from the nice honest folks at Algonquin.Siskinds LLP Announces Investigation Into Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... 0306005732
2 yen
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
I wonder for whom Suskind LLP is acting on behalf of ... must be someone with deep pockets ... dare I say EMERA?
While the common shares dropped 9% the AQN Preferreds didn't move that much ...
While the common shares dropped 9% the AQN Preferreds didn't move that much ...
"We have two classes of forecaster: Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.” John Kenneth Galbraith
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Contingency 1/3 probably. They get $$$$ and the average shareholder gets ¢.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Looks like Emera owns 25% of a U.S. sub. Not sure what % of earnings that would represent. Will be interesting what the issue is. Wouldn't write too much into the law suit. Almost automatic when something like this happens. Probably a CFO out of work soon.AltaRed wrote: 24.4% per http://www.emera.com/en/home/affiliates ... ments.aspx
When I found out that their head office was in Oakville that raised a red flag for me. Executive probably live in big lakefront homes and don't want the hassle of driving into Toronto for work everyday. A little self serving?
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
I doubt the drop on Friday had anything to do with the lawsuit. I suspect it is a, sell on the bad gut feeling one gets when a company reschedules an earning release. The CEO probably saw the bad numbers from finance, had an emergency meeting and the CFO and him came up with an ingenious way to cook the books to ensure their 2014 bonus is paid in full. Should only take 3 weeks to rejig the numbers and bury the problem in the notes.
That is my gut feeling as to why these things get reschedule. Most other reasons are listed in the rescheduling news release.
That is my gut feeling as to why these things get reschedule. Most other reasons are listed in the rescheduling news release.
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Total speculation and negative cynical speculation at that. Surprised you would invest at all with this attitude? Anyway, I would think it is more likely an accounting problem (ie the right way to account for some complex transaction). A little surprised it surfaced so late in the process though. What I do know is that if this happened to me while I was working, I would have been fired shortly afterwards.OptsyEagle wrote:I doubt the drop on Friday had anything to do with the lawsuit. I suspect it is a, sell on the bad gut feeling one gets when a company reschedules an earning release. The CEO probably saw the bad numbers from finance, had an emergency meeting and the CFO and him came up with an ingenious way to cook the books to ensure their 2014 bonus is paid in full. Should only take 3 weeks to rejig the numbers and bury the problem in the notes.
That is my gut feeling as to why these things get reschedule. Most other reasons are listed in the rescheduling news release.
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
When you have been investing for as long as I have, you can become a little cynical. Just trying to give an explanation to Friday's drop...and todays. If there had been a legitimate reason for the delay of the earnings report, they would have explained it in the rescheduling news release, or at least by today.SQRT wrote:Total speculation and negative cynical speculation at that. Surprised you would invest at all with this attitude? Anyway, I would think it is more likely an accounting problem (ie the right way to account for some complex transaction). A little surprised it surfaced so late in the process though. What I do know is that if this happened to me while I was working, I would have been fired shortly afterwards.OptsyEagle wrote:I doubt the drop on Friday had anything to do with the lawsuit. I suspect it is a, sell on the bad gut feeling one gets when a company reschedules an earning release. The CEO probably saw the bad numbers from finance, had an emergency meeting and the CFO and him came up with an ingenious way to cook the books to ensure their 2014 bonus is paid in full. Should only take 3 weeks to rejig the numbers and bury the problem in the notes.
That is my gut feeling as to why these things get reschedule. Most other reasons are listed in the rescheduling news release.
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
I agree it hasn't been handled well to this point. These smaller companies just don't have the compliance/investor relations infrastructure bigger companies have and it seems to be showing here. I would doubt the actual issue is as serious as the market fears but who knows?
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
From late last night, Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Announces Plans to Issue 2014 Fourth Quarter and Year End Financial Results
The actual results have been issued, see Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Announces 2014 Fourth Quarter and Year End Financial Results. I've only occasionally looked at this company and the fundamentals have never given me reason to invest, so I'll leave it to others to weigh in on recent events and potential impacts to investors.Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. wrote:Shortly before the previously scheduled release of its 2014 financial results, APUC became aware of certain anonymous, unproven allegations regarding certain APUC personnel. APUC shared the allegations with its auditors, and delayed releasing its financial results in order to consider, together with the auditors, whether certain of the allegations which related to APUC's financial reporting and related practices could impact its financial results. This assessment, which was led by a committee of independent directors with the assistance of independent legal and accounting advisors, is now complete and APUC will be releasing its financial results, having determined that the allegations did not impact the financial results. The committee's investigation into the allegations which are not related to APUC's financial reporting and related practices is continuing to be dealt with in a confidential manner in accordance with APUC's complaint-handling policies.
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Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Well, that's interesting. Confirms the old saying of buy on rumour, sell on fact. Still there may be some management issues in the background here. Will watch for a change in senior exec ranks over next few months.
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Well, John Heinzl still hasn't forsaken his Algonquin. Seems to have worked out well for him.
A dividend darling that has held up well
A dividend darling that has held up well
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
It has performed fairly well over past 12 months despite the kerfuffle earlier in the year. Will probably buy more on Jan 4 for TFSA.Taggart wrote:Well, John Heinzl still hasn't forsaken his Algonquin. Seems to have worked out well for him.
A dividend darling that has held up well
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Hope Algonguin continues to work out well for you SQRT.SQRT wrote:It has performed fairly well over past 12 months despite the kerfuffle earlier in the year. Will probably buy more on Jan 4 for TFSA.Taggart wrote:Well, John Heinzl still hasn't forsaken his Algonquin. Seems to have worked out well for him.
A dividend darling that has held up well
Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
There seem to be differing views in AQN's payout ration. Heintzl thinks it's conservative, while other say it's over 100%. Does anyone know the right answer?
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
AQN is my largest holding. I bought it because I wanted exposure to diversified renewables and also water utilities--there are very few ways to play the water theme that aren't highly speculative. Bought more when they converted dividends to US dollars: I like that most of their assets are in the US; it gives me a good proxy play.
AQN pays dividends from FFO not EPS. In the last quarter, they reported adjusted net EPS of 0.05 and adjusted FFO of 0.22. Dividends were 0.13, so about a 60% payout ratio on this measure. Very impressive was the growth in just about every category: revenue of $189 million vs $151; adjusted EBITDA of $70.2 million vs $41.4.
Most encouraging is that they have a lot of projects coming on stream in the next few years, which should enable them to continue their target of 10% annual dividend growth.
Until the share price rises to a level I find "absurdly overvalued," or the Canadian dollar shows signs of returning to par (thus decreasing the dividends in CAD), I'll be holding AQN and enjoying the ride.
Edited for grammar
AQN pays dividends from FFO not EPS. In the last quarter, they reported adjusted net EPS of 0.05 and adjusted FFO of 0.22. Dividends were 0.13, so about a 60% payout ratio on this measure. Very impressive was the growth in just about every category: revenue of $189 million vs $151; adjusted EBITDA of $70.2 million vs $41.4.
Most encouraging is that they have a lot of projects coming on stream in the next few years, which should enable them to continue their target of 10% annual dividend growth.
Until the share price rises to a level I find "absurdly overvalued," or the Canadian dollar shows signs of returning to par (thus decreasing the dividends in CAD), I'll be holding AQN and enjoying the ride.
Edited for grammar
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Re: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (Symbol-AQN)
Not to be outdone by the big Fortis deal, Algonquin announces its own acquisition:
http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... llion-deal
The market appears to have disliked it a little less than the Fortis deal, but still AQN dropped .
But debt is cheap, and growth is dear. Haven't heard any analyst reactions yet to AQN's move.
But the same noises made to soothe investors: "this deal will support our dividend growth program, etc."
http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... llion-deal
The market appears to have disliked it a little less than the Fortis deal, but still AQN dropped .
But debt is cheap, and growth is dear. Haven't heard any analyst reactions yet to AQN's move.
But the same noises made to soothe investors: "this deal will support our dividend growth program, etc."