NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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big easy
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

Post by big easy »

https://www.producer.com/2018/01/dairy- ... omber-day/
Dairy farmers call TPP signing a ‘somber’ day

The TPP-11 could mean hundreds of millions or billions in new agri-food sales to Japan and other nations. The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association expects additional beef exports of $200 million because TPP will reduce tariff levels in Japan.

But the trade deal may have negative consequences for Canada’s dairy sector.

Under the agreement, the other 10 nations will have market access that equals 3.25 percent of Canada’s annual milk production.
Somber Day? We're allowing access to 3.25% of the Canadian diary market. Big deal.
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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big easy wrote: 25 Jan 2018 00:20 https://www.producer.com/2018/01/dairy- ... omber-day/
Dairy farmers call TPP signing a ‘somber’ day

The TPP-11 could mean hundreds of millions or billions in new agri-food sales to Japan and other nations. The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association expects additional beef exports of $200 million because TPP will reduce tariff levels in Japan.

But the trade deal may have negative consequences for Canada’s dairy sector.

Under the agreement, the other 10 nations will have market access that equals 3.25 percent of Canada’s annual milk production.
Somber Day? We're allowing access to 3.25% of the Canadian diary market. Big deal.
Well I suppose if you're barred from exporting and all you're really capable of doing is managing the downsizing of your market, then it's just another in a series of somber days.

For the life of me I don't know how these people don't wake up and smell the coffee that the only was out of this mess is to scuttle the entire scheme and start competing on the global market, but I think they've been convinced that they can't and the bureaucracy that's in places is there to remind them of that on a daily basis! :roll:
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big easy
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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What's stopping them from exporting besides the fact their product is crap? It's disappointing to eat some of that orange pulp they call cheese. I paid $12 for a block of made in Canada Gouda the other day that I had to throw out. Tasted like cardboard but I guess it won't kill you.
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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big easy wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:57 What's stopping them from exporting besides the fact their product is crap? It's disappointing to eat some of that orange pulp they call cheese. I paid $12 for a block of made in Canada Gouda the other day that I had to throw out. Tasted like cardboard but I guess it won't kill you.
The whole point of supply management is to limit the amount you produce so that you can charge a higher price by getting the supply demand metrics in balance. Imports are limited to protect the domestic producer and in exchange for that you can't be producing for export or at least not much beyond the freeboard necessary to make the system work.
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 19:35
big easy wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:57 What's stopping them from exporting besides the fact their product is crap? It's disappointing to eat some of that orange pulp they call cheese. I paid $12 for a block of made in Canada Gouda the other day that I had to throw out. Tasted like cardboard but I guess it won't kill you.
The whole point of supply management is to limit the amount you produce so that you can charge a higher price by getting the supply demand metrics in balance. Imports are limited to protect the domestic producer and in exchange for that you can't be producing for export or at least not much beyond the freeboard necessary to make the system work.
In addition to that, there are formal caps on Canadian exports of dairy products, as given in Table 1 in this briefing note. Canada was successfully sued by the U.S. and New Zealand of subsidizing its dairy exports, against WTO rules. Canada lost in 2000. As part of a settlement, Canaa agreed not to increase the amount by which it subsidizes its dairy exports. But since our dairy farmers are high cost producers, as scomac says, the only way they can sell in other markets is if they are subsidized by the Canadian government. So effectively Canadian exports are capped.

They did it to themselves, by building up protectionist walls, rather than becoming more efficient.

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big easy
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

Post by big easy »

ghariton wrote: 25 Jan 2018 22:29
scomac wrote: 25 Jan 2018 19:35
big easy wrote: 25 Jan 2018 15:57 What's stopping them from exporting besides the fact their product is crap? It's disappointing to eat some of that orange pulp they call cheese. I paid $12 for a block of made in Canada Gouda the other day that I had to throw out. Tasted like cardboard but I guess it won't kill you.
The whole point of supply management is to limit the amount you produce so that you can charge a higher price by getting the supply demand metrics in balance. Imports are limited to protect the domestic producer and in exchange for that you can't be producing for export or at least not much beyond the freeboard necessary to make the system work.
In addition to that, there are formal caps on Canadian exports of dairy products, as given in Table 1 in this briefing note. Canada was successfully sued by the U.S. and New Zealand of subsidizing its dairy exports, against WTO rules. Canada lost in 2000. As part of a settlement, Canaa agreed not to increase the amount by which it subsidizes its dairy exports. But since our dairy farmers are high cost producers, as scomac says, the only way they can sell in other markets is if they are subsidized by the Canadian government. So effectively Canadian exports are capped.

They did it to themselves, by building up protectionist walls, rather than becoming more efficient.

George
I didn't think our dairy farmers were subsidized, just protected from foreign competition through quotas and uncompetitive. That would be the main reason they can't export unless they are dumping product below their cost. Likewise, I thought supply management would only apply to domestic production - its nice to have it both ways :evil:

Anyway, 3.25% is hardly going to break the system but perhaps it will be death by a thousand cuts - I can only hope! Remember when the law required margarine to be that unnatural orange colour so consumers would not confuse it with butter? Outrageous.
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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big easy wrote: 27 Jan 2018 11:25 Remember when the law required margarine to be that unnatural orange colour so consumers would not confuse it with butter? Outrageous.
AFAIK, that's still the law in La Belle Province.
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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Why am I not surprised?
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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ghariton wrote: 22 Jan 2018 00:54 Lots of posturing, of course. But I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of a trade deal between the U.S. and Mexico that excludes Canada.
And now
The United States trade czar is expressing frustration with Canada in the NAFTA negotiations, even floating the idea of concluding a quick agreement with Mexico and sorting out a deal with Canada later, according to an American lawmaker who attended a meeting with him Wednesday.
Ron Kind is one of numerous congressmen who attended a rare briefing on Capitol Hill with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who Kind said brought up the notion of splitting the NAFTA negotiations as a way of advancing the talks.

"He thinks more progress has been made with Mexico. And that there might be a way to wrap things up and down and just maintain ongoing negotiations with Canada at that point," said Kind, a Wisconsin Democrat, as he left the meeting.
Just posturing, no doubt.

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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

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https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018 ... plies.html
Trump said the steel tariff will be 25 per cent, the aluminum tariff 10 per cent. He said he will impose the tariffs “next week,” that they will last “for a long period of time,” and that they will bring back jobs stolen by countries that have acted unfairly.
Why do I keep smelling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2% ... Tariff_Act ?
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Shakespeare wrote: 01 Mar 2018 18:14 Why do I keep smelling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2% ... Tariff_Act ?
I'm smelling it too

CNBC: Private companies add 213,000 jobs in January, easily topping expectations: ADP/Moody's Analytics
Private payrolls grew in January at a much faster pace than expected as the labor market shrugged off the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, according to data released Wednesday by ADP and Moody's Analytics.

Companies added 213,000 jobs this month, the data show. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected payrolls to grow by 178,000.

The strong jobs growth comes even as the U.S. government was shut down for 35 days in a standoff between President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats over his demand for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Why does Canada want to end the US tariffs? We said that we would rather have no deal than sign a bad deal, so the USMCA was a good deal for Canada (good enough not to be used as leverage against US steel and aluminum tariffs anyway...)

Trudeau urges ‘Donald’ to drop steel tariffs at USMCA signing

NOV 2018: Trudeau hopes Canada-U.S. tariff dispute can be solved this month

^ was it "solved"? I didn't find anything in the press

Maybe removal of tariffs will be used as a point of leverage to get Congress to pass the USMCA
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Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Why is Justin Trudeau still talking about American tariffs on steel and aluminum? Is it a negotiating tactic?

REUTERS: Canada PM speaks to Trump about tariffs, sources see little progress
“The Prime Minister raised the issue of steel and aluminum tariffs and expressed the need for the removal of tariffs,” a statement from Trudeau’s office said.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Thursday he was working hard to persuade Trump that the U.S. steel industry could be adequately protected by tariff rate quotas, rather than plain tariffs, on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Canadian industry officials say they are opposed to the idea of quotas.
It should be pretty easy to lift these American tariffs. All the media outlets tell me that Trump isn't that bright. I'm sure the tariffs will be gone soon :thumbsup:
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