Inflation

Recommended reading, economic debates, predictions and opinions.

Over the next twelve months I expect

Deflation
1
2%
Steady prices (increases of less than 1%)
9
14%
Low inflation (1% to 3%)
42
66%
Medium inflation (3% to 6%)
9
14%
High inflation (more than 6%)
0
No votes
Don't know/don't care
3
5%
 
Total votes: 64

Davis
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Re: Inflation

Post by Davis » 25 Oct 2016 20:51

Flaccidsteele, can I ask why you picked an evil clown image for your picture? I've been wondering that for a while.
My path to financial freedom is described at adifferentpathblog.WordPress.com

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Flaccidsteele
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Re: Inflation

Post by Flaccidsteele » 25 Oct 2016 22:34

Davis wrote:Flaccidsteele, can I ask why you picked an evil clown image for your picture? I've been wondering that for a while.
It's memorable and draws the attention of many posters
Retired @ 40 after reading Munger/Buffett. I avoided a fragile retirement by avoiding conventional volatility management (diversification, re-balancing and asset-allocation). "Put 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund...the long-term results will be superior" - Warren Buffett

Davis
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Re: Inflation

Post by Davis » 26 Oct 2016 06:03

That it does!
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longinvest
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Re: Inflation

Post by longinvest » 24 Feb 2017 17:43

ghariton wrote:
My preference is for Total CPI, 126.5.
Agree. It's the one that best reflects my spending and standard of living.

If the CPI is higher that 130.3 for as reported in February 2017, for January 2017, I win. If it's lower, you win.
George,

According to Table 326-0020, the CPI (All-Items) for January 2017 was 129.5.

On a related note, beginning in January 2017, the the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures will be CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functio ... inflation/
Measures of Inflation

The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent midpoint of an inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 per cent. The inflation target is expressed as the year-over-year increase in the total consumer price index (CPI). The CPI is the most relevant measure of the cost of living for most Canadians because it is made up of goods and services that Canadians typically buy, such as food, housing, transportation, furniture, clothing, recreation, and other items.

The Bank also monitors a set of “core” inflation measures that allow the Bank to “look through” temporary changes in total CPI and focus on the underlying trend of inflation. In this sense, these core measures of inflation act as an operational guide to help the Bank achieve the total CPI inflation target. Beginning in January 2017, the Bank’s preferred core inflation measures will be CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. See Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target: Background Information – October 2016 for more information on these measures.
Here's a handy link to the historical values of the Bank of Canada's measures:
Consumer Price Index

We can see that the Bank's "Total CPI" is what Statistics Canada calls "All-Items CPI".
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ghariton
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Re: Inflation

Post by ghariton » 24 Feb 2017 21:12

Yes, you win this round. I will certainly buy you a beer or two if we ever get together physically. In the meantime, enjoy the virtual beer of your choice on me.

The Bank of Canada's replacements for core CPI are certainly interesting. I would expect them to track rather closely most of the time. But I can imagine events leading to differences as well.

Meanwhile, I'll continue to rely on the headline CPI for my planning, etc.

George
The plural of anecdote is NOT data.

longinvest
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Re: Inflation

Post by longinvest » 25 Feb 2017 09:00

George,
ghariton wrote:Yes, you win this round. I will certainly buy you a beer or two if we ever get together physically. In the meantime, enjoy the virtual beer of your choice on me.
Enjoying my virtual beer: :beer: :D

Yet, you're in a nice situation. Your portfolio has preserved more of its value than if inflation had been higher. I assumed a higher overall risk; I could have lost on both counts (bet and portfolio purchase power), specially with the recent bump in inflation (0.86% just this last month). :wink:
ghariton wrote: Meanwhile, I'll continue to rely on the headline CPI for my planning, etc.
That's what I do, too.
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pickmepickme
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Re: Inflation

Post by pickmepickme » 25 Feb 2017 12:06

George, you can send him a beer via this app. I saw this piece on CTV News the other night.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1063427

longinvest
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Re: Inflation

Post by longinvest » 25 Feb 2017 12:27

pickmepickme wrote:George, you can send him a beer via this app. I saw this piece on CTV News the other night.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1063427
Nah! I'd much prefer meeting in person at some point and having an awesome time discussing with George. I'll pay him a beer or two for the pleasure!
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Simple index portfolios | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic/international)stocks/(nominal/inflation-indexed)bonds | VCN/VXC/VAB/ZRR

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