AltaRed wrote: ↑08 Feb 2018 12:35
How individual holdings are doing is much less important than how the overall portfolio is doing. You are diversified, are you not?
I am @Alta. Except that I am down more than the index due to my choice of equal weighting across financials/utils/pipelines/telcos/consumer sectors. Down almost 10% from the highs in my cash dividend portfolio.
P.S. my protective puts on SPY helped recover some of my losses though, which I am very happy about.
I've looked a bit more into select pipeline stocks. I"m not certain this is the most accurate way to assess their financial health but here it is anyway.
Below, they're ranked based on the cash flow left after interest expenses & Dividends divided by current marketcap (i.e. Price).
IPL Handibly beats all of them. And if you do the calculation yourself, each of them are separated by fairly good margin. IPL has also been the most conservative and it's the only that's had Free cash flow even amidst yearly capex.
I've also included various other values for operating cash flow (Operating income before and after depreciation). I'm not 100% how each of the companies are calculating it, but it's there for you to examine.
For Enbridge, dividends and interest make a huge bucket. And for them to truly increase the dividend by 10%+ amidst raising rates, they'll have to consistently increase their cash flow by the same amount. Of note they did do it in the last 24 months (6300m vs 4960million).
Irwin wrote: ↑02 Feb 2018 07:05
I will be tempted at $41 if it gets there, and pauses for a few days.
Also would use a tight mental stop loss of no more than 5%.
Just two weeks 'till next earnings. Prob wise to wait.
It's starting to get tempting $40.81.
Looking to hold and forget for 10+ years... but it keeps hitting new lows.
Likely due to negative FERC ruling today that impacts all pipeline companies in the US. That is the thing with regulated utilities the fanboys fail to realize. Sometimes the regulators aren't so friendly.........
thedude99 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2018 14:37
Likely due to negative FERC ruling today that impacts all pipeline companies in the US. That is the thing with regulated utilities the fanboys fail to realize. Sometimes the regulators aren't so friendly.........
thedude99 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2018 14:37
Likely due to negative FERC ruling today that impacts all pipeline companies in the US. That is the thing with regulated utilities the fanboys fail to realize. Sometimes the regulators aren't so friendly.........
My understanding based on some (cursory) reading:
The ruling doesn't impact "all pipelines". It impacts MLPs. The ruling doesn't impact ENB directly because ENB itself is a C-corp. There is an indirect impact because ENB owns Spectra (NYSE:SEP), an MLP.
Wells Fargo issued a note saying that market overreacted to the FERC ruling.
I avoid falling knives like the plaque. I can't see Enbridge as a failing knife so a bought another 121shares this afternoon. Mr Market on a day to day basis can be as illogical as he President.
RBC’s initial reaction is that the decision will result in lower rates, and therefore lower cash flow for pipelines owned by MLPs. Among the companies that could be affected -- Enbridge has MLP exposure through Enbridge Energy Partners and Spectra Energy Partners, and TransCanada has MLP exposure through TC Pipelines. However, there may be “offsets and opportunities” for Enbridge and TransCanada, including consolidation. FERC’s ruling shouldn’t hurt Western Canada-focused stocks including Pembina Pipeline Corp., AltaGas Ltd, Gibson Energy Inc., Keyera Corp., Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd, and Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.
I usually don't buy into a stock until the technicals line up with my fundamentals ie "don't try to catch a falling knife." From my perspective the fundamentals of Enbridge and the concern over rising interest rates didn't explain the price drop since the beginning of the year. I kept asking myself "what does the market know that I don't know?' Foolishly I set aside my discipline (fundamentals +technicals) and bought into Enbridge at about $43 then the news broke about the U.S. tax ruling with respect to pipelines and MLPs. On March 15th I learned what the market, at least some participants in the market already knew and thus is explained what appeared to be irrational selling of Enbridge over the last month or two.
"If you have been in a poker game for a while, and you still don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy."
rharvey199 wrote: ↑19 Mar 2018 10:39
getting pummelled (well kind of) again today. selling has to stop at some point doesn't it?
Seems like almost everything is taking it on the chin today. I would not read much into a price decline on a day like today.
but you would think after declining 13% (excl dividend) in 2017 and 18% (excl dividends) so far in 2018 that even on a day like this that the decline would be minimal. but i guess when you are in the doghouse it's hard to get out
ENB is becoming frustrating. Half of me is tempted to sell and take the losses now; the other half says now is the time to buy. I am almost certain that if I sell, it begins the long slow climb back to $60; if I buy, it continues to hit new lows daily for the next decade
JaydoubleU wrote: ↑20 Mar 2018 10:53
ENB is becoming frustrating. Half of me is tempted to sell and take the losses now; the other half says now is the time to buy. I am almost certain that if I sell, it begins the long slow climb back to $60; if I buy, it continues to hit new lows daily for the next decade
You might have a poorly written IPS.
IMHO if your IPS is written correctly it should cover situations like this. It may say something like I have a core position in ENB and if the wind blows in the right direction you may overweight your position up to xxx. It should have some buy and sell directions maybe not written in stone but at least some strong guidelines. When you get frustrated you go back and read what you decided in a previous time frame. I bought a few 100 ENB at a higher price for wifes portfolio we WERE at core weight may add a bit more once I've stopped buying other things. Sounds like your thinking pretty short term?
cost basis $25.70
This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed
SkaSka wrote: ↑20 Mar 2018 12:29
Seems cheap, been buying lots recently, cost basis at $41, YMMV.
i said the same thing about Concordia In no way do i consider ENB in the same league as CRX but it's a reminder for me not to chase things that are going down and wait for a bit of a bottom or turn before buying more.
It is especially frustrating as even the experts appear to be split between "screaming buy" and "don't touch with 10 foot pole". If the dividend is safe, I would think that it would be a buy but obviously the market says otherwise. This type of situation is either the lesson that one is better off indexing or conversely (if buying is fruitful in the future) that one can make money by buying value. I'm trying to figure out which lesson is appropriate.
If life seems jolly rotten, then there's something you've forgotten -- and that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing. - Eric Idle
I solve that problem by limiting the amount I invest in any one stock. Once the cap is reached, I sit: if it comes back, fine; if it drops the dividend, I sell all immediately.
If you choose stocks with solid management, more will come back than will cut the dividend. Enbridge can sell excess stuff.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
I solve that problem by limiting the amount I invest in any one stock. Once the cap is reached, I sit: if it comes back, fine; if it drops the dividend, I sell all immediately.
Seems like a good policy. I have tended to overweight companies I like--perhaps too much, and occasionally I make the mistake of doubling down on "losers."