Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

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schmuck
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by schmuck »

schmuck wrote:Great stuff A.Red.
It would be interesting to know which in the group is exposed to the greatest risk...unfortunately, beyond my level op patience and competence to find out. Much easier to check the crazy performance over the last month:
Key +18.0%
IPL +9.9%
ALA +7.8%
PPL +7.2%

Sure, Key had a blowout quarter, but up 18%??
I sold it a couple of days ago when the yield was down to 2.8%, less than half of what it was when I bought it.
I trimmed IPL by a third almost a year ago, but still my largest overall holding.

It was a wild ride up for those stocks to their peak in late August, only to be outdone by the ride down.
Here's how much they were down this morning from their recent peak:
Key -16.3%
IPL -18.9% (not counting the crazy drop on Thursday)
ALA -19.3%
PPL -20.2%
And the big boys haven't stood up any better:
TRP -21.2%
ENB -15.4%

Aside from a bit of IPL and ALA, I haven't done any serious buying yet but it's starting to look tempting.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Revisiting this thread, it is amazing to see how far these midstream entities have fallen. I know I own quite a lot of energy infrastructure, probably too much, but I find myself sniffing around in this space for possible bargains.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by AltaRed »

JaydoubleU wrote: 11 Dec 2017 08:49 Revisiting this thread, it is amazing to see how far these midstream entities have fallen. I know I own quite a lot of energy infrastructure, probably too much, but I find myself sniffing around in this space for possible bargains.
Those peak valuations were built on growth momentum. When the momentum is lost, valuations come back to earth. I'd suggest today's valuations are, more or less, the 'new normal' in the energy space.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

I'd suggest today's valuations are, more or less, the 'new normal' in the energy space.
I guess my question would be, does owning KEY provide greater diversification if I already own ENB,TRP, PPL, ALA, ENF? Or am I just overweighting the same stressed sector.

Oil is a tough one. Although you know I approve of companies getting in on the flow of funds into renewables, I still don't see us getting rid of oil and gas anytime soon, if ever. Minus 17 this morning in Ottawa, and I have my doubts about the capacity of solar panels or windmills to heat all these homes and run all these cars, trucks, trains, etc. But this is an old debate, isn't it.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by AltaRed »

JaydoubleU wrote: 11 Dec 2017 11:42 I guess my question would be, does owning KEY provide greater diversification if I already own ENB,TRP, PPL, ALA, ENF? Or am I just overweighting the same stressed sector.
In my opinion, ALA and PPL already do some of the same thing. I wouldn't own all 3.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

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In my opinion, ALA and PPL already do some of the same thing. I wouldn't own all 3.
Worth listening to. Txs.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

In light of the plunge in price over the latest results, I had another look at the quarterly report.

http://www.keyera.com/titanweb/keyera/w ... -Y2ty2ZNok

Aside from the Marketing segment results being the same for 3 and 9 months (?), what I take away is a mixed bag of winning and losing sectors. The over all debt appears to have climbed as well. The question is, do these results warrant the rout over the last few days? If this is a new trend (I haven't checked for multi-year trends) then maybe the sell off is justified. If not, then perhaps this is an over reaction.

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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

Could the proposed bitumen pucks pose a threat to Keyera's diluent business? This project won't be up and running for 2 years and, as outlined, would be rather small.

The pucks:

https://business.financialpost.com/comm ... ucks-plant

Keyera's diluent business.

http://www.keyera.com/titanweb/keyera/w ... 0Sheet.pdf

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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

And now this possible threat to Keyera's diluent business:

https://business.financialpost.com/comm ... om-alberta

These upgrading plants will reduce the need for diluent.

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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by AltaRed »

I am away so not willing to look at Keyera's operations now, but I am guessing Keyera is mostly into NGL processing and less so 'pentanes plus' that is used for diluent. Dilbit is not going away any time soon.

FWIW, Columba Yeung is an old Shell refinery type engineer that has been on the patch forever.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

AltaRed wrote: 23 Jan 2019 05:53 I am away so not willing to look at Keyera's operations now, but I am guessing Keyera is mostly into NGL processing and less so 'pentanes plus' that is used for diluent. Dilbit is not going away any time soon.

FWIW, Columba Yeung is an old Shell refinery type engineer that has been on the patch forever.
After posting these articles it occurred to me that even if the diluent business dries up, Keyera could probably just become a leaner company. Also, competition might mean that diluent producers in the U.S. will have to reduce their prices - making their product more appealing. Another piece not mentioned is that I assume there would be a cost to bitumen producers to have their product go through the new upgraders Notley is talking about. Interesting times in that area of the oil patch.

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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Well, it's a leaner company today. JC, what happened to KEY, off 4.64%, way more than other energy stocks. Oil was down only 1.17%.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by Thegipper »

JaydoubleU wrote: 11 Dec 2017 12:31
In my opinion, ALA and PPL already do some of the same thing. I wouldn't own all 3.
Worth listening to. Txs.
by almost every measure PPL is a lot stronger operation than ALA.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

by almost every measure PPL is a lot stronger operation than ALA.
Well, ALA fumbled the ball and lost the game, IMO. I sold it months ago at a loss.

But I thought this thread was about KEY?
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by Thegipper »

JaydoubleU wrote: 29 Jan 2019 09:13
by almost every measure PPL is a lot stronger operation than ALA.
Well, ALA fumbled the ball and lost the game, IMO. I sold it months ago at a loss.

But I thought this thread was about KEY?
You are right. I just responding to your post. Not sure what happened seems it wondered into a general discussion into the main players in this sector.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Fair enough. Hard to discuss any one of them in a vacuum.

Perhaps we should move the discussion to pipelines:

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=114448&p=623369&hi ... es#p623369

(BTW, how do you get the link to become THE WORD pipelines?? Sorry, tech challenged here)
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by adrian2 »

[url=viewtopic.php?f=33&t=114448&p=623369&hi ... es#p623369]pipelines[/url]

In this post I have intentionally "Disabled BBCode", see next post for the same post content with the default.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

[url=viewtopic.php?f=33&t=114448&p=623369&hi ... es#p623369pipelines[/url]

I don't seem to be getting it. Thanks for the help--I'll go to the sandbox!
Last edited by JaydoubleU on 30 Jan 2019 08:51, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

JaydoubleU wrote: 30 Jan 2019 08:34 viewtopic.php?f=33&t=114448&p=623369&hi ... 9pipelines

I don't seem to be getting it :oops:
PM sent. Our Testing Sandbox is a good place to try on the board's features.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

I think I got it now! Moderator, please remove my posts off the topic of Keyera. Thanks, Adrian and PM
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Vindication at last.

Bought KEY last year and it quickly fell 10%, which was not that much fun. And KEY has lagged the recovery in infrastructure stocks. Until today. With a solid year-end report issued yesterday evening, KEY has come flying out of the gate, up almost 9% at the moment :D

https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?ne ... symbol=KEY

Glad I didn't chicken out and sell.
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Re: Keyera (Symbol KEY, was KEY.UN)

Post by Spidey »

I'm even better off. Bought at an average of $26.83. Up almost 16% not including dividends in a few months. However, I'll avoid talking too much about my, so far, less stellar choices such as Corby.
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