Potash (POT)

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Shakespeare
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Shakespeare »

AltaRed wrote:
BRIAN5000 wrote:I'm not sure if anyone is saying its cheap certainly not myself.
I think it is perhaps more a question of whether, from current levels, this stock might provide, on average, 6-8% total return in the future. If one wants only to buy 'cheap', then I'd' say that would be more like a $25-30 stock price, perhaps yet to come in a temporary stumble, or maybe not.
Well, here's the 30. :wink:
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Descartes »

Might want to check any outstanding limit orders before the markets open today.
Indeed. I backed out of this the day after my limit order was triggered at 39.01. Saved myself some savaging. The question now is when or if to buy back in...
...most likely not in the foreseeable future based on this news.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by AltaRed »

Shakespeare wrote:Well, here's the 30. :wink:
An ill timed purchase to be sure, but at 1% of holdings, not much more than an irritant like a grain of sand in the sole of a shoe. That said, it will play out over time as marginal producers throw in the towel. In the oil industry, we used to say such pricing events were necessary from time to time to send the fair weather boys home.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Norbert Schlenker »

Just last Saturday, AltaRed wrote:
BRIAN5000 wrote:I'm not sure if anyone is saying its cheap certainly not myself.
I think it is perhaps more a question of whether, from current levels, this stock might provide, on average, 6-8% total return in the future. If one wants only to buy 'cheap', then I'd' say that would be more like a $25-30 stock price, perhaps yet to come in a temporary stumble, or maybe not.
That didn't take long!
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by scomac »

Norbert Schlenker wrote:
Just last Saturday, AltaRed wrote:
BRIAN5000 wrote:I'm not sure if anyone is saying its cheap certainly not myself.
I think it is perhaps more a question of whether, from current levels, this stock might provide, on average, 6-8% total return in the future. If one wants only to buy 'cheap', then I'd' say that would be more like a $25-30 stock price, perhaps yet to come in a temporary stumble, or maybe not.
That didn't take long!
We have a Meredith Whitney amongst us! Perhaps you should hang out a shingle, AR? :twisted:
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by schmuck »

Took a chance and bought some POT this morning because I cannot see any reason for Uralkali to break the agreement with Belarus just to gain market share at the cost $100 per ton on the free market.
This could be nothing more than a ploy by Putin to gain the upper hand in the ongoing dispute with Belarus over payments for oil and gas that needs to cross Belarus to reach Europe. There is too much money at stake for this not to get resolved somehow.
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Shakespeare
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Shakespeare »

Well, here's a 5-year chart from TMX:
pot5.png
pot5.png (7.05 KiB) Viewed 2590 times
Can't really say why I would buy it - except as a trade.

Good luck with that.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by BRIAN5000 »

Must get up earlier in the morning to catch these worms.

Got up, saw the price, read some of the news, bought another 100 shares at $31.00, Ho-Hum, just another day in the market.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by AltaRed »

scomac wrote:We have a Meredith Whitney amongst us! Perhaps you should hang out a shingle, AR? :twisted:
Sorry, I don't have her looks. But I suspect you both probably surmised my $25-30 comment was mostly based on the 5 year chart. It will creep back but it will now likely take a long time to become a 6-8% CAPR total return stock. That has been the history of commodity stocks. Shakes is right if he sees no need to have commodity/resource stocks in his portfolio.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by cashinstinct »

anyone buying at these levels?

I am interested in the long term prospects.

Potash was a big thing many years ago, seems like the fame / glory is over, now a boring stock?
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Transformer »

I have been buying. Nice dividend, dominant industry position, world had more mouths to feed every year.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Londoncalling »

I added to my position this week at $26.50 US bringing allocation up to 5.8% of equity and my 6th largest holding.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Thegipper »

I know resource stocks have been bad. Just looking. It is the low cost producer and controls 25% of the market and pays a dividend just short of 9%. If I was going to buy something in materials it looks not bad. What do you think?
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by chufinora »

Thegipper wrote:I know resource stocks have been bad. Just looking. It is the low cost producer and controls 25% of the market and pays a dividend just short of 9%. If I was going to buy something in materials it looks not bad. What do you think?

I have owned POT for a couple of years (Just after the cartel collapsed), in hindsight I overpaid and I am in deep red on this one. However I am not planning to sell my holding. The long term demand for Potash is going to be there, and as one of biggest suppliers Potash is not going away as a supplier.

There is a lot of talk of a dividend cut, they have cash flow to cover dividends, but their EPS is pretty much the same as the dividend currently.

If you do buy be aware they pay their dividends in $US.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by kumquat »

Well, I can't stand it any longer. Placed a limit order that will produce a >10% dividend if filled.
I don't intend to offend anyone, that part is just a bonus.

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Shakespeare
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Shakespeare »

That's if the dividend holds. Will it?
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Taggart »

Globeadvisor January 21, 2016

"The operating expense and capital expense reductions resulting from the closure of its New Brunswick operations will not be enough to support the dividend of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. in the current fertilizer pricing environment, CIBC World Markets analyst Jacob Bout said."
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by kumquat »

Shakespeare wrote:That's if the dividend holds. Will it?
Good question. I'd guess slightly above 50/50, but I have a bit of prejudice (I was a POT employee for 20+ years and retired early because of options). If not, I'd be happy at 6% and think it's a good long term hold.
I don't intend to offend anyone, that part is just a bonus.

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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Taggart »

Taggart wrote:Globeadvisor January 21, 2016

"The operating expense and capital expense reductions resulting from the closure of its New Brunswick operations will not be enough to support the dividend of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. in the current fertilizer pricing environment, CIBC World Markets analyst Jacob Bout said."
About the only thing I follow analysts on for future stock predictions is potential dividend cuts. They aren't always right, but the majority of the time I've noticed they seem to be.

As Jay posted in the cuts thread:

PotashCorp slashes dividend 34 per cent
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by FinEcon »

Just thought I would rekindle the 6 year anniversary of BHP's $40B US offer that was nixed because of political pressure and keep our thinking vigilant when it comes to shareholder rights vs political chicanery. BTW, today's market cap of this incredible lousy business is shy of $14B US, no surprise since book value per share has fallen approx 20% since the end of 2012. How do you shareholders feel about subsidizing SK union workers as your equity dwindles?
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AltaRed
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by AltaRed »

Stock prices have been going down as the commodity price craters. It probably has not yet bottomed given some media reports (if true) of spot prices as low as $150/ton in recent days.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/potassiu ... spot_price

I am guessing mines will cut back and/or shut down when cash flow/ton becomes negative. Breakeven wil be when the rubber hits the road.

P.S. BHP is probably kissing Wall's (and Harper's) ass right now from saving them from a very stupid purchase. If BHP had purchased POT, who knows whether Canadian mines would still be producing.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Agrium and PotashCorp to Combine in Merger of Equals to Create a World-Class Integrated Global Supplier of Crop Inputs wrote:The transaction will be implemented by way of a plan of arrangement under the Canada Business Corporations Act. It is expected to close during mid-2017, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including receipt of regulatory approvals, Canadian court approval, and approval by the shareholders of both companies.
Shareholder approval is done.

PotashCorp Shareholders Overwhelmingly Approve Merger of Equals with Agrium
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) (TSX: POT) (NYSE: POT) announced that its shareholders overwhelmingly voted to approve the company's proposed merger of equals with Agrium Inc. (TSX: AGU) (NYSE: AGU) at the Special Meeting of PotashCorp shareholders that was held today.

More than 99 percent of the shares voted at the meeting were voted in favor of the merger, with approximately 494 million, or 59 percent, of PotashCorp's outstanding shares voted at the meeting.
Agrium Securityholders Overwhelmingly Approve Merger of Equals with PotashCorp
Agrium Inc. (TSX: AGU) (NYSE: AGU) announced that its securityholders overwhelmingly voted to approve the company's proposed merger of equals with Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) (TSX: POT) (NYSE: POT) at the Special Meeting of Agrium securityholders that was held today.
Approximately 98 percent of the shares and voting options voted at the meeting were voted in favour of the merger. More than 108 million, or over 78 percent, of Agrium's outstanding shares and voting options were voted at the meeting.
From my reading of the Joint Information Circular, next up is Court Approval, expected to be made on November 7, 2016. That would leave the various regulatory approvals as the last remaining hurdle(s).
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Court approval is completed -- Agrium and PotashCorp Provide Update on Approvals for Proposed Merger of Equals
Agrium Inc. (TSX: AGU) (NYSE: AGU) and Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) (TSX: POT) (NYSE: POT) advised that the Ontario Superior Court of Justice has issued a final order approving their merger of equals transaction to be implemented by way of a plan of arrangement under the Canada Business Corporations Act. As previously announced, shareholders of both companies overwhelmingly voted to approve the proposed merger of equals.

The companies have made good progress with respect to making all required regulatory filings and as expected, have received a supplemental information request from the Canadian Competition Bureau and a second request from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission on November 2, 2016. Agrium and PotashCorp are working through the regulatory process as planned and continue to expect the transaction to close mid-2017, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including receipt of regulatory approvals.
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

I'm a current shareholder of POT in a taxable account and still like the sector and the business. I'm sitting on a tax-loss harvesting opportunity with this name and I'm thinking a simple strategy would be to sell POT and replace it with Agrium (AGU) on the assumption that their merger will proceed as planned in mid-2017. I don't believe this runs afoul of the superficial loss rules. The dividend yield on AGU (3.5%) is slightly better than POT (2.5), so there is an income gain as well.

Am I missing something here?
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Re: Potash (POT)

Post by Descartes »

The relevant text is here:
"Identical properties", for the purposes of subsection 47(1), the
definition of "superficial loss" in section 54 of the Act and subsection 26(8)
of the ITAR (and subject to the provisions referred to in paragraph 5 and
paragraphs 9 to 11), are properties which are the same in all material
respects, so that a prospective buyer would not have a preference for one as
opposed to another. To determine whether properties are identical, it is
necessary to compare the inherent qualities or elements which give each
property its identity. Such a determination is a question of fact which must
be decided on the basis of the relevant details in each situation.
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pub/tp/it387 ... olid-e.txt

You clearly have an argument that they are not identical since they are and will be entirely different companies up to (and perhaps beyond) mid 2017 and you are purchasing, I presume, within the next 30 days.

..By the way, most of those finiki links on that page are obsolete and broken.
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