A little early to draw generalizations, but you do have to wonder about the USA.Shakespeare wrote:Well, well, well.
Have the Western Democracies peaked?
- scomac
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
The USA probably peaked in about 1990 (some say earlier).
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Paul Krugman: Our Unknown Country - NYTimes.com
IMO, increased protectionism is likely. But that does not go hand-in-hand with low Walmart prices.
Not everyone agrees with Krugman - to put it mildly.I don’t know how we go forward from here. Is America a failed state and society? It looks truly possible. I guess we have to pick ourselves up and try to find a way forward, but this has been a night of terrible revelations, and I don’t think it’s self-indulgent to feel quite a lot of despair.
IMO, increased protectionism is likely. But that does not go hand-in-hand with low Walmart prices.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Based on the Electoral Map showing county level results, Trump has really good representation of the people.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Trump wins, now what?
- scomac
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
We move forward.found wrote:Trump wins, now what?
We somehow managed to survive the credit crisis of 2008 which had the entire world pitched on the abyss. This too shall pass and it might actually all work out.
"On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?"
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1830
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Big nothing so far. Am I the only one disappointed? Is this the top secret "plunge protection" office at work? Where are my panic fueled bargains?
"A dividend is a dictate of management. A capital gain is a whim of the market."
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Everything is fine. The media is just being overly dramatic at the moment. It will pass.
Except for the HuffPost. I think they're going to be dramatic forever.
Except for the HuffPost. I think they're going to be dramatic forever.
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
You missed them last FridayDescartes wrote:Big nothing so far. Am I the only one disappointed? Is this the top secret "plunge protection" office at work? Where are my panic fueled bargains?
"And the days that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, well, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Try Mexico. EWW is down 8.5% on the day.deaddog wrote:You missed them last FridayDescartes wrote:Big nothing so far. Am I the only one disappointed? Is this the top secret "plunge protection" office at work? Where are my panic fueled bargains?
George
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Sarah Sanders Delivers Her Nominee for 'Worst Prediction for the Year' — And It's a Doozy
I wonder what Paul Krugman's next prediction will be.
Paul Krugman doesn't survive because he makes correct predictions. He survives because he contributes to the narrative of the left. The following is a nice summary of all his wacky ideas.
The losing side of the general election tends to be overly dramatic. I just didn't expect the crying to last so long.
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
For the last eight years, Credit Suisse has released an annual Global Wealth Report. Highly readable and free:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate ... eport.html
You can see from the report how countries and regions are doing. In 2017, 2.3 million new millionaires were created, half of which came from the US. The Eurozone countries minted 620,000 millionaires. Australia created 200,000. And India and China combined created 200,000. Even if the Western democracies have peaked, there's no place I'd rather have been born. And that statement, according to the Credit Suisse report, will likely be true for a long time yet. Things will change (for example, in 1800 China had the largest GDP in the world and then fell into the wayside for two centuries), but things change slow.
https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate ... eport.html
You can see from the report how countries and regions are doing. In 2017, 2.3 million new millionaires were created, half of which came from the US. The Eurozone countries minted 620,000 millionaires. Australia created 200,000. And India and China combined created 200,000. Even if the Western democracies have peaked, there's no place I'd rather have been born. And that statement, according to the Credit Suisse report, will likely be true for a long time yet. Things will change (for example, in 1800 China had the largest GDP in the world and then fell into the wayside for two centuries), but things change slow.
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Not exactly specifically limited to western democracies, but another bit of crystal ball gazing from Byron Wien of Blackstone.
Apparently, he doesn't have a stellar track record, but hey, something to mull over in the months ahead.Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-ra ... -1.3785320
Canada is the sixth-best democracy in the world, but the United States has some work to do, according to the new Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index....
It is among 19 nations classified as “full democracies,” but is outranked by Norway, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand, and Denmark and tied with Ireland....
The U.S., with an overall score of 7.98, ranks 21st and is among 57 “flawed democracies,” says the EIU. Its score has been falling since 2006, dragged down performance in functioning of government and political participation. That’s being driven by a “serious decline in public trust in U.S. institutions,” income inequality, and increasingly bitter political polarization, says the EIU.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
One might ask what empowers the " Economist Intelligence Unit’" to determine who or what is good or bad?
I don't intend to offend anyone, that part is just a bonus.
Science flies men to the moon. Religion flies men into buildings.
Science flies men to the moon. Religion flies men into buildings.
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Interesting article by Paul Craig Roberts - "The period of American dominance has passed"
Since the US missile attack on Syria, Russia has strongly hinted that it will supply Syria with the latest defensive missiles, and both Russia, China, and their allies appear to ready to trade oil and other products (??gold) in other than $US. This was suggested some years ago by Ghaddafi and some think it was a major factor in the US decision to destabilize Libya.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/0 ... ce-passed/
He argues that the development of S-300 and S-400 missiles by Russia makes the vast American Navy irrelevant. And if the Navy is irrelevant, the US no longer has the power to impose trading in $US......the US has accumulated absolutely stunning levels of national debt—beyond anything seen before in either absolute or relative terms. When this debt bomb finally explodes, it will spread economic devastation far beyond US borders. And it will explode, once the petrodollar wealth pump, imposed on the world through American naval and air superiority, stops working.
Since the US missile attack on Syria, Russia has strongly hinted that it will supply Syria with the latest defensive missiles, and both Russia, China, and their allies appear to ready to trade oil and other products (??gold) in other than $US. This was suggested some years ago by Ghaddafi and some think it was a major factor in the US decision to destabilize Libya.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/0 ... ce-passed/
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
It's a very biased column, written by a Russian, although there is a grain of truth underneath. The US aircraft carriers have long been more vulnerable than the US will admit; a Canadian Oberon submarine photographed one through its periscope (well within torpedo range) without being detected. The long-range missile threat comes down to guidance - one wonders how long the necessary Russian satellites would be permitted to operate. I don't think there is any doubt that US power is well past its peak, but the US remains at this point the most powerful state in the world nevertheless.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
To a large degree, a country has to have sufficient GDP to become and sustain power status. While an oligarchy/dictatorship can target where they spend their money, the lack of an open economy will undermine it. Russia seems destined to repeat itself, going through the same cycle it went through before. The recent resurgence of Russia under Putin will again implode into civil chaos sometime after he is deposed OR he meets an untimely death and the economy collapses. Russia simply does not have the GDP to compete longer term. The trend https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... oduct-gdp/
OTOH, sheer numbers will drive China to the forefront in another decade or two. They will invest to eventually have a navy and air force that is on par with the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _(nominal)
OTOH, sheer numbers will drive China to the forefront in another decade or two. They will invest to eventually have a navy and air force that is on par with the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _(nominal)
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
One author I have (can't find the book at the moment) puts the US power peak at the Vietnam War, because that's when deficit spending began. I usually put it at the Gulf War, just after the breakup of the Soviet Union.But that's only a 25 year period; we are now well into relative decline.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
Is anyone still doubting that China will become the next world power? It is not longer a question of whether but when! Trump might just accelerate it by his lack of diplomatic skills.
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
That would be me.
I think that China is actually quite fragile. The rergions obey the center only loosely. Although this has improverd recently, it is still hard for Beijing to get everyone marching in the same direction.
Inequality is a serious problem and getting worse. The urban/rural divide is a ticking time bomb.
Demographics are unfavourable. The one-child policy is starting to bite back.
While the present regime is trying to root out corruption, they still have a very long way to go. Corrupt states tend not to stay focussed long enough to function as superpowers.
All this isn't to deny that China is posing a formidable challenge. It is. But I'm much less convinved about the inevitability of its eventual emergence as a superpower.
George
The juice is worth the squeeze
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Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
I think we will return to a multipower/multipolar situation.
Sic transit gloria mundi. Tuesday is usually worse. - Robert A. Heinlein, Starman Jones
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
I have no doubt that China influenced North Korea to knuckle under. They will let Trump claim the credit.
If George thinks that China has little control what does he think about Trump?
If George thinks that China has little control what does he think about Trump?
For the fun of it...Keith
Re: Have the Western Democracies peaked?
I am thinking about it from a sheer 'number's perspective. They have 3+ times the number of people to eke out enough small gains over a large population to potentially force the issue. Theoretically, India might have a better chance with 'free enterprise' but they can't seem to get their act together either.
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