Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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scomac
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by scomac »

Shakespeare wrote:Well, well, well. :roll:
A little early to draw generalizations, but you do have to wonder about the USA.
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Shakespeare »

The USA probably peaked in about 1990 (some say earlier).
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Shakespeare »

Paul Krugman: Our Unknown Country - NYTimes.com
I don’t know how we go forward from here. Is America a failed state and society? It looks truly possible. I guess we have to pick ourselves up and try to find a way forward, but this has been a night of terrible revelations, and I don’t think it’s self-indulgent to feel quite a lot of despair.
Not everyone agrees with Krugman - to put it mildly.

IMO, increased protectionism is likely. But that does not go hand-in-hand with low Walmart prices.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by kcowan »

Based on the Electoral Map showing county level results, Trump has really good representation of the people.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by found »

Trump wins, now what?
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scomac
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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found wrote:Trump wins, now what?
We move forward.

We somehow managed to survive the credit crisis of 2008 which had the entire world pitched on the abyss. This too shall pass and it might actually all work out. :shock:
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
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Descartes
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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Big nothing so far. Am I the only one disappointed? Is this the top secret "plunge protection" office at work? Where are my panic fueled bargains? :)
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Everything is fine. The media is just being overly dramatic at the moment. It will pass.

Except for the HuffPost. I think they're going to be dramatic forever. :lol:
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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Descartes wrote:Big nothing so far. Am I the only one disappointed? Is this the top secret "plunge protection" office at work? Where are my panic fueled bargains? :)
You missed them last Friday :)
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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deaddog wrote:
Descartes wrote:Big nothing so far. Am I the only one disappointed? Is this the top secret "plunge protection" office at work? Where are my panic fueled bargains? :)
You missed them last Friday :)
Try Mexico. EWW is down 8.5% on the day.

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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Sarah Sanders Delivers Her Nominee for 'Worst Prediction for the Year' — And It's a Doozy

I wonder what Paul Krugman's next prediction will be.

Paul Krugman doesn't survive because he makes correct predictions. He survives because he contributes to the narrative of the left. The following is a nice summary of all his wacky ideas.

The losing side of the general election tends to be overly dramatic. I just didn't expect the crying to last so long.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by milton »

For the last eight years, Credit Suisse has released an annual Global Wealth Report. Highly readable and free:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate ... eport.html

You can see from the report how countries and regions are doing. In 2017, 2.3 million new millionaires were created, half of which came from the US. The Eurozone countries minted 620,000 millionaires. Australia created 200,000. And India and China combined created 200,000. Even if the Western democracies have peaked, there's no place I'd rather have been born. And that statement, according to the Credit Suisse report, will likely be true for a long time yet. Things will change (for example, in 1800 China had the largest GDP in the world and then fell into the wayside for two centuries), but things change slow.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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Not exactly specifically limited to western democracies, but another bit of crystal ball gazing from Byron Wien of Blackstone.
Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.
Apparently, he doesn't have a stellar track record, but hey, something to mull over in the months ahead.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-ra ... -1.3785320
Canada is the sixth-best democracy in the world, but the United States has some work to do, according to the new Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index....

It is among 19 nations classified as “full democracies,” but is outranked by Norway, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand, and Denmark and tied with Ireland....

The U.S., with an overall score of 7.98, ranks 21st and is among 57 “flawed democracies,” says the EIU. Its score has been falling since 2006, dragged down performance in functioning of government and political participation. That’s being driven by a “serious decline in public trust in U.S. institutions,” income inequality, and increasingly bitter political polarization, says the EIU.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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One might ask what empowers the " Economist Intelligence Unit’" to determine who or what is good or bad?
I don't intend to offend anyone, that part is just a bonus.

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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Shakespeare »

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Wallace »

Interesting article by Paul Craig Roberts - "The period of American dominance has passed"
.....the US has accumulated absolutely stunning levels of national debt—beyond anything seen before in either absolute or relative terms. When this debt bomb finally explodes, it will spread economic devastation far beyond US borders. And it will explode, once the petrodollar wealth pump, imposed on the world through American naval and air superiority, stops working.
He argues that the development of S-300 and S-400 missiles by Russia makes the vast American Navy irrelevant. And if the Navy is irrelevant, the US no longer has the power to impose trading in $US.

Since the US missile attack on Syria, Russia has strongly hinted that it will supply Syria with the latest defensive missiles, and both Russia, China, and their allies appear to ready to trade oil and other products (??gold) in other than $US. This was suggested some years ago by Ghaddafi and some think it was a major factor in the US decision to destabilize Libya.

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/0 ... ce-passed/
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Shakespeare
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Shakespeare »

It's a very biased column, written by a Russian, although there is a grain of truth underneath. The US aircraft carriers have long been more vulnerable than the US will admit; a Canadian Oberon submarine photographed one through its periscope (well within torpedo range) without being detected. The long-range missile threat comes down to guidance - one wonders how long the necessary Russian satellites would be permitted to operate. I don't think there is any doubt that US power is well past its peak, but the US remains at this point the most powerful state in the world nevertheless.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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To a large degree, a country has to have sufficient GDP to become and sustain power status. While an oligarchy/dictatorship can target where they spend their money, the lack of an open economy will undermine it. Russia seems destined to repeat itself, going through the same cycle it went through before. The recent resurgence of Russia under Putin will again implode into civil chaos sometime after he is deposed OR he meets an untimely death and the economy collapses. Russia simply does not have the GDP to compete longer term. The trend https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... oduct-gdp/

OTOH, sheer numbers will drive China to the forefront in another decade or two. They will invest to eventually have a navy and air force that is on par with the USA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _(nominal)
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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One author I have (can't find the book at the moment) puts the US power peak at the Vietnam War, because that's when deficit spending began. I usually put it at the Gulf War, just after the breakup of the Soviet Union.But that's only a 25 year period; we are now well into relative decline.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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Is anyone still doubting that China will become the next world power? It is not longer a question of whether but when! Trump might just accelerate it by his lack of diplomatic skills.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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kcowan wrote: 29 Apr 2018 16:12 Is anyone still doubting that China will become the next world power?
That would be me.

I think that China is actually quite fragile. The rergions obey the center only loosely. Although this has improverd recently, it is still hard for Beijing to get everyone marching in the same direction.

Inequality is a serious problem and getting worse. The urban/rural divide is a ticking time bomb.

Demographics are unfavourable. The one-child policy is starting to bite back.

While the present regime is trying to root out corruption, they still have a very long way to go. Corrupt states tend not to stay focussed long enough to function as superpowers.

All this isn't to deny that China is posing a formidable challenge. It is. But I'm much less convinved about the inevitability of its eventual emergence as a superpower.

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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

Post by Shakespeare »

I think we will return to a multipower/multipolar situation.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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I have no doubt that China influenced North Korea to knuckle under. They will let Trump claim the credit.

If George thinks that China has little control what does he think about Trump?
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?

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ghariton wrote: 29 Apr 2018 16:56 All this isn't to deny that China is posing a formidable challenge. It is. But I'm much less convinved about the inevitability of its eventual emergence as a superpower.
I am thinking about it from a sheer 'number's perspective. They have 3+ times the number of people to eke out enough small gains over a large population to potentially force the issue. Theoretically, India might have a better chance with 'free enterprise' but they can't seem to get their act together either.
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