NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

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chiaroscuro
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NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by chiaroscuro »

Any thoughts on this electricity producer for the Ontario market? Pays almost 9 %?
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Post by sydney2 »

We own some NPI, it has been in our account since the old full brokerage days. This was a good recommendation for us, and one of the few income trusts we have left. The acb is $8.78 with a distrib. of $1.04, they have some long term contracts and have been expanding in the last few years.
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2011?

Post by Beaver »

Does anyone know how this fund would be positioned to deal with the taxation that starts in 2011? Or how the distributions would likely be affected? :?:
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Post by AltaRed »

See their Investor Presentation and in particular Slides 12 and 29. I think it suggests they will stay in trust form.
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Thank you

Post by Beaver »

Thanks Alta Red. Lazy investor that I am, that slide show constitutes DD for me (even if it isn't), so I've taken the plunge at $12.80. It's good to see that they are preparing for 2011 by sequestering some of their current cash flow.
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Risk

Post by Beaver »

Now that I've bought, it occurs to me that as 2011 approaches, there is risk of deterioration of the unit price as investors anticipate the effects of the new tax on distributions.
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Re: Risk

Post by AltaRed »

Beaver wrote:Now that I've bought, it occurs to me that as 2011 approaches, there is risk of deterioration of the unit price as investors anticipate the effects of the new tax on distributions.
Many would say the change is already priced in since 'everyone' knows about the upcoming change. I think there could still be some impact come 2010 due to some investors being so addicted to current distributions, they are in denial. How much no one really knows.
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Post by sydney2 »

We have owned Northland Power since it first came out, it was one of the recommended investments from our full service broker and it is one of the ones that we didn't sell after Oct. 31/06. We will continue to hold it and feel the underlying business is well rounded, it has paid us well over the years and if the dividend decreases that is ok, I feel going forward their management is going in the right direction.
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Northland Power

Post by GWN789K »

Anybody know much about Northland Power npi.un?

Can they keep paying their distribution?

Any chance of growth for the company in the future?

They are paying out a distribution of $1.03 per unit and with a unit price of $13.00 that works out to 8% yield.

According to the financial statements and outlooks available their EPS is only about $.5o per share.

Depreciation and amortization works out to be about $.45 per share
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by chiaroscuro »

Sold it recently. I too was worried about the distribution going forward. I had two years of lovely dividends and a little share price bump too.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

12% jump yesterday. Anyone know what's going on? Others like ENF and FTS way down. ?? :?
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

Taking a pounding lately. This article today probably didn't help, although they call a spade a spade.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... e13745618/

I'm hanging on for the ride. The long term prospects are still very good. I do disagree with the European wind farm bid, however.
The payout is definitely higher than 100%, but unlike Trans Alta, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Thoughts?
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by DividendLuvr »

Agreed on the long-term value. I just opened a position in this yesterday.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by Mike Schimek »

Thoughts?
Wrote a long post that got eaten. Not going to retype it -(

Don't buy this stock, it's earnings yield is 3% and it's price to real book is 3x. If you bought the entire company and held it for 25 years, which is the length of time their PPE will last at current DPN rates you'd get your money back.

Stick the money into something better you already own, It's not hard to find something with a better P/E than 33 and Price to book < 3.

The people who own this stock are probably dividend zombies and institutionalized investors.

That's my 2 cents, sorry if anyone who owns it is insulted.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by DividendLuvr »

Mike Schimek wrote:
Thoughts?
Wrote a long post that got eaten. Not going to retype it -(

Don't buy this stock, it's earnings yield is 3% and it's price to real book is 3x. If you bought the entire company and held it for 25 years, which is the length of time their PPE will last at current DPN rates you'd get your money back.

Stick the money into something better you already own, It's not hard to find something with a better P/E than 33 and Price to book < 3.

The people who own this stock are probably dividend zombies and institutionalized investors.

That's my 2 cents, sorry if anyone who owns it is insulted.
Not insulted personally, but really no need to refer to owners in pejorative terms.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/northland ... 00799.html

These results are very refreshing. However, do they show the way forward to really getting that payout ration south of 100%? They show a free cash flow payout ration of 63% and 84% if reinvested dividends are factored in.

Thoughts?

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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

I don't own it, so I didn't read more than the headlines, but they looked pretty good. The problem with NPI is the sector, ISTM. Friday, with the surprisingly strong jobs report, all the utilities got whacked. They now seem to be wavering, waiting for the next bit of good or bad news. Some of the pundits say the US is getting stronger and tapering is coming. We saw the effects of just the HINT of tapering on the utilities/telecoms and other defensives last spring. I would imagine when tapering really begins, that a significant sell-off in utilities will take place.

This is not to say that I'm getting out of them. Just that I am waiting for real value to appear. At the moment, the sector still looks expensive.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

Why do some companies cherry pick results for headlines to make it seem like they are doing better than they really are?

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/north ... 00488.html

Net income was actually down.

Northland IS improving, but they have a long way to go with this pipeline of projects.

Hanging in there (even if reading their results is like fingernails on a chalkboard).

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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by 2 yen »

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/northland ... 57164.html

Mr. Market is starting to pay attention to NPI - in a good way. Up almost 4% on these results. Not at its all time high, but this is not a frothy market, so can live with what's going on.

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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

Sounds like Northland is either putting itself up for sale, or looking for a partner:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... 106143-001
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by Descartes »

JaydoubleU wrote:Sounds like Northland is either putting itself up for sale, or looking for a partner:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... 106143-001
This teasing statement was well received by the market: up 7 1/2%
If I still had it (sold many years ago), I would sell it on this fluffy news today.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by schmuck »

Descartes wrote: I would sell it on this fluffy news today.
Care to elaborate on that?
It was one of the few orders I got filled with the Brexit fallout. Got interested in it after Raymond James pegged it as a strong buy with expectations of increase earnings when their North Sea project come on stream. It seemed to be in the in the right sector, and the numbers looked ok. Not all that familiar with its trading pattern yet, and don't know what to make of today's statement.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by Descartes »

schmuck wrote:
Descartes wrote: I would sell it on this fluffy news today.
Care to elaborate on that?
It was one of the few orders I got filled with the Brexit fallout. Got interested in it after Raymond James pegged it as a strong buy with expectations of increase earnings when their North Sea project come on stream. It seemed to be in the in the right sector, and the numbers looked ok. Not all that familiar with its trading pattern yet, and don't know what to make of today's statement.
sell = the price has, I think, never been this high (since I bought it, then sold it, till now) and they have never been able to get their payout ratio below 100%.

fluffy = without substance yet encouraging to those hoping for acquisition: why are they making this announcement without a buyer or a partner mentioned? If they are expecting a massive increase in earnings then why are they fishing for a sugar daddy?

today = people are hoping it is going to be snapped up at a premium and so they piled on today ..but what if no one is interested?

Anyway..maybe I am just too sceptical these days. I don't wish you any ill well - good luck with it.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by AltaRed »

The way I read the press release is NPI has more (and larger) opportunities than they can digest (regardless of new equity and debt issues) and they are bleeding way too much in the way of distributions to fund them. They can't cut back distributions without destroying unit price and they need new equity to finance the flood of opportunities. What I see is essentially an open invitation for someone to come knocking for a massive infusion of capital to fund their opportuniities. For that, they will give up their first born and their left nut. My one and a half cent gut feel.
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Re: NORTHLAND PWR (Symbol-NPI.UN)

Post by JaydoubleU »

The way I read the press release is NPI has more (and larger) opportunities than they can digest (regardless of new equity and debt issues) and they are bleeding way too much in the way of distributions to fund them. They can't cut back distributions without destroying unit price and they need new equity to finance the flood of opportunities. What I see is essentially an open invitation for someone to come knocking for a massive infusion of capital to fund their opportunities. For that, they will give up their first born and their left nut. My one and a half cent gut feel.
That would be my reading too. NPI trades at about 20x EV/EBITDA, which is fantastically expensive (and before today's jump). The founder and a major shareholder, James Temerity, sees a golden opportunity to cash in on the extreme valuation and become even richer than he already is. Meanwhile, depending on who kicks the tires and what comes of this, Temerity may end up being a key part of a much larger renewable entity.

How do you say "25 dollars a share" in German? But a US outfit might get interested: PEGI? Or maybe Brookfield.
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