Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Taggart »

My only purchases of CNR for the taxable portfolio were back in 2009 and haven't sold any yet. Since then it's been a good performer, but not the best so far, in the Canadian Industrial sector I own. I've found over the years, the winners more than make up for my mistakes. I still keep fully focused on the dividend and what a company's management does with it. That more than anything else determines when it's time to sell. Any capital gains incurred while holding are secondary and just icing on the cake. Needless to say since the industrials have been an outperformer so far this year, I won't be adding any extra cash to this sector for a while.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Lazy Ninja »

Good stuff, all. Thanks for replying. I'm glad I posted. Lots to reply to here.
like_to_retire wrote:Buy good companies and hold.
Such a concise answer to such a rambling question. I had a feeling someone would cut through my nonsense and get to the heart of the matter. If that's not the primary takeaway from all this for me, it's certainly up there.
Peculiar_Investor wrote:If you are using earnings + dividend growth as a valuation metric, one should expect the stock price to be increasing at least at the rate of this growth rate, without any expansion of P/E ratio.
Assuming that's the Gordon equation you're referring to, I'm not a huge fan because I don't really feel it treats all stocks equally. It unjustly favours lower yielding, high growth stocks like CNR, in my opinion. I own quite a few stocks (ATD.B, HCG, SJ etc.) where the dividend growth rate, which is usually at least partially due to an increasing payout ratio, could lead to unrealistic expectations. In addition to a 40% increase from Stella Jones this year, I've also received a 50% increase from Valmont Industries. I don't consider the Gordon Equation particularly useful in such circumstances, unless one considers the impact on the payout ratio separately.

And what of P/E expansion at any rate? Surely, a good portion of CNR's rise in value over the past couple years specifically is speculative in nature, and not purely a function of increasing earnings and dividends. Would you not agree?

http://financials.morningstar.com/valua ... ture=en-US
Peculiar_Investor wrote:Based on the information you've provided I read that you've been prudently rebalancing whenever this stock exceeds whatever weighting you're comfortable holding.
It's debatable. That was likely true of the first time I sold. I'm less certain of the second time. I had room to let it run, I just didn't. I think the real problem was that I was looking for an excuse to do something. Generally speaking, I find buying quite easy and selling considerably more difficult. However, selling is a walk in the park compared to doing nothing for months at a time. That's my real weakness.
Peculiar_Investor wrote: Are you comfortable with the decision process that you used to trim the position? Maybe you should consider reviewing the process, not the outcome.
Bingo! Now you've gotten right to the heart of the matter. That's exactly what I needed to hear.

I think that's enough for now; I'm going out for lunch. Thanks guys.

Profit not Prophet, abose and Taggart, I'll get back to you as well, hopefully this afternoon.

(edited to correct a stupid phrasing)
Last edited by Lazy Ninja on 23 Jul 2014 20:16, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

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Profit not Prophet wrote:In my case I decided to sell a couple hundred cnr and buy a couple hundred nsc. Staying in same sector but spreading a little bit of the money across two companies as well as the border and currency as it happens.
Makes sense to me. It's more sensible than what I was doing anyway. I own some NSC as well. You may have noticed my other post yesterday in the "Dividend and distribution hikes" thread. I haven't owned Norfolk Southern for nearly as long as CNR, so have had less chance to screw up the buy and hold idea. I'm still up about 85% on it after a year and a half though. Rail stocks really have been on fire.
abose wrote: I wish more people would be brave enough to share their failures along with their successes
If only my mistakes were always so profitable! To me it's more complicated than labeling it a failure, but given the nature of my post, I can understand your choice of words. Running through your points quickly:

1. Good advice. I guess what I'm aiming for is to get over it, but not to forget it.

2. Me too, but for some reason I find it easier to leave the higher yielding stocks undisturbed. I remember Yielder posting several years ago that for stocks with a lower yield (less than 1.5%), he would sometimes sell a bit to take income in the form of a capital gain. That made sense to me, but I'll have to think about whether I should continue to distinguish between the two types, or just approach them all equally.

3. That makes sense to me too, and though I've read that specific recommendation on several occasions, I've never made the effort to write down my thought process (unless the occasional FWF post counts). I wonder if that's just laziness on my part.

4. Yes, that's essentially what P_I was referring to in part of his reply as well. Most of the purchases I've made have been with a hold forever mentality, but forever seems to be an occasionally surprisingly short period of time for me.

5. Agree. As Scomac has mentioned a few times on here, he's learned that you have to be willing to let things run a bit. I definitely need to work on that.

6. There are of course a number of perfectly good reasons to sell an investment. Making a mistake in our initial analysis, deteriorating fundamentals, simply needing the money, finding a better opportunity, and, my personal favourite, having so much success with one specific investment that it's grown to a huge holding, in which case trimming it would make sense, lest too much of our financial future is at stake on a single company. Unfortunately, I would say in retrospect that neither sale I made probably quite fit any of those categories.
Taggart wrote:My only purchases of CNR for the taxable portfolio were back in 2009 and haven't sold any yet. Since then it's been a good performer, but not the best so far, in the Canadian Industrial sector I own. I've found over the years, the winners more than make up for my mistakes. I still keep fully focused on the dividend and what a company's management does with it. That more than anything else determines when it's time to sell. Any capital gains incurred while holding are secondary and just icing on the cake
Words of wisdom from a man who seems to have buy and hold dividend investing down pat. I just need to be able to step back a bit and stay focused on what matters, rather than actively looking for reasons to do something. I'm relatively active in terms of how much I read about investing and think about my portfolio. I sometimes worry that having too much time on my hands can be bad for my investments. I shouldn't think about them quite so much, or I least need to start thinking about them differently. I've owned BNS and RY undisturbed for 6 years, PM for over 5, and BDX for just under 5 without buying or selling since the initial purchase, so perhaps there's hope for me yet!

Thanks again guys.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by My Own Advisor »

I think CNR is a stud. I just wish I could own more.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Taggart »

I always like to see positive signals from an analyst regarding an investment.

CN Rail could hike dividend by 45% – analyst

As for the predicted % dividend increase, I'll believe it when I see it.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by jdog_415 »

The price of CNR has increase quite a bit in 2H2014.

I'm trying to justify selling this vs holding it for longer. grossly gauging where it could land based on CP's P/E would be $125 but CP is making 2x the operating margin percentage, so maybe $90-100 speculation price on CNR is more likely.

I think I'm going to sell it in the next two weeks and make a pretty penny. I may buy some more if it's price decreases again to the low 70's... or I may miss out on it's ride to $100+ but a double digit return in a few months is still decent.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Welcome to FWF.

What was your investment thesis when you first purchased the CNR? Capital growth, dividends or something else. Is that thesis still intact? If so, is it just valuation that is giving your cause for concern? How does this holding fit with your overall portfolio, i.e. due to the 2H2014 increase you mention, has it reached a portfolio limit that you've set for yourself?

Sorry, no answers, just questions to ask yourself. This is the typical process that I follow for my stock selections and holdings.

I'm a buy and hold investor, so generally there are only a couple of reasons that would give me cause to sell. Something has changed about how the company is operating or being managed that makes me no longer wish to be a shareholder/owner of this company. Or due to price growth, the position has drifted outside my comfort range for a single holding. My investment policy statement targets me holding between 30-35 individual stocks between Canada and the US (I index outside of these markets). A stock gets reviewed, with the view to trimming, if the holding becomes greater than 5% of the stock holdings. The only other reason that I'd consider, I've found another company whose valuations are better (i.e. it is cheaper) and so I'd consider selling and switching into another name. In my experience, I've found this happens infrequently and usually it is connected to the first point, something about the company has changed.
jdog_415 wrote:I think I'm going to sell it in the next two weeks
If you've decided to sell, why wait, either set a price you're willing to accept and then wait until it is reached (i.e. a limit order) or sell it now and move on. What is so magical about "the next two weeks". CNR reported earnings about a month ago and won't be reporting again for another two months or so.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Taggart »

I just treat CNR the same as all the other thirty plus Canadian dividend stocks in the taxable portfolio. As long as the company keeps growing it's dividend year after year, a quick scan of the financials still meets with my approval, then I do absolutely nothing with it. I'm certainly not going to start cutting the flowers in the portfolio, get taxed on the proceeds, and then turn around and water the weeds.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Pickles »

I bought and sold CNR several times between 2007 and 2010, always at a tidy profit. The stock market was very volatile then and even blue chip stocks fluctuated wildly in price. I picked CNR as a reliable trader during that time. Eventually I decided to settle down and hang onto the latest batch.

In June 2012, I sold 1/3 of of my CNR at $86 for an 82% gain . I thought I had earned "a pretty penny". Since that time, the stock has split again and the price has increased almost 100% to $85.

Was I wrong to sell in 2012? Maybe but maybe not. I had two reasons for selling: My investments must pay me an income and CNR was paying only a small dividend. Meanwhile, its rise in price made it a disproportionate part of my stock portfolio. I decided to unlock some of the gain by selling 1/3 and reinvesting the proceeds in stocks with a higher dividend, thus raising my income and re-balancing my equities at the same time. I kept the other 2/3rds of my CNR stock so I have still benefited from its excellent return.

What reasons do you have, jdog_415? It sounds like you just have a vague idea that you should be taking profits "while they're there." Are you over-invested to CNR, though? Do you need the income from selling CNR for some important venture?

CNR appears to be thriving and growing. It raised its dividend more than 16% this year and 14.6% last year. So dividends are rising. As mentioned before, at the same time its share price increased almost 100%. If you cash in now, you will pay tax on your gain and you will miss out on possible future gain. Is there a good reason why you are in a hurry to do that at the end of the tax year when another large dividend increase is likely to be announced in January? Examine your rationale and your gut feelings before you decide.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Taggart wrote:I just treat CNR the same as all the other thirty plus Canadian dividend stocks in the taxable portfolio. As long as the company keeps growing it's dividend year after year, a quick scan of the financials still meets with my approval, then I do absolutely nothing with it. I'm certainly not going to start cutting the flowers in the portfolio, get taxed on the proceeds, and then turn around and water the weeds.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by scomac »

Taggart wrote: I'm certainly not going to start cutting the flowers in the portfolio, get taxed on the proceeds, and then turn around and water the weeds.
I've been guilty of that in the past. It made me realize that while trimming is desirable from a risk control perspective, selling out completely may not be the best alternative as it is extremely difficult to find stocks with that sort of performance potential going forward when looking at stocks with outsized gains and hoping to replace them. It seems to work better to sell the underperformers and ride the winners even if that is contrary to generally accepted principals.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by AltaRed »

I have found both thoughts can be true. Riding the winners often pays dividends but the risk of a calamity in a stock can be deadly if a holding is way outsized relative to its position in a portfolio. The best reminder for me is TRP when it fell to $10 (IIRC) and cut its dividend many years ago. Any one of the pipeline stocks today could fall by 50% with a major event. I have also held on to losers too long as well in more recent times. I believe in sufficient diversification (circa no more than 5% in one stock* and circa no more than 20% in one sector) to minimize the impact of black swan events. Each investor has to do what feels right to them - there is no single right answer.

* I trim winners to bring them back into line but do not sell out completely. My most recent example was ENB a year or two ago. Its fundamentals remain way out of whack but am not trimming again, or selling out completely yet, at least until it stalls completely, e.g. flat lining for a year or so with no dividend increases.
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Re: cnr stock (Symbol-CNR)

Post by bpither »

One of my biggest regrets was buying CN Rail in Feb 2009 and then selling it later on for a 60% gain under the premise of "trimming the winners" or "taking a profit off the table". There was nothing wrong with the company - it's gone up over 100% since I sold it not including the dividends and dividend growth.

Basically I stick to stocks which raise their dividends yearly which has served well in the past but on occasion emotion suspends good patient judgement.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

In the past 'What might you buy' topics, the idea of buying CNR on a dip comes up periodically. Perhaps that might happen this morning.

From my quick read of the headlines surrounding CN reports Q4-2017 and full-year financial results it would appear that CN misses Street 4Q forecasts and perhaps there will be a dip today.

Disclosure: Long-time CNR shareholder who has no plans to buy/sell any shares in the immediate future. They are well managed, diversified and fiscally conservative in their guidance.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

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CNR is a stock that I track daily. I think it is doing very well since Harrison turned it around. Now that's it's trading in the high 90s I am getting an itchy finger ;-)
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by BRIAN5000 »

Well don't see any buy notices in the buy thread no takers for CNR ?

A nice recession or pull back would knock some dollars off of this one, nice 5 year run.

New at TDDI Morningstar analyst report says Fair value estimate is $94 my wonky spreadsheet says buy around $89.42 - $94.13, a 2% yield gives about $82.50 unless you use a 10% dividend increase then that's about $90.75.

My industrial sector "stinks" I could sell a loser like BBD.b and split proceeds between CNR and SNC, huh, do I feel lucky?

Would like a nice US industrial no ideas at the moment.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

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BRIAN5000 wrote: 25 Jan 2018 13:57 Would like a nice US industrial no ideas at the moment.
a little boring but i have some UTX. most of the US industrials have really run up in value and look expensive (to me anyway)
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by BRIAN5000 »

rharvey199 wrote: 25 Jan 2018 18:37
BRIAN5000 wrote: 25 Jan 2018 13:57 Would like a nice US industrial no ideas at the moment.
a little boring but i have some UTX. most of the US industrials have really run up in value and look expensive (to me anyway)
Yeah I had my finger on the trigger when that one was cheap and just couldn't do it for some reason, GE or UTX pretty easy choice now.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

BRIAN5000 wrote: 25 Jan 2018 13:57 Would like a nice US industrial no ideas at the moment.
So not to derail (pun intended) this topic, I started US industrial stock ideas to follow-on to the question.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Announcements of sudden and immediate management changes are usually not a good thing. So it will be interesting to see the impact of today's announcement CEO Luc Jobin is leaving CN; Board appoints Jean-Jacques Ruest Interim CEO NYSE:CNI
CN Rail wrote:MONTREAL, March 05, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Board of Directors of CN (TSX:CNR) (NYSE:CNI) announced today that Luc Jobin is leaving CN effective immediately.

The Board has appointed Jean-Jacques Ruest Interim President and Chief Executive Officer until a permanent replacement is in place. Mr. Ruest has been with the company for twenty-two years, the last eight as Executive Vice-President and Chief Marketing Officer.

“The Board believes the company needs a leader who will energize the team, realize CN’s corporate vision and take the company forward with the speed and determination CN is known for,” said Board Chairman Robert Pace. “Mr. Ruest is well known to customers and investors, and is well positioned to focus the company and its very experienced and proven team of railroaders to rapidly address operational challenges during the transition.”

The Board believes that in an increasingly competitive marketplace, CN must respond with speed and innovation to retain its leadership position. The Board also recognizes the immediate operational and customer service challenges the company has been facing since Fall 2017 - led by high demand and insufficient network resiliency, coupled with severe winter weather conditions.
I'd hazard a guess that it might be related to the negative press that CNR has been getting lately, such as Rail Crunch Leaves Oil, Wheat Stranded on Canada's Prairies - Bloomberg.

Further on in the press release there is an attempt to reassure investors/analysts.
Company Reaffirms Guidance
Despite more difficult winter conditions and a very challenging start to the year, the Company remains confident about its future prospects. CN reiterated its fiscal year 2018 guidance to deliver adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of C$5.25 to C$5.40 this year and will continue to invest in the safety and efficiency of its network with a record capital program in 2018 of C$3.2 billion.
I suspect we might see some pricing pressure on the stock today.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by Profit not Prophet »

Thanks for the news snip. They do just seem to run and make money. A company running flat out busy isn't likely going broke so good news bad news. Nice to see a boss can get fired if they don't hit the marks.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by AltaRed »

My take is CN has been overly obsessed with operating ratios at the expense of bringing enough rolling stock and crews on line to meet contractual demand. I also suspect the contractual penalties of non-delivery are not enough to motivate CN's financial types to release the hand brakes more to meet demand. What is with all the cancellation of hopper car orders?

I don't buy the winter weather argument any more than any other winter. Given much of their business has a large moat is more likely the case. Abuse the customer until government interference is imminent.

These kinds of issues have surfaced time and time again over the decades. At many times, Canada has lost International customers of its resource products whether cereal grains, coal or other bulk commodities because of late/failed deliveries. It goes back at least 50 years to my own farm background. Perhaps time to correct that imbalance with more enforced contractual penalties against the rail companies.

Added: I do recognize the system has pinch points. To the extent product has to reach the West Coast, the system is constrained by geography. For example, there are only so many CP trains that can traverse Roger's Pass in BC and for both CN and CP in the Fraser River canyon. Perhaps the gov't should encourage more expansion on CP's southern route and persuade CN/CP get together on more track sharing there. That is what it took in the Fraser canyon many years ago... allowing one company's tracks to be one way westbound and the other company's tracks one way eastbound.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by ghariton »

This is not new. It was a problem when I worked for the transportation regulator in the 1980s, and it crops up again every seven to ten years.

One interpretation of the problem is that Canadian railways are much more tightly regulated on grain transport than for any other commodity. The revenues from grain transport are capped according to a complicated formula, but with the result that freight rate per ton-kilometer of grain is some eighty per cent of the average freight rate.

So it is not a surprise that the railways give low priority to grain transport, both in terms of rolling stock, and in terms of which train waits for which, when trains meet.

Generally, regulation has unintended consequences. Use it sparingly.

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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by AltaRed »

I thought the elimination of the 'Crow rate' unwound this 'problem' for the most part. Grain shipping rates have increased substantially to essentially market rates. https://www.producer.com/2016/05/transp ... ate-index/ Point taken though that there still is government regulation.

It is, of course, more complicated than that, given 'producer hopper car stock' as well. I suspect the real issue is allocating more locomotives and rail allocations to move the unit trains.

Added: Regardless, monopolies/duopolies must be regulated, just like a utility or pipeline.
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Re: Canadian National Railway (Symbol-CNR)

Post by beachcomber »

Well I am once again bottom fishing for CNR. Was asleep at the switch when it dropped into the $93 range. I am encouraged by Warren B. and Bill G.'s love of this stock - as well as the apparent never ending problems with constructing pipelines in Canada ;-)
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