gyrfalcon - thanks for bringing that up; my key question regarding their results is where their equity market exposure is centered. 2/3's of their equity exposure is in Asia (page 8 of the presentation).
I would have expected a little less risky betting. Instead they seem to be willing to bet the farm on emerging markets and a big recovery in Japan. Perhaps they know something, or perhaps their operations growth there has made them blind to other risks.
Looking deeper, their investment in Asian markets is completely out of step with where the bulk of their business comes from. Japan, Hong Kong, while growing, only represent a tiny fraction of their revenue base - yet their investments are completely lopsided there.
While there bets might pay off in the long run, given how volatile the Hang Seng can be, it still seems risky. I've assumed that other companies have similar exposure - the lure of China is awfully strong. My homework this weekend is to do an analysis of Asian markets to see where the trends are likely to head; knowing that would be a useful clue for determining direction for financial orgs with that exposure... for next quarter. In addition a stronger Canadian dollar (than even today, if it should come to pass) will also have an increased negative impact on Manulife.
Meanwhile Canada chugs along near a record high... (and its own set of issues and risks).
edit: Scotia Capital has this to say about them:
Volatility increases and earnings quality still difficult to decipher - CEO to step down. This, combined with the announcement that CEO D'Alessandro will step down May 2009, all suggests that MFC's valuation premium versus the group will more than likely continue to contract. Given potential management changes we expect no near term acquisition catalyst.
Source of Earnings Analysis suggests that outside of the negative impact of the equity markets, experience gains/assumption changes were exceptionally large, helping EPS more than normal, the extent to which may not necessarily be sustainable.