Canadian Banks
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Re: Canadian Banks
i have TD, BNS, RY. Never considered CIBC. Should have picked up BMO years ago when it lagged but 3 banks is enough for me. they usually revert to the mean so laggards end up catching up to the others over time.
Re: Canadian Banks
My holdings represent 6.4% of my total portfolio, and I am missing CIBC and SCOTIA. No plans to change.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: Canadian Banks
Very conscious effort to exclude CIBC. Extremely overweight the banks and have been rewarded accordingly. No plans to change.
Re: Canadian Banks
Personally, I haven't even thought about selling the Canadian Banks in the portfolio. I'll probably just ride out the financial storm whenever it comes.
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Tempted to sell your bank stocks? Just stay put
Friday, May 12, 2017
DAVID BERMAN
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Tempted to sell your bank stocks? Just stay put
Friday, May 12, 2017
DAVID BERMAN
Re: Canadian Banks
Nor will I except as part of my overall withdrawal plan.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki The go-to place to bolster your financial freedom
- Shakespeare
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Re: Canadian Banks
I expect to add more in the forthcoming sale - whenever it is.
(I sold 2/3 of my BMO at 10% above today's price a couple of months back.)
(I sold 2/3 of my BMO at 10% above today's price a couple of months back.)
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Canadian Banks
Very conscious effort to include CIBC.
For personal banking, in my two decades+ of being in Canada, I've only had an account with them, before eventually transitioning to PCF (indirectly owned by CIBC).
My first stock purchase two decades ago was CM, followed by TD (I still own them both).
I've had shorter stints with NA, BMO and LB, and no longer hold them.
For all CIBC hating guys, may I quote from James Hymas:
I certainly do not consider CM shares as shit, though!Perhaps, as printed, my “sucker” epithet was too general – I certainly did not mean to suggest that all capital units were always bad all the time at all prices. If somebody offers to sell me capital units with an intrinsic value of $10 for a penny each, I’ll back up the truck! As I like to say, at the right price, even a bag of shit can be attractive: I buy fifteen of them every spring for my garden!
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” [Richard P. Feynman, Nobel prize winner]
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” [Richard P. Feynman, Nobel prize winner]
Re: Canadian Banks
Neither do I. Just that they seemed to run into more sharp objects. FWIW, I banked with CIBC for just over 40 years until considating into one bank. That said, I still have a dividend paying CC with them since early 1973!
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki The go-to place to bolster your financial freedom
Re: Canadian Banks
No CIBC held here. When in the accumulation phase, they were too hot to handle.
2 yen
2 yen
Re: Canadian Banks
CIBC became famous to me as the only one of 4 banks using our software who regularly needed our help to recover their accounts. It was a nice source of revenue. When they acquired Merryl Lynch, we became investment portfolio clients of WG. Later, we had an Aeroplan Visa. We were forced to move to TD under protest because they refused to recognize the WG assets!
We maintain WG so that DW will have someone she trusts to go to when she takes over the portfolio. It only holds 13 % of our assets. The rest is under my control.
We maintain WG so that DW will have someone she trusts to go to when she takes over the portfolio. It only holds 13 % of our assets. The rest is under my control.
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: Canadian Banks
Like many on line here I've been a long time holder of the Canadian bank stocks and have done well with them. Even today I'm still more or less comfortable with them if one looks at their fundamental valuations. That being said I sold out of all of them when they started to break down technically over March and into April. For me the Canadian banks are no longer buy and holds forever. I have attached a report by David MacDonald of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives which no doubt many here have already read. The report changed my opinion of the what seems to be a general view that that "Canadian banks are the soundest in the world," "that banking is done differently here in Canada," "that Canada is a model for the world when it comes to banking."
The Big Banks' Big Secret, Estimating government support for Canadian banks during the financial crisis
by David Macdonald, April 30, 2012
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites ... Secret.pdf
From where I stand the banking sides of Home Capital Group and Equitable Group are bank failures in everything but name and only because they are being propped up by government and big money. They are I believe the proverbial canaries in the coal mine.
I tripped across this article this morning,
Home Capital is a minor meltdown that’s left a major mark on Canada
by Theophilos Argitis and Kristine Owram, Bloomberg News, May 12, 2017
http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... -on-canada
The Big Banks' Big Secret, Estimating government support for Canadian banks during the financial crisis
by David Macdonald, April 30, 2012
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites ... Secret.pdf
From where I stand the banking sides of Home Capital Group and Equitable Group are bank failures in everything but name and only because they are being propped up by government and big money. They are I believe the proverbial canaries in the coal mine.
I tripped across this article this morning,
Home Capital is a minor meltdown that’s left a major mark on Canada
by Theophilos Argitis and Kristine Owram, Bloomberg News, May 12, 2017
http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... -on-canada
- Shakespeare
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Re: Canadian Banks
A source with a left-wing agenda. Add them to the Fraser Institute and divide by two to get a better opinion.I have attached a report by David MacDonald of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Canadian Banks
I agree. I am of the opinion that both are so severely tainted with their biases that they are opinion operations rather than objective analysis.Shakespeare wrote: ↑14 May 2017 09:10 A source with a left-wing agenda. Add them to the Fraser Institute and divide by two to get a better opinion.
My angst is way more focused on what the Bloomberg piece Randomwalker linked is saying. I think Canada is in dangerous territory with its heavy reliance on the housing boom and its knock-on effects. Our GDP is a house of cards and is perhaps why Bill Morneau is paying way too much attention to HCG's current woes. How far will Ottawa go to avoid a US style crisis? All that deficit spending in the world is not going to fix the upcoming 'stall' or worse 'fall' in GDP.
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki The go-to place to bolster your financial freedom
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Re: Canadian Banks
I agree with you with respect to left and right agendas. The question is, are David MacDonald's/ CCPA numbers correct? If MacDonald's numbers are right and report is correct then the Fraser Institute would be appalled and call it "corporate welfare" and a "delaying of the inevitable" both sentiments that I agree with.Shakespeare wrote: ↑14 May 2017 09:10A source with a left-wing agenda. Add them to the Fraser Institute and divide by two to get a better opinion.I have attached a report by David MacDonald of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
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Re: Canadian Banks
Agreed. It seems all that is left to keep the economic balls in the air are increased debts and deficits by both governments of all political stripes I might add and by individuals. That and interest rate manipulation. I've attached a fun link which tracks the amount of deficit spending done annually and the political party in power since 1962. I think the conclusion one might draw is there is no difference between the two major parties when it comes to deficit spending. As attributed to Richard Nixon "We are all Keynesians now."AltaRed wrote: ↑14 May 2017 09:54I agree. I am of the opinion that both are so severely tainted with their biases that they are opinion operations rather than objective analysis.Shakespeare wrote: ↑14 May 2017 09:10 A source with a left-wing agenda. Add them to the Fraser Institute and divide by two to get a better opinion.
My angst is way more focused on what the Bloomberg piece Randomwalker linked is saying. I think Canada is in dangerous territory with its heavy reliance on the housing boom and its knock-on effects. Our GDP is a house of cards and is perhaps why Bill Morneau is paying way too much attention to HCG's current woes. How far will Ottawa go to avoid a US style crisis? All that deficit spending in the world is not going to fix the upcoming 'stall' or worse 'fall' in GDP.
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/ca ... index.html
Last edited by randomwalker on 14 May 2017 12:42, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Canadian Banks
and we are electing governments that are anti business and anti oil because of their faith in the politics of climate change. The whole thing adds up to witch's brew. What is in the brew besides this. 1 USA protectionism, 2.provincal and federal government debt and deficit 3 record levels of individual debt 4 the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver .
Re: Canadian Banks
Well since my pension which I have been drawing since 1992 in non-COLA, I have been pleased with the efforts to control inflation. Now I am ready for some inflation to burst some bubbles. That should create some new opportunities for those of us with money to invest?
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: Canadian Banks
Agree they are not sh?t. Total return over last 20 years is 10.2% per year CAGR. Same stat for TD is 13.6%. 3.4% difference compounded over 20 yeas is quite a bit. When I was working (retired in 2006), they really had a string of unimpressive CEOs. Particularly Al Flood and John Hunkin. CEO succession was handled very poorly. Got to know their senior execs fairly well over this period.
If there was a problem ii always seemed worse at CIBC. They seemed to have worked hard to de -risk their bank, but this has resulted in missed growth opportunities, especially in US. They were poor executors and had an investment banker's approach to business. Future, who knows, but I have the other banks and need a stock like CM for my gambits.
Re: Canadian Banks
IN 1976 CM was the second largest Canadian bank. Over the years they have led the charge when things went bad. Back in the 1970's they lost a pile of money with bad loans in Argentina, if i recall they had a pile of bad loans to oil companies , then they lost billions with Enron and they were big losers with sub-prime mortgages . They have been a poorly managed operation. They were in USA investment banking and they got out of that. They tried some retail banking and that went bad. I wouldn't invest anything with them. I think they have a bad culture and it is hard to shake it.SQRT wrote: ↑15 May 2017 11:37Agree they are not sh?t. Total return over last 20 years is 10.2% per year CAGR. Same stat for TD is 13.6%. 3.4% difference compounded over 20 yeas is quite a bit. When I was working (retired in 2006), they really had a string of unimpressive CEOs. Particularly Al Flood and John Hunkin. CEO succession was handled very poorly. Got to know their senior execs fairly well over this period.
If there was a problem ii always seemed worse at CIBC. They seemed to have worked hard to de -risk their bank, but this has resulted in missed growth opportunities, especially in US. They were poor executors and had an investment banker's approach to business. Future, who knows, but I have the other banks and need a stock like CM for my gambits.
Re: Canadian Banks
When I retired in 1992, a number of my buddies who also retired went to work for the banks. CIBC, TD and Royal. I knew Tony Comper of BMO and I was impressed when one of my buddies was killed in an avalanche in The Bugaboos and Tony lined up on Mount Pleasant for the visitation along with the rest of us!
I also knew Ed Clark of Canada Trust and was both impressed and then disappointed with his performance at TD.
I agree with Adrian that it is not your judgement on a bank but its stock performance that counts.
I also knew Ed Clark of Canada Trust and was both impressed and then disappointed with his performance at TD.
I agree with Adrian that it is not your judgement on a bank but its stock performance that counts.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: Canadian Banks
8 years ago or so, BMO was yielding over 10%, not CM.
There was serious talk that BMO would cut its dividend.
To each their own, that's what makes it a market.
From a current commercial: CIBC was the first to introduce an ATM in Canada.
What goes up, must come down... (and sometimes viceversa)
There was serious talk that BMO would cut its dividend.
To each their own, that's what makes it a market.
From a current commercial: CIBC was the first to introduce an ATM in Canada.
What goes up, must come down... (and sometimes viceversa)
finiki, the Canadian financial wiki
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” [Richard P. Feynman, Nobel prize winner]
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” [Richard P. Feynman, Nobel prize winner]
Re: Canadian Banks
‘No rotting carcass of bad loans’: Why now might be a good time to buy Canadian banks
http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... dian-banks
http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... dian-banks
Re: Canadian Banks
I wonder about the lifecos? Floods, longevity, shaky real estate holdings?
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: Canadian Banks
According to this link the commercial is stating a mistruth.
http://esask.uregina.ca/entry/automated ... hines.html
I don't hold CM but wished I purchased it when it was the highest yielder of the group. Historically, they all take turns leading and lagging. I try to rotate in and out. Currently I hold BMO, RY, CWB and BNS. Never had a chance to get TD at what I felt was a fair price.
Cheers
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Re: Canadian Banks
Speaking about Home Capital Group the head of TD Asset Management’s core Canadian equity team Mike O’Brien said “The difference between this situation and what we saw in 2008 is there isn’t a rotting carcass of bad loans or poor-quality credit underneath all that...” Well maybe? Not to doubt for a moment the head of TD Asset Management's view on the subject but I think if I was the writer I might have solicited more than one opinion or at least one at arms length for one of the institutions that now "might be a good time to buy." A question I would have asked is, would the banks be as free with their mortgage lending without the backstop of CMHC? If the answer is "no" then is such lending responsible? The banks seem to be in a "heads we win tails we don't lose" position.ig17 wrote: ↑16 May 2017 08:44 ‘No rotting carcass of bad loans’: Why now might be a good time to buy Canadian banks
http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... dian-banks
As an aside I doubt Legg Mason's Bill Miller (The Man Who Beats the S&P) thought he had any "rotting carcasses" in his Value Trust mutual fund until 2008 arrived
https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Beats-In ... 0470832584