Canadian Banks

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SQRT
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by SQRT »

Lazy Ninja wrote: 21 Apr 2017 12:38
SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 06:08 Interesting article in the G&M on Thursday (Apr 20). They looked for names that consistently beat the TSX index. Came up with 10 names and 6 of them were the big banks.
What were the other 4? Just curious.
Saputo, Enbridge, Trancanada, and Sun life (barely).
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StuBee
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Re: Canadian Banks

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SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 13:16
Lazy Ninja wrote: 21 Apr 2017 12:38
SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 06:08 Interesting article in the G&M on Thursday (Apr 20). They looked for names that consistently beat the TSX index. Came up with 10 names and 6 of them were the big banks.
What were the other 4? Just curious.
Saputo, Enbridge, Trancanada, and Sun life (barely).
And I own them all :D . I guess that means that I can relax 8).

Actually, I have done no buying of equity for over a year. I occasionally scan the buy thread and have felt tempted to post that I have purchased a few pairs of pants. So far I have resisted the urge :lol: .

I do not need to buy because the dividends just keep on flowing in. I do not need to sell because... the dividends just keep on flowing in. How convenient!!!

BTW, I just finished doing my taxes. On combined (me and spouse) taxable income of 75K$, we paid 0.00$ of federal tax and 313$ of provincial tax for all of 2016!!! ( I have excluded RRQ contributions/RQAP contributions/Fonds service santé/Health tax the latter two totalling 300$).
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Re: Canadian Banks

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SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 13:16
Lazy Ninja wrote: 21 Apr 2017 12:38
SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 06:08 Interesting article in the G&M on Thursday (Apr 20). They looked for names that consistently beat the TSX index. Came up with 10 names and 6 of them were the big banks.
What were the other 4? Just curious.
Saputo, Enbridge, Trancanada, and Sun life (barely).
How did they miss CNR ?

On the 20 year chart it has beat the big banks and the others to boot. :thumbsup:
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by SQRT »

rhenderson wrote: 21 Apr 2017 16:49
SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 13:16
Lazy Ninja wrote: 21 Apr 2017 12:38

What were the other 4? Just curious.
Saputo, Enbridge, Trancanada, and Sun life (barely).
How did they miss CNR ?

On the 20 year chart it has beat the big banks and the others to boot. :thumbsup:
He said there were only 10 stocks that beat the TSX60 over 1,3,5,and 10 year periods. So consistency key over these 4 periods.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by rhenderson »

SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 18:37
rhenderson wrote: 21 Apr 2017 16:49
SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 13:16

Saputo, Enbridge, Trancanada, and Sun life (barely).
How did they miss CNR ?

On the 20 year chart it has beat the big banks and the others to boot. :thumbsup:
He said there were only 10 stocks that beat the TSX60 over 1,3,5,and 10 year periods. So consistency key over these 4 periods.
I don't know where he gets his data, charting at the TSX site shows that CNR handily beats the banks and the others for the 1,3,5 and 10 year periods.

As for SLF, I bought that pile of dogsh*t 10 years ago for $52 and today it's below $ 48. At least the index is close to where it was 10 years ago. :lol:
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by SQRT »

rhenderson wrote: 22 Apr 2017 12:31
SQRT wrote: 21 Apr 2017 18:37
rhenderson wrote: 21 Apr 2017 16:49

How did they miss CNR ?

On the 20 year chart it has beat the big banks and the others to boot. :thumbsup:
He said there were only 10 stocks that beat the TSX60 over 1,3,5,and 10 year periods. So consistency key over these 4 periods.
I don't know where he gets his data, charting at the TSX site shows that CNR handily beats the banks and the others for the 1,3,5 and 10 year periods.

As for SLF, I bought that pile of dogsh*t 10 years for $52 and today it's below $ 48. At least the index is close to where it was 10 years ago. :lol:
Not sure. Agree about SLF. I also bought ten years ago. Sold it 7 years ago. Don't like insurance co's. Poor management, really opaque F/S, low returns on capital, very long duration balance sheets.
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Re: Canadian Banks

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rhenderson wrote: 22 Apr 2017 12:31 As for SLF, I bought that pile of dogsh*t 10 years ago for $52 and today it's below $ 48. At least the index is close to where it was 10 years ago. :lol:
I bought SLF eight years ago and I'm up 77% (excluding dividends). I guess timing really is everything.
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Re: Canadian Banks

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rhenderson wrote: 22 Apr 2017 12:31
I don't know where he gets his data, charting at the TSX site shows that CNR handily beats the banks and the others for the 1,3,5 and 10 year periods.
According to the article, they used the following criteria:
... we looked for stocks that have outperformed the index (after factoring in dividends) over one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods. This rigorous test ensures stocks have done well over short and longer-term horizons - and stand a reasonable chance of ongoing success.
Charting on the TSX site shows price performance, but doesn't factor in the dividends. CNR has a small dividend compared to the banks, so I guess it's conceivable that CNR didn't beat the banks on total return (i.e. price appreciation plus dividends).
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by Jo Anne »

rhenderson wrote: 22 Apr 2017 12:31 As for SLF, I bought that pile of dogsh*t 10 years ago for $52 and today it's below $ 48. At least the index is close to where it was 10 years ago. :lol:
And I bought it 5 years ago for ~$22, then sold half a couple years ago for $45. I think it has turned out to be one of my better purchases.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by SQRT »

Arby wrote: 22 Apr 2017 19:46

Charting on the TSX site shows price performance, but doesn't factor in the dividends. CNR has a small dividend compared to the banks, so I guess it's conceivable that CNR didn't beat the banks on total return (i.e. price appreciation plus dividends).
Using Longrun Data which incorporates divs into a total return metric, over a 20 year period, CNR has indeed outperformed RY by about 5% per year. Very impressive. I can only surmise that it didn't make the list because if did not outperform the TSX60 for at least one of the 1/3/5/10 year periods.

What he didn't explain is whether he compared the various names to the TSX60 excluding that particular name. Probably should have but probably didn't. It could be important for some of the larger companies.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by ockham »

Jo Anne wrote: 22 Apr 2017 20:21
rhenderson wrote: 22 Apr 2017 12:31 As for SLF, I bought that pile of dogsh*t 10 years ago for $52 and today it's below $ 48. At least the index is close to where it was 10 years ago. :lol:
And I bought it 5 years ago for ~$22, then sold half a couple years ago for $45. I think it has turned out to be one of my better purchases.
I purchased on May 17, 2012. Have held. Up 120% excluding divs. (Mind you, SLF was purchased with the sale proceeds of MFC. Loss on MFC was 42%. Putting the two together leaves me with but a modest gain in the lifeco space. Overall, likely supportive of SQRT's thesis.)
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by Taggart »

Moody's downgrades credit ratings for Canada's Big 6 banks

Moody's says high debt levels and soaring house prices could be bad news for Canada's big banks, and has downgraded their credit rating as a result.
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Re: Canadian Banks

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Shouldn't be a surprise given the 'wild west' real estate market in a number of places. IMO, bank stock prices will continue their 2017 slide for some time to come yet and perhaps end the year lower than current levels even. They simply got ahead of themselves given the state of the Cdn economy and the likely net outflows of international investors from Canada. There is not much to like here now:
- Huge government deficits at various levels with nothing to show for it in GDP growth
- Anemic job and economic growth
- Likely targeted trade wars, or at least disruptions, with our oligarchy to the south
- Continued softness in most commodity prices
- Seemingly inability to get a single oil pipeline built
- Carbon taxes likely being wasted on misguided projects
- Resulting in continued deterioration in our currency

If you were an International investor, would you not pick up your marbles and leave?
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Re: Canadian Banks

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AltaRed wrote: 11 May 2017 11:31 Shouldn't be a surprise given the 'wild west' real estate market in a number of places. IMO, bank stock prices will continue their 2017 slide for some time to come yet and perhaps end the year lower than current levels even. They simply got ahead of themselves given the state of the Cdn economy and the likely net outflows of international investors from Canada. There is not much to like here now:
- Huge government deficits at various levels with nothing to show for it in GDP growth
- Anemic job and economic growth
- Likely targeted trade wars, or at least disruptions, with our oligarchy to the south
- Continued softness in most commodity prices
- Seemingly inability to get a single oil pipeline built
- Carbon taxes likely being wasted on misguided projects
- Resulting in continued deterioration in our currency

If you were an International investor, would you not pick up your marbles and leave?
Add in the BC election results. We have serious economic problems and it will effect our standard of living and we keep going in the wrong direction.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by rharvey199 »

there will always be issues facing the banks. always have been, always will be. whatever the issues they are facing the banks consistently find a way to make more money.
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AltaRed
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by AltaRed »

rharvey199 wrote: 11 May 2017 12:53 there will always be issues facing the banks. always have been, always will be. whatever the issues they are facing the banks consistently find a way to make more money.
Certainly, but that is not the point. The point is they were priced to perfection earlier this year....and no one should be expecting earnings growth or capital appreciation in the short term.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by randomwalker »

After the 2008 debacle, Lehman Bros,Bear Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Fannie Mae S&P, etc does anybody care/ believe the credit ratings S&P, Moody’s and Fitch are putting out? Big bank believers should go back and look at last year's spring budget and plans for how bank failures will be handled.
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Re: Canadian Banks

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AltaRed wrote: 11 May 2017 13:03
rharvey199 wrote: 11 May 2017 12:53 there will always be issues facing the banks. always have been, always will be. whatever the issues they are facing the banks consistently find a way to make more money.
Certainly, but that is not the point. The point is they were priced to perfection earlier this year....and no one should be expecting earnings growth or capital appreciation in the short term.
fair but cdn banks are long term holds, more like portfolio anchors, IMO. so if there isn't a short term catalyst then an investor gets paid the dividend to wait.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by AltaRed »

Indeed. No complaints here holding 4 of the big 5.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by SkaSka »

AltaRed wrote: 11 May 2017 22:12 Indeed. No complaints here holding 4 of the big 5.
If you don't mind me asking, which one of the 5 bothers you and why?
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by peter »

I'll bet it's the bank most likely to walk into a sharp object (CIBC).
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AltaRed
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by AltaRed »

I've never owned CIBC. Too much history running into sharp objects. Maybe doing that again with them chasing their US target....and who knows about their HCG adventure (though that one is petty cash in the overall scheme of things).

FWIW, I am over-committed to banks in general.Probably should own only 3 but hard to let go.

Added: I now see Peter has a sharp mind....
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by Taggart »

I own all six individual equities in the big banks, at different dollar amounts. Around them I own a few smaller amounts of what I would term experimental stocks in the financial sector. I don't do financial analysis so diversification works for me.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by scomac »

I've owned them all at one time or another, but never at the same time. I'm agnostic as to which ones to hold, preferring to go with that which is statistically cheapest at the time of purchase. That approach has never let me down.

They have all returned a similar rate-of-return over time. The most favoured does not and has not outperformed the sharp object bank. All have been quite agreeable. Having said that, I don't own any bank shares directly at this point in time, but that was a conscious decision on my part.
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Re: Canadian Banks

Post by Thegipper »

I own and prefer TD because of it's large US footprint. I have some RY as well. I chose RY because over time it has been the most successful at growing it's balance sheet. It is also a serious player in US capital markets.
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