Wallace wrote:[Canada is negotiating a trade deal with the EU right now
An interesting example. The deal has been years in the negotiating, is still not ratified, and perhaps will never be ratified. Such are the perils of negotiating trade deals. I sure hope that's not a precedent for UK -- EU.
In any case, I expect UK -- EU negotiations to be very tough indeed. The French have always bee jealous of all the financial functions being carried out in London. They have already started trying to move all financial clearing -- the "plumbing" of the system -- to Paris, with a few sops to the Germans. Expect lots more opportunism from the French, who never wanted the Brits in Europe anyway, and from other members.
Now the UK will not be dragged down by the problems of the Euro. But then it never was. So poverty in other EU member countries would not have been that much of a problem for the UK anyway.
All in all, I think that the UK will have to try to orient as much of its foreign trade as possible elsewhere, rather than Europe. But where? The best new opportunity is the TPP -- except that (1) it doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and (2) the UK isn't a candidate anyway. Maybe a deal with China, or perhaps India? Both of those are extremely tough negotiators, tougher than the Europeans.
Maybe the UK can apply to join NAFTA. Unfortunately, the timing is bad. Both Clinton and Trump are suggesting its dismantling, rather than its enlargement.
Reconstitute the Commonwealth? I don't think that the young even know what the Commonwealth is (or was).
I think that this is a very tough time to be looking for new trade deals. Protectionism around the world is surging.
So maybe the UK can go it alone. It is a gamble, but probably the best option the British have left.
The plural of anecdote is NOT data.