What did you buy? What might you buy? (2008)

Discuss your favourite picks, broker, and trading or investment style.
User avatar
scomac
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 7788
Joined: 19 Feb 2005 09:47
Location: The Gateway to Wine Country

Post by scomac »

More tax loss harvesting has resulted in the following buys:

POW@$19.63 and RY@$33.17

These were funded by sales of POW.PR.C@$18.44 and BMO@$33.00 -- not nearly as elegant as Norbert's manouver yesterday, but it will do the trick at a reasonable wash for capital, but lower current income. I will continue to do more of this over the course of the next while in an effort to book as many losses as I can while maintaining a similar market exposure.
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
User avatar
Mike Schimek
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 2698
Joined: 04 Nov 2007 18:25
Location: Montreal, Quebec

Post by Mike Schimek »

Picked up some Valero @ 19.08 today

Did some research on this one a while back, been keeping an eye on it ever since and have owned it off and on.

* Largest refiner in the U.S.

* As mentioned in other posts, their margins are affected by demand for their product (gas, oil derivatives), not by the price of a barrel of oil

* Gas demand in the U.S. came in relatively flat year over year according to this week's report, as opposed to showing yoy decreases in prior weeks, indicating to me that consumers are starting to use more gas because of the low price and that demand destruction is starting to heal. I'm in the camp that thinks the price of oil isn't going to rocket back up anytime soon, if correct this means cheap gas is here for a while, and demand for gas in the U.S. might creep back up.

* Margins for gas might have improved somewhat for refiners, as I can see that the price at the pump didn't fall quite as much as it should have compared to the price of oil (past 2-3 weeks observation)

* Valero has been profitable right through the crisis.


All that being said, I was a bit late to the party on this one, this stock was trading at 15.00 as recently as last week. I had the choice to shy away, or grit my teeth on that point in light of the positive recent developments in gas demand.
Research until your head hurts then scream Banzai!!! and charge fearlessly to victory or death!
User avatar
Shakespeare
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 23396
Joined: 15 Feb 2005 23:25
Location: Calgary, AB

Post by Shakespeare »

100 BCE at $21.31. Tippie-toe. :wink:
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
User avatar
Yukon Maiden
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 873
Joined: 14 Dec 2006 12:39
Location: Arctic Circle

Post by Yukon Maiden »

Yukon Maiden wrote:
Yukon Maiden wrote:I picked up 1500 shares of TCK.B at $4.76 when it had the big dip this morning.
Another 1000 just now at $4.17.
Sold 1000 at $5.46 today. If it goes back to the 4's, I will likely buy them back. I am still holding 1500 shares. What a roller-coaster ride this stock has been the past few weeks.
" I reject you reality, and substitute my own!"-Mythbusters
User avatar
Yukon Maiden
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 873
Joined: 14 Dec 2006 12:39
Location: Arctic Circle

Post by Yukon Maiden »

I am keeping my eye on RY. I am very tempted to add to my position at $32-$33.
" I reject you reality, and substitute my own!"-Mythbusters
Taggart
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 6893
Joined: 05 Dec 2005 07:34

Post by Taggart »

Put in an order early this morning to buy Saputo (SAP) at $21.20. Shares actually bought at $21.17. I've been trying for a few weeks now to buy it at it's low for the year. I didn't think it would be so difficult to buy in a bear market. Guess I'm too picky about what I pay.
Locke
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 120
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 17:11

Post by Locke »

TD @ 40 very happy about this purchase
BNS @ 30 DCA'ing, disappointed with them

Getting too heavy in financial and bit too deep into margin
2 yen
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4116
Joined: 09 Apr 2005 09:15

Post by 2 yen »

I've just concluded that until we get into the recession proper, i.e. a few querters under our belt, it's better to hold off the banks. They will probably go much lower. Nothing scientific, just logical if the recession drags on. Looking for RY at $27, BNS at $25, TD at $35.
Locke
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 120
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 17:11

Post by Locke »

I guess I am a bit more optimistic than you.

That's a 50% haircut from their highs, I guess it's possible. At the same time, I'm of the opinion that most of if not all the bad news has been priced in. Then again the problem with value investing, is that you tend to be too early.

The yields are drawing me in. Dividend tax credit and interest deductibility and all that.

I guess we'll see who's more accurate as time goes along though I'm already part wrong with my earlier purchases of BNS.
User avatar
Peculiar_Investor
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 13267
Joined: 01 Mar 2005 14:52
Location: Calgary
Contact:

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Locke wrote:I guess I am a bit more optimistic than you.

That's a 50% haircut from their highs, I guess it's possible. At the same time, I'm of the opinion that most of if not all the bad news has been priced in. Then again the problem with value investing, is that you tend to be too early.

The yields are drawing me in. Dividend tax credit and interest deductibility and all that.

I guess we'll see who's more accurate as time goes along though I'm already part wrong with my earlier purchases of BNS.
I'm an optimist also, but as a contrarian, I'm beginning to get a bit worried that everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. While I value being paid a dividend to wait for capital appreciation, I cannot help but wonder, who is on the selling side of the transaction? If everyone is chasing the dividend payers, is this a good thing?

A recent book that I've read, The Only Three Questions That Count by Ken Fischer springs to mind here. The question are:

Q1: What do you believe that is actually false?
Q2: What can you fathom that others find unfathomable?
Q3: What the heck is my brain doing to blindside me?

I'm still working on my answers to all three questions.
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.

Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
JaydoubleU
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 3103
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 22:52

Post by JaydoubleU »

who is on the selling side of the transaction?
Tax loss harvesting, for one. Also, large mutual fund redemptions force managers to sell regardless of price.
If everyone is chasing the dividend payers, is this a good thing?
If everyone were chasing the dividend payers, the prices would be rising, no? I think people on this forum are perhaps not representative of the wider public, who are more conservative and cautious. Just some guesses.

Personally, I invest with the assumption that things will eventually work themselves out, maybe even sooner than many expect; that we are in the midst of a cycle of sorts. I am not sure if this optimism is the wisdom of experience or blind naivety. Only time will tell, but by then I'll either be wealthly, or broke.
Taggart
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 6893
Joined: 05 Dec 2005 07:34

Post by Taggart »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: I'm an optimist also, but as a contrarian, I'm beginning to get a bit worried that everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. While I value being paid a dividend to wait for capital appreciation, I cannot help but wonder, who is on the selling side of the transaction? If everyone is chasing the dividend payers, is this a good thing?
Not everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. I think the vast majority of people out there have sold and don't want to touch equities again...or they're waiting for the right moment to jump back in after everything looks safe and secure, i.e. when stock fundamentals are expensive and dividend yields have gone down. Investing for dividend yield is not exactly a new thing. Just taking the big five Canadian banks for example, they all started paying their first dividends in the 1800's. In fact BMO stretches as far back as 1829.
Sensei
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 1922
Joined: 07 Mar 2008 21:22
Location: Tokyo

Post by Sensei »

Hi,

You might get the impression from reading this forum that dividend investing is popular. I tend to think it is rather rare since it is counter-intuitive to the media's representation of stock investing as a method of accumulating capital gains. I note also that the number of books on dividend investing is rather few. I have one that is worth reading and another one that is not bad. OTOH, before I got into DI, I accumulated forty or fifty on value, momentum, day-trading or other forms of investing. It lacks the excitement of the popular illusion of stock investing. It is about as far as you can get from Chipottle sizzles up 300% as any investment strategy I know.

Just try bringing it up with your friends over a beer. Try explaining that the dividend rate tends to go up with many stocks even if the mv is down. What? Huh? The subject will be quickly changed and you might see some surreptitious rolling of eyes. :roll: The main reason I post to this forum is cause there's no one else to talk to and I know a lot of people who would do well to put some money aside even in a mutual fund! That's about how many people are interested in it.

Cheers
User avatar
skepticus
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 999
Joined: 21 Jul 2006 06:54

Post by skepticus »

Locke wrote:...though I'm already part wrong with my earlier purchases of BNS.
How so ?
User avatar
Peculiar_Investor
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 13267
Joined: 01 Mar 2005 14:52
Location: Calgary
Contact:

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Taggart wrote:
Peculiar_Investor wrote: I'm an optimist also, but as a contrarian, I'm beginning to get a bit worried that everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. While I value being paid a dividend to wait for capital appreciation, I cannot help but wonder, who is on the selling side of the transaction? If everyone is chasing the dividend payers, is this a good thing?
Not everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. I think the vast majority of people out there have sold and don't want to touch equities again...or they're waiting for the right moment to jump back in after everything looks safe and secure, i.e. when stock fundamentals are expensive and dividend yields have gone down. Investing for dividend yield is not exactly a new thing. Just taking the big five Canadian banks for example, they all started paying their first dividends in the 1800's. In fact BMO stretches as far back as 1829.
I agree with the points you are making. I was referring to the noticeable increase in the financial press about dividend stocks as a safe haven in the financial storm. It seems that articles about dividend payers are popular again. I recall that back a few years about, when the average dividend yield was much smaller, the financial press was getting close to calling for the death of dividend yield as a strategy, replaced by stock buybacks.

My antenna tends to watch for popular-ism in the financial press as a contrarian signal.
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki New editors wanted and welcomed, please help collaborate and improve the wiki.

Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
Taggart
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 6893
Joined: 05 Dec 2005 07:34

Post by Taggart »

Peculiar_Investor wrote:
Taggart wrote:
Peculiar_Investor wrote: I'm an optimist also, but as a contrarian, I'm beginning to get a bit worried that everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. While I value being paid a dividend to wait for capital appreciation, I cannot help but wonder, who is on the selling side of the transaction? If everyone is chasing the dividend payers, is this a good thing?
Not everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. I think the vast majority of people out there have sold and don't want to touch equities again...or they're waiting for the right moment to jump back in after everything looks safe and secure, i.e. when stock fundamentals are expensive and dividend yields have gone down. Investing for dividend yield is not exactly a new thing. Just taking the big five Canadian banks for example, they all started paying their first dividends in the 1800's. In fact BMO stretches as far back as 1829.
I agree with the points you are making. I was referring to the noticeable increase in the financial press about dividend stocks as a safe haven in the financial storm. It seems that articles about dividend payers are popular again. I recall that back a few years about, when the average dividend yield was much smaller, the financial press was getting close to calling for the death of dividend yield as a strategy, replaced by stock buybacks.

My antenna tends to watch for popular-ism in the financial press as a contrarian signal.
From a personal perspective, a few years ago I was more concerned about Canadian companies flocking towards and converting to the income trust concept. It would have mean't a huge change in strategy regarding my taxable portfolio, one that I'm not all that sure I could of adapted to.
couponstrip
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 552
Joined: 14 Jan 2007 15:20

Post by couponstrip »

Just try bringing it up with your friends over a beer. Try explaining that the dividend rate tends to go up with many stocks even if the mv is down. What? Huh? The subject will be quickly changed and you might see some surreptitious rolling of eyes.
Yes but those friends would change the subject on any financial matter because it doesn't interest them which is why they usually leave these matters to their financial advisor.....and their financial advisor is on the dividend growth bandwagon and has all of her client's money invested as such.

I agree with PI here. Dividend investing is very popular and gaining. I was invited by a friend to a presentation put on by CIBC wood gundy about the "present state of the markets" a few months ago, and the advisor making the presentation was hawking the dividend growth strategy like it was the second coming of you know who. That gives me the willies. The implied conceit of handpicked dividend growth stocks is that it will beat the average market returns. However, history has not rewarded portfolios that concentrate their holdings in the same fashion that the rest of the world does. Hence, the strategy is adding more risk with only theoretical market-beating returns. With the increasing popularity, I don't think this strategy will be rewarded for the increased risk.

I wonder about the interchangeable use of value investing and dividend growth investing. Dividend growth investing might by a type of value investing, but does a value investor usually just pursue moderate-high yielding dividend stocks or dividend growth stocks?
Locke
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 120
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 17:11

Post by Locke »

skepticus wrote:
Locke wrote:...though I'm already part wrong with my earlier purchases of BNS.
How so ?
Classic problem of buying too early think it was a value investment. Though on the flip side I did purchase it for dividend growth, just I start off with lower yield.

Bought in June @ 50, later on @ 40 and just this past week @ 30 and I don't plan on keeping that trend.

Though at least I am accumulating enough shares to employed covered call writes to help generate additional premium. Which is really working well for my MFC investment.
Locke
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 120
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 17:11

Post by Locke »

Peculiar_Investor wrote:
Locke wrote:I guess I am a bit more optimistic than you.

That's a 50% haircut from their highs, I guess it's possible. At the same time, I'm of the opinion that most of if not all the bad news has been priced in. Then again the problem with value investing, is that you tend to be too early.

The yields are drawing me in. Dividend tax credit and interest deductibility and all that.

I guess we'll see who's more accurate as time goes along though I'm already part wrong with my earlier purchases of BNS.
I'm an optimist also, but as a contrarian, I'm beginning to get a bit worried that everyone is jumping on the dividend yield bandwagon. While I value being paid a dividend to wait for capital appreciation, I cannot help but wonder, who is on the selling side of the transaction? If everyone is chasing the dividend payers, is this a good thing?

A recent book that I've read, The Only Three Questions That Count by Ken Fischer springs to mind here. The question are:

Q1: What do you believe that is actually false?
Q2: What can you fathom that others find unfathomable?
Q3: What the heck is my brain doing to blindside me?

I'm still working on my answers to all three questions.
I understand where you are coming from. I'm basing on the assumption that with all these record institutional selling that they are forced sales. Record mutual fund redemptions and the general search for liquidity.

Of course, in the grand scheme of things the premises I brought up are assumptions. That I may be leaving a better entry point if I'm more patient and getting a better yield based on purchase price.

I'm still an amateur at this but I'm hoping this recession will provide me with a buying opportunity for a base to build my portfolio.
JaydoubleU
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 3103
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 22:52

Post by JaydoubleU »

P.I.

I understand your point. When certain stocks get highlighted in the media I also feel somewhat skeptical. But even though dividend stocks are being constantly recommended, it doesn't appear as though investors are rushing in-- 'cept for us, of course :)

I picked up 100 shares of BCE @ 21.50 today. Reasons: 1. I'm a sucker for dividends: Like a cat to the can-opener 2. nearly 7% yield. 3. hints by management that more goodies to be announced at the upcoming annual meeting in Feb. 4. classic boring dividend bluechip that used to be a core holding of every portfolio. 5. if it's good enough for Shakespeare, it's good enough for JW :) 6. P/E of 5.4 and P/B a little over 1.1 make this a great value play; much cheaper than any of the other telcos. 7. already own some RCI.B 8. I see little downside and a good 50% upside from here. 9. fat, sweet, juicy, cash dividends :D
User avatar
Shakespeare
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 23396
Joined: 15 Feb 2005 23:25
Location: Calgary, AB

Post by Shakespeare »

if it's good enough for Shakespeare, it's good enough for JW
I don't do any stock analysis. Instead, I stick to blue chips with the financial mass to get through extended rough periods...so even if they fail you can see it coming. :wink:
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Dividend Growth Investor
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 133
Joined: 16 Aug 2008 17:23
Contact:

Post by Dividend Growth Investor »

couponstrip wrote:
Just try bringing it up with your friends over a beer. Try explaining that the dividend rate tends to go up with many stocks even if the mv is down. What? Huh? The subject will be quickly changed and you might see some surreptitious rolling of eyes.
Yes but those friends would change the subject on any financial matter because it doesn't interest them which is why they usually leave these matters to their financial advisor.....and their financial advisor is on the dividend growth bandwagon and has all of her client's money invested as such.

I agree with PI here. Dividend investing is very popular and gaining. I was invited by a friend to a presentation put on by CIBC wood gundy about the "present state of the markets" a few months ago, and the advisor making the presentation was hawking the dividend growth strategy like it was the second coming of you know who. That gives me the willies. The implied conceit of handpicked dividend growth stocks is that it will beat the average market returns. However, history has not rewarded portfolios that concentrate their holdings in the same fashion that the rest of the world does. Hence, the strategy is adding more risk with only theoretical market-beating returns. With the increasing popularity, I don't think this strategy will be rewarded for the increased risk.

I wonder about the interchangeable use of value investing and dividend growth investing. Dividend growth investing might by a type of value investing, but does a value investor usually just pursue moderate-high yielding dividend stocks or dividend growth stocks?
I tend to read dividend related news every day, thus I am biased. I do think that the Canadian Media might be talking a lot about dividend growth stocks.. I guess as a contrarian you want to avoid these as such an overcrowded strategy would be dissapointing to investors. Or would it?

Even if the dividend growth strategy gets overcrowded, but the companies keep on raising their dividends.. Then dividend growth investors would be able to achieve their goals much sooner.. I am fine selling TD @ $200/share.. Any takers?

As for the US, I don't think anyone likes the dividned growth approach except for me and a couple of other people :-). Some investors got burned from chasing yields, but now we have a new breed which is not trusting dividends and wants companies to invest in lavish corporate lifestyles as opposed to paying out dividends..
http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/
JaydoubleU
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 3103
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 22:52

Post by JaydoubleU »

I don't do any stock analysis. Instead, I stick to blue chips with the financial mass to get through extended rough periods...so even if they fail you can see it coming.
Just kidding, man. I noticed that you picked some up last week, and I spent the weekend reading the reports and mulling it over. In a market in which cash is king, BCE with its $3 billion stash is just where I want to hide.

I also like these great blue chips that are trading near BV.
par4
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 525
Joined: 26 Feb 2005 00:36

What did you buy?

Post by par4 »

Bought some more BCE yesterday sold CNR and Berkshire to-day
User avatar
Rickdl
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 260
Joined: 28 Aug 2006 16:39
Location: Milton, Ontario
Contact:

Post by Rickdl »

I bought MPT.UN today because of the great synergy between Electricity generation and Senior long-term-care homes (the 2 sectors this fund invests in). Combination of senior homes and energy production, wow. :roll:

Plus the yields at 24% is nice.

Of course, I bought it today at 4.32 and it dropped to 4.12 right after, so as always, my timing is impeccable.
Locked